Recent Posts

Thread Author DegenGamble Post Entries
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
So that's all folks - I hope this thread inspires some creative handicapping methods using fantasy football predictive scores to help handicap NFL games.

It's far from perfect - I would love to see some folks track the predictive scores / stats and come up with a better way to translate how many fantasy points equates to real live points.
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Season results:  overall 152-100-3 60.3% win rate for the season
 
Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
Week 12: 13-3 81%
Week 13: 8-8 50%
Week 14 6-10 37%
Week 15 9-6-1 60%
Week 16 9-7 56%
Week 17 10-6 62.5%
DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Week 17 results

10-6  62.5%

DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Week 17 Picks per the method

JAX +3
ATL -3.5
BAL -9
WAS -3
DET -6.5
MIN -12
CLE +6.5
NOR -6
DAL -2.5
IND -4.5
NE -15
BUF -2.5
SF -3
SEA -8.5
LAC -7.5
DEN -3.5

DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Season results:
 
Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
Week 12: 13-3 81%
Week 13: 8-8 50%
Week 14 6-10 37%
Week 15 9-5-1 60%
Week 16 9-7 56%
DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Week 16 results

9-7 56%

Really pissed about OAK - should have been a 10-6 week.

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

I’m getting really sick of these blown covers in the last moments of a game - this OAK one hurt - I was hoping for a 10-6 week

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Week 16 Picks per the method

DEN +3.5

NOR -5.5

LAC -6.5

CHI -6.5

BUF +12.5

CAR -9.5

DET -3.5

TEN +6.5

KC -10.5

SF +4.5

NYG +4.5

SEA +5

PIT -9.5

OAK +8.5

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Saturday picks per the method

BAL -12.5

MIN -8

also if your interested - I have been experimenting using the projections for leans on O/U - it’s projecting MIN/GB over 40.5

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Quote Originally Posted by peetee9:

Hello Degen, I'm all new to NBA-betting. Can I PM you about the excel-file NBA CHASE SYSTEMS V4 please. I'm a 61 years old from Belgium. Sorry to post it here.

sorry Peetee - I really don’t have the time to update any spreadsheets - in fact I don’t really have time to post on the forum but I felt this method was very revealing and was hoping folks would take it, and develop it over time

DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Season results:
 
Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
Week 12: 13-3 81%
Week 13: 8-8 50%
Week 14 6-10 37%
Week 15 9-5-1 60%
DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Was hoping for a little better week 15 - 9-5-1 (60%)

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

NOR -15.5

JAX -10.5

PHI -7.5

MIA +3.5

BAL -6.5

MIN -11.5

ARI +4.5

CAR -2.5

LAR +1.5

PIT +3

TEN +2.5

DAL -2.5

ATL -6.5

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Saturday picks per the method

DET -4.5

SDG -1

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Thursday Night Pick per the method

DEN -2.5

DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Super tough last 2 weeks - week 13 went 8-8 and week 14 went and awful 6-10.  Lowest i've seen the method lean in 3 years. 

I take comfort in the fact that in week 13 - should have went 9-7 if Tennesee doesn't run for the garbage touchdown with a minute left.  Every other team in that stituation just goes down and kneels the ball.  2nd time this season Tenessee does that junk!

And week 14 should have wet 8-8 - with 2 overtime games (GB/CLE & BUF/IND) GB and BUF just need to kick the field goal instead of scoring in OT - but that's how it rolls sometimes.

Season results:
 
Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
Week 12: 13-3 81%
Week 13: 8-8 50%
Week 14 6-10 37%
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
MIN -2.5
CIN -6.5
CLE +3.5
SF +1.5
DAL -3.5
DET -1.5
OAK +4
IND +3.5
DEN +1
ARI +3
WAS +6.5
SEA +3
PHI +1
PIT -3.5
NE -11.5
DegenGamble
DegenGamble

Thursday Night Game per the method

NOR +2.5

the line for this game has been all over the place

DegenGamble
DegenGamble
Season results:

Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
Week 12: 13-3 81%
DegenGamble
DegenGamble
NOR -4
ATL -3
NYJ +3.5
BAL -2.5
HOU +7.5
GB -2
JAX  -9
SF +3.5
BUF +9
DEN -1.5
LAC -13.5
OAK -8
ARI +7
SEA +5.5 
PIT -4.5
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View