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The problem for me has been replying to posts. One, I lose all paragraph breaks... everything is run together and makes it difficult to read. Two, the "Quote Post" links don't work for me. I click it but the post I want to quote is not entered into this REPLY box. I've tried multiple browsers and it's the same with all of them. I've contacted the site and I've asked them what can I do to fix this issue... and I've heard nothing back from them.
Only if I EDIT my post after I submit it, can I then enter paragraph breaks... assuming I see that 5-Minute EDIT box. (Sometimes I don't.) |
lajohn | 18 |
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"What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence."
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theMatrix24 | 15 |
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There is zero evidence NFL games are rigged/scripted/predetermined, etc. Zero. Zilch.
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RSampsell | 31 |
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rosswin97: just because I flip heads 5 times in a row doesn’t mean the 6th time gonna be heads
Actually, that's a bad analogy.
You have a 50-50 chance of flipping a head or tail and the prior flips have no bearing on the next flip.
But if the Lions were 17 out of 20 on 4th down of three yards or less during the regular season, that's far, far from a 50-50 proposition. Furthermore, because humans are involved, the high percentage of prior successes could indeed come into play. (Confidence factor, etc.)
Your post seems to imply going for it ob 4th down, with a prior 17/20 successful percentage was not the right call. If that's the case, how high does the prior percentage have to be before you do think it's the right call?
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Espn80000 | 34 |
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replied to
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
in NFL Betting "If you find yourself in a POSITION to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error." |
vanzack | 735 |
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replied to
To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....
in NFL Betting kimberton: i guess it’s personal decision, but I don’t know how your saying it’s a bad idea to hedge and not guarantee a win. "Guaranteeing a win" is not always a smart move. It can cost you money. If your goal is to win as much $$$ as you can, which is usually the case, then yes, it's a bad idea to hedge. Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is leading by ten points with just two minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you win $1,000! (Your risk was $550.) I come along and offer to buy your ticket from you, right now, for $700. Do you sell it to me? If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money! There's still a few minutes left to play! Anything could still happen in this game! You paid $550 for it and I'm offering you $700 right here and now! It's guaranteed money! It's a guaranteed profit! Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $700. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than $700. Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball), that ticket is probably worth closer to to $950 or $1,000... or more. This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever. Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price. You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge. Let's say you bet a four-team parlay each and every weekend, for the next two years. Let's say you are fortunate enough to win the first three legs of your parlay each and every time. So you, with your logic to "guarantee a win," hedge your bet each time. Let's say I also bet a four-team parlay each and every weekend, for the next two years. I am also fortunate enough to win the first three legs each and every time. And yet I chose NOT to ever hedge and let it ride. You won 104 weekends in a row. You won every single weekend. You guaranteed a profit each and every week. And yet I, most likely, only won half of my bets. (In all probability, I lost that last leg about half the time.) And yet who has more money, me or you? Yes, I do. Do the math. Despite you not halving a single losing weekend, because of all of your hedging, I have more money than you. |
vanzack | 735 |
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Ah. Division winners. (And not just making the playoffs.) Thanks. Either way, you really should do the math. Estimate the overall probability of the event occurring. Give it an actual percentage, even though you don't see it happening. (Few people "saw" the Eagles losing at home to the Cardinals this past weekend, for example, but it happened.) After estimating the probability of the event, determine how much it will cost you to accept the buyout. I suspect you will be selling your ticket at a value far below what its true value is. You don't want to do that. If you do that regularly, you will not be a winner. Oh, sure you might be a winner short term, but that's not the goal. You want to be a winner year in and year out, not just on any particular weekend. |
unplucked_gem | 17 |
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The buyout is a type of hedging. If you want to maximize your long-term profits, do NOT hedge. Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is leading by ten points with just a few minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you win $1,000.00! (Your risk was $550.00.) I come along and offer to buy your ticket from you, right now, for $700. Do you sell it to me? If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money! There's still a few minutes left to play! Anything could still happen in this game! Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $700. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than $700.00. Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball), that ticket is probably worth closer to to $950. This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever. Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price. You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge. To put it another way, if you and I bet on the same teams/games, and you hedge whenever you can and I never hedge, I will very soon have more money than you. Maybe not that weekend... maybe not that month... but very soon. |
unplucked_gem | 17 |
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I'm not sure I understand the bet. You win the bet if Buffalo and Dallas and New Orleans all make the postseason? If so, you have to look at what happens long term. In order for the Saints to make the playoffs, they have to defeat the Falcons, and the Bucs have to lose to the Panthers. (Actually, there are other ways for the Saints to make the playoffs. For example, they can win and the Packers lose or tie plus the Seahawks lose or tie. However, we can ignore these other ways for the moment.) The Saints are favored by about 4. This corresponds to a winning percentage of about 63%. https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ The Panthers are underdogs by about 5 points. This corresponds to a winning percentage of about 25%. The chances of both events happening are the probability of the two individual events. .63 x .25 is roughly 16%. 16% of the time you will win $1,596, for a total of $25,536. 84% of the time you will lose $11, for a total loss of -$924. Your net for these 100 events is $26,460. This $26,460 is what you can expect if you let the bet stand, and played it out 100 times. (Naturally, you can adjust the winning percentages a tiny bit, if you don't feel they are accurate.) OR, it appears you can take the $156 buyout offer right now, for a total of $15,600. $156 x 100 = $15,600) This is what you can expect if you take the buyout, all 100 times. As you can see, the buyout offered to you is far short of what you would receive long term. Many posters here, like the1toturn2, will tell you to take the "guaranteed" money. Taking "guaranteed money" is not always a smart move and I can prove it with very simple examples. You have to think long term. (My apologies if my paragraphs are lost when I post this. I still am having a formatting problem when posting.) |
unplucked_gem | 17 |
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Cowboys likely the #2 Seed. Lions likely the #3 Seed. If they meet in the playoffs, it will be in Dallas.
