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replied to
Anyone still awake? Im capping the game and need some fresh point of views
in NBA Betting
(OH BTW I have not bet on an NBA game all season. I really don't bet the NBA. I was just curious on how the money was moving for game 6 so I checked in on covers and happened to read your post). GOOD LUCK BRO!
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CloserX | 23 |
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replied to
Anyone still awake? Im capping the game and need some fresh point of views
in NBA Betting
I am a Fade the Public guy. Anything over 70% in a primetime game, I always go against the public, just because whenever I don't I get burned. EVERY time. Now, IF you are not one to make bets based on what everyone else is betting than you should consider a few things (among others).
Most professional teams cannot contain a high level of play for more than 2 games. There is usually a drop off at the third game, it is just human nature to become complacent. The books know this, but the general public doesn't pay that close of attention to trends. The spreads of the first two games in Miami were around 4 pts, and now it is bumped to 5.5 pts because what? Because Dallas is hot? No, because it is more likely that Miami plays well in this game and if they win, it will likely be more than by 2 or 3 pts. The line opened high because the books know that the Sharps are looking to lay big on Miami, but of course the public is seeing Dallas' last two wins, and Lebron's ineffectiveness as an automatic play for Dallas, thus driving down the points. The sharps will have to wait til the last moments to catch the best line so they can ride the Heat into game 7. I myself am hoping for a Dallas victory as I can't stand the Heatles, but am not very optimistic based on where the money is being pounded. Dallas is a better team, clearly on a mission, and it would not shock me that they win game 6, but I'd be surprised knowing the money was all on them Of course, the books have been known to give a gift line or two, especially at the end of a season. There's going to be a lot of money backing up Miami, although the percentages might not show it. Another thing to consider is the resiliency of the Mavericks. It is highly likely that they will win one of the next two games based on how they have performed in these playoffs. They have a superstar that knows how to get to the freethrow line, and make the shots in crunch time. They have a nearly unstoppable pick n roll that they can use to get back into games that they fall behind. And they have shooting ability from almost all positions, making it highly likely that they will explode from the perimeter. So even if they don't win game 6, they will most likely win the next one, being that they are a superior overall team to the Miami Heat. As they say, the best team always wins in a 7 game series. Miami clearly has a lack of jump shooting ability, and are also deficient in the big-man department making them the weaker of the two teams. So if you take Dallas and lose in game 6, rest assured there will be rumors of Dallas choking again, and everybody and their mama will be on Miami for game 7. And when everyone is on a team, I'm sure by then you will have learned what to do. Fade the Public.
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CloserX | 23 |
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Dear Mr. Bator Love, CaliCash, LOL, jk with the love stuff, but I really do love that you posted the trend here Bator, thanks again bro.
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MrBator | 683 |
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My mistake, that Carolina game doesn't fit the bill, but it was a blowout nonetheless. Pittsburg is inconsistent anyways so I think an extra unit or two is warranted on my part...
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MrBator | 683 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RJ89: 12/23 Pit 27 Car 3 1/2 Pit 41 Cle 9 Doesn't fit the system technically, but is very close... I believe it does fit. Nice catch. Let's go make that money!
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MrBator | 683 |
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Bumping this as a public service announcement. Read the 1st post and apply it to the NE/NYJ game as you please.
1/2/11 NE 38 Mia 7 12/26/10 NE 34 Buf 3
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MrBator | 683 |
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replied to
125-80-5..............16-3-1 last 20 College Football.....Auburn & Oregon writeup and play
in College Football
Good Luck Gil!
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Gilberto | 89 |
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I'm riding all on Over....good luck to us Dropped a little on Seattle for no reason except that they get points....
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Famousfrank | 13 |
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Good luck bro. I liked Detroit and pulled the trigger when I saw your post this morning.
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Gilberto | 15 |
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Thank you sir.
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kalind | 116 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Gator11: After going 0 and 4 last night...this feels damn good! Good sh#% dude. I was 0-6 (worst streak I've had in over a year) heading into the FSU game and finally got a hit. Hopefully that plugs the hole in my wallet and I can start filling it up again.
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Gator11 | 11 |
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I'm on +3 FSU. Let's get that !
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rush | 40 |
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I'm 0-6 in last two days, and I took FSU tonight. Your pick should be good G. In 2011 I will return to my right mind and start tailing you again.
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Gilberto | 23 |
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Thanks Pho Quote Originally Posted by Pho_Q_Pay_Me: oh yea, its never a great idea to follow anyone blindly Yeah, you never want to do that. For games where I'm not familiar with the teams, I'll look at picks from cappers that I trust, and then take a look at the numbers myself. If it looks probable that the pick is good, I will follow. I call that blind-tailing, as I would think it would be foolish just to tail someone without at least looking at the numbers yourself. But with NBA, at first, for me, it will be a lot of blind-tailing before I can really get a good read on the games myself. Thanks again for the recommendations.
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CaliCash | 30 |
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Hey what's up fellas. I haven't bet an NBA game in two years, and was never really into it anyways. Thinking about getting into it as the Miami Heat Watch has kinda got me into watching the NBA again. I haven't seen enough games, nor watch the NBA enough to trust my capping skills, so I thought I would ask you my fellow Coverers to list a few of the best cappers to blind-tail for NBA Action. I've been doing this for some of my NFL and CFB plays and combining them with my own plays has worked out pretty well for me in those sports. Hopefully in a few months I'll be able to get a feel for it to just make my own plays. Thanks in advance for your help.
*And oh this is an adult's only thread, so if you are a clown don't come in here with your jibberish. Thanks!
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CaliCash | 30 |
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replied to
A rundown of my misfortune the past two nights if anyone wants to feel better about their situations
in College Football
Strangely I do feel better. Thanks Luckbird. Good luck to u in the future bro.
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luckbird | 25 |
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He is a jerk off. I have watched AZ games for years and this guy is a clown. He spends the entire game yelling at the refs and making pouting faces. When you see AZ players hang their heads after one bad play its because they are a reflection of their coach. He does the same shit all the time in every game. I decided to fade the public by betting AZ, that didn't turn out so well. Lucky I hit the under to soften the blow, but still feel stupid for riding the Wildcats even though I should've known what would happen to them. Guess it's the Tucsonan in me...
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FULLTIMEGRIND | 15 |
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I should've stayed on the train...good pick dude. I'll look for ya tomorrow.
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TRAIN69 | 28 |
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MilkMan! What happened?! Arggh. That's what I get for trying to take the easy way out. Good luck brah. I'm sure the streak you went on was mostly skill and part luck. Get em next time dude.
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CrazyMilkMan | 44 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MNFTheory: Can anyone tell me if Steve Hutchinson plays? AP is not good if their Offensive Line is no good!!!!!!!!!!!! I believe Hutchinson is out. GL everyone!
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CrazyMilkMan | 44 |
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