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Thread Author BuckeyeKaptn Post Entries
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
I'll post what has been the plays since May 21st. Covers lines will be there determine factor was to which teams are part of the parlay. 
I'll will be using covers parlay calculator to determine the take home winnings. I'll be using scores and odds for the run line odds. 
If there are any rain outs, I will determine if the rained out team had high enough odds to be part of the parlay. If it is and the other team won, I will treat that play as a single game win as that is what would happen in real life. 
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
New parlay Chase based on these rankings. 

I'm going back to May 21st and looking at possible parlays. Using the teams on the A game of a series, having at least 6 games being played, parlaying the top money line odds (top favorites), and seeing how that fares. 
The Chase would be if a parlay lost you would wait until the next set of A games for the next play...not playing the same 2 teams again the next day. 
So far every parlay has hit for 4 straight parlays...including run lines. Unfortunately I'm at work so I'll get the rest updated hopefully tonight. 
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn

NYY  *2

BOS  *1

BAL  *1

WSH  *3

 

 

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
NYY isn't a chase.  It's a rain out make up game.  Just noticed.  At least they're winning in bottom of the 8th.  I played them.
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn

PHI  *2

MIL  *1

LAD  *3

CHC  *2

NYM  *1

COL  *1

SF  *1

CLE  *4

HOU  *4

TEX  *4

KC  *1

NYY  *6

 

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn

Quote Originally Posted by GroverAlex:

Also cws lost yesterday

Yes, they lost the B game.  Today is the C game of the chase.

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

  All but SD, Sea, TB, CWS won on the A game. Yesterday was B game CWS, SD, and Sea and C game TB.  Today is C game CWS, SD and Sea winning B game and TB losing C game.

Quote Originally Posted by GroverAlex:

I’m sorry. I’m not great with all the metrics. But I do follow games that you listed with a 4 or above and it’s been great. Is there a list today with those numbers? Sorry for being such a noob. Lol

Today is all C or D games.  Tomorrow and Tuesday will have the A games and I will post.  The A game of a chase is the first game of a 3 or 4 game series between 2 teams.  Example: Min at Cle on Friday was the A game for a chase playing Cle.  They lost -205 (Covers line).  Now you would play the B game on Saturday on Cle.  They lost again, so the C game was today, and they won....winning the chase.  I didn't post Cle on Sat or today because it was a B and C game.  A games usually start on Monday or Tuesday and Thursday or Friday.  Those will be the days I will post.

The other thread has an excel file you can update to give you the teams to play for ALL games each day based on the RSRA formula.  The RSRA plays on this thread is based on teams having a ONE run or better RSRA than it's opponent.

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn

Read post 61 for how I put the plays out. 

Read post 56 for how I compute the winnings. I just might wager myself 4 times the unit amount if a team is a play on 4 rankings. Would've killed it this past series set.

Also notice on other thread that the RSRA played daily had been hitting this month. Keep watch on it . It did well in hockey. 

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn

Quote Originally Posted by GroverAlex:

Is there a list for today of category numbers for the games

 

I only post the "A" games at the start of a 3 or 4 game series between 2 teams.  You would chase for a win for 3 games.  All but SD, Sea, TB, CWS won on the A game. Yesterday was B game CWS, SD, and Sea and C game TB.  Today is C game CWS, SD and Sea winning B game and TB losing C game.

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
Above post doesn't include the open B (CWS) and C (TB) plays.

JUNE:
 
System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
L5 Rk Play 34 - 25 $(0.91) 25 - 34 $0.46 
L5 Rk Fade 39 - 20 $12.63 29 - 30 $5.58 
RSRA5 Play 37 - 22 $5.83 27 - 32 $0.64 
RSRA5 Fade 40 - 19 $15.54 30 - 29 $8.38 
L20 Rk Play 35 - 24 $0.71 24 - 35 $(2.64) 
L20 Rk Fade  36 - 23 $6.53 32 - 27 $15.14 
Pwr Rk Play 42 - 18 $14.42 34 - 26 $12.99 
Pwr Rk Fade 38 - 26 $(0.47) 30 - 34 $0.99 
Progs/Regres  20 - 18 $(8.26) 15 - 23 $(5.67)
Dogs 4 - 11 $(6.39) 2 - 13 $(9.35)
Rev Line 21 - 31 $(5.80) 18 - 34 $1.66 
RSRA 80 - 38 $21.91 65 - 53 $27.11
 