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Irisheric777 | 31 |
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And again, my paragraphs are lost once I hit SUBMIT. I wish I knew why.
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ActionMagnet | 11 |
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There are three times when the game clock will stop when a ball carrier goes out of bounds after making a catch:
After a change of possession
After the two-minute warning of the first half
Inside the last five minutes of the second half
There is one situation when the runner will step out of bounds, and the game clock will continue to run in the last two minutes of the first half or the last five minutes of the second half. That situation is this: The clock will continue to run if the runner goes out of bounds BACKWARD after being contacted by a defender.
However, when a runner goes out of bounds at any other point in the game, the game clock will BRIEFLY stop to give the officials time to spot the ball. The game clock will resume as soon as the official gives the signal when the ball is spotted.
NFL owners approved the current clock rule for a runner going out of bounds after the 1990 season. (Before the rule change, the clock stopped whenever a runner went out of bounds. This was done in an effort to speed up the game. Halftime was reduced from 15 to 12 minutes at the same time.)
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ActionMagnet | 11 |
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Again, sorry for the paragraph formatting loss. I know that makes it harder to read. I still don't understand why my paragraphs are completely lost after I hit the SUBMIT button.
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BetBlazer | 12 |
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Meet Mr. Hedge. Mr. Hedge always hedges his bets.
Meet Mr. Money. Mr. Money never hedges.
Assume both of them make 100 parlay bets. For this example, we'll assume all parlays are a simple three-leg parlay, with the third leg being played on a later date than the first two legs.
Assume all 100 parlay bets start off with a win on the first two legs.
Mr. Hedge decides to hedge all of these parlay bets. He wants to "guarantee a profit." He does so, and of course, makes a small profit each time.
Mr. Money chooses not to hedge any of these parlay bets. He is not interested in guaranteeing a profit for THIS parlay. Instead, he is interested in his long term financial status.
Having starting with two winning legs, Mr. Money will, on average, win just half of these 100 parlays. (Assuming a random pick, he will lose the last leg, of course, approximately half the time.)
The result?
Mr. Hedge, who guaranteed himself a profit each time, will have LESS money than Mr. Money does at the end of this 100-parlay bet session.
Mr. Hedge paid a price each time he hedged. The cost of all of those hedged bets add up.
"Guaranteeing" yourself a profit is not always ideal.
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BetBlazer | 12 |
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This incident brings back memories. Short story. I grew up in a small town, in Michigan. When I was a kid, we watched the Detroit Lions. Every weekend during the season the Lions were on TV. I still remember how shook up I was when I saw Chuck Hughes die on the field. I remember how much it affected me, and how I cut out every newspaper clipping from the Detroit Free Press, over the next week, and posted the clippings on my bulletin board in my bedroom. At that time I was just ten years old. (Almost eleven.) He is still the only NFL player to die on the field during a game. |
MLMaverick | 146 |
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There's no evidence for gods. Not the god you worship, nor for any other of the thousands of different gods man has worshiped over the past few thousand years.
Our species (person sapiens) have been on this planet for at least 100,000 years.
Initially, for thousands and thousands of years our species suffered and died. Most of us dying in childbirth, the others having a life expectancy of about twenty-five to thirty years at the most. We died of our teeth, famine, struggle, war, suffering misery, malnutrition, and fear. In order to be a Christian, you have to believe for the first 97 to 98,000 years Heaven watches all of this with complete indifference.
And then, some 2,000 years ago it thinks, "Well, that's enough of that. It's time to intervene."
The best way to do this is by condemning someone to a human sacrifice somewhere in the less literate part of the Middle East. Oh, no, let's not appear to the Chinese, where people can read and study evidence. Let's go to the desert and have another revelation.
This is nonsense. It cannot be believed by a thinking person.
(Christopher Hitchens)
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lookingtowin | 53 |
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Good grief. It had nothing to do with the over/under. Nobody wanted to "kill it." Why do you say that? What evidence do you have for that statement? |
ValueDog | 32 |
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Again, the chances the Packers run a play (in an attempt to score) and end up losing the game (because of a fumble or because they do score and give the Rams the ball back, who quickly score and then onside kick it and quickly score again) is greater than the chances the Packers make the playoffs specifically because those extra seven points scored was enough of a difference to win the point differential tie-breaker that they otherwise would not have won, assuming this tie-breaker came into play at all. |
ValueDog | 32 |
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Interestingly enough, with three games left to play, with Dallas losing this past Sunday to the Jags, this game is almost meaningless. Philly, win or lose, will almost certainly still be the top seed and earn that first round bye. Dallas, win or lose, will almost certainly still be the top wild card seed, and will play the Bucs in the first round. That's too bad because an Eagles loss this past Sunday, coupled with a Cowboys win, would have made the game VERY meaningful. It's very possible both teams will play conservatively and do what they can to avoid injuries. Tread carefully. |
EastsideBangers | 21 |
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Analytics say there is a 57% chance the Lions do NOT make the postseason. Note the the longest postseason win drought is held by the Detroit Lions. As of today, 12/20/2022, it's been 11,307 days since they last won a postseason game. (They defeated the Cowboys in Detroit on 1/5/1992. I watched that game at a buddy's house, in his den. Afterwards we all played darts... and I got my ass kicked. I'm not a good darts player.) The Lions have won just one postseason game since 12/29/1957. Amazing. |
lookingtowin | 36 |
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