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
L5 Rk Play 58 - 45 ($2.14) 42 - 61 ($4.71)
L5 Rk Fade 62 - 40 $9.11 44 - 58 ($3.16)
RSRA5 Play 60 - 42 $2.62 47 - 55 $1.91 
RSRA5 Fade 63 - 39 $12.66 45 - 57 ($0.35)
L20 Rk Play 62 - 41 $7.76 41 - 62 ($5.19)
L20 Rk Fade 58 - 44 $2.56 45 - 57 $4.17 
Pwr Rk Play 67 - 36 $15.12 57 - 46 $20.74 
Pwr Rk Fade 64 - 47 ($3.07) 49 - 62 ($3.24)
Progs/Regres 39 - 30 ($3.76) 32 - 37 $6.53 
Dogs 13 - 25 ($9.70) 8 - 30 ($15.06)
Rev Line 35 - 47 ($9.63) 27 - 55 ($1.49)
RSRA 122 - 75 $12.58 99 - 98 $21.29 

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
RSRA 195 - 147 $3.37 145 - 197 ($6.15)

--------------------------June---------------------------------
120 - 75 $18.89 92 - 103 $20.19 

As a 3g chase:
A: 70 - 33 $28.53 B: 23 - 9 $32.99 C: 4 - 5 $0.63 

--------------------------June---------------------------------
A: 39 - 16 $16.61 B: 10 - 5 $11.03 C: 3 - 2 $11.13 

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn

PIT  *0

MIL  *0

CHC  *1

LAD  *3

CLE  *0

DET  *1

CHW  *0

HOU  *8

LAA  *0

MIA  *4

BAL  *1

WSH  *0

COL  *3

 

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
SD  *1
ATL  *0
ARI  *6
TB  *1
NYY  *2
BOS  *4
SEA  *2

cougarpines
cougarpines

On my spreadsheet, I have Road/Home Ave runs scored and Ave runs against.  I have Road/Home Last 5g Runs scored/against.  I have -1.5 winning percentage for Road/Home Fav/Dog (dog getting the ARL -1.5).  I have Road/Home Fav/Dog RL win percentage (dog is +1.5...how well does the dog cover +1.5).  Lastly, I have last 5 games played with count of won -1.5 versus won overall. 

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
PHI  *3
DET  *0
HOU  *4

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
SF  *4
MIA  *0
CHC  *4
MIL  *1
STL  *1
ARI  *6
BOS  *5
TOR  *5
TB  *0
CLE  *2
LAA  *3
SEA  *1

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
Taking out the 2 game sets and A Game rainouts really jumped up the take home pay!!
For May:
"A" "A" "B" "B" "C" "C" Total
L5 Rk Play 10 - 8 $0.24 4 - 4 $1.11 4 - 0 $22.62 $23.97 
L5 Rk Fade 6 - 9 $(4.05) 8 - 1 $17.17 1 - 0 $6.96 $20.08 
RSRA5 Play 10 - 4 $6.00 2 - 2 $(0.04) 2 - 0 $10.28 $16.24 
RSRA5 Fade 6 - 9 $(4.05) 8 - 1 $17.17 1 - 0 $6.96 $20.08 
L20 Rk Play 12 - 4 $7.97 2 - 2 $0.08 2 - 0 $12.16 $20.21 
L20 Rk Fade 6 - 9 $(4.10) 8 - 1 $15.86 1 - 0 $6.96 $18.72 
Pwr Rk Play 13 - 5 $7.70 3 - 2 $2.32 2 - 0 $12.22 $22.24 
Pwr Rk Fade 8 - 4 $3.22 4 - 0 $9.33 0 - 0 $-    $12.55 
RSRA 31 - 17 $11.92 13 - 4 $21.95 1 - 3 $(10.49) $23.38 
Total 102 - 69 $24.85 52 - 17 $84.93 14 - 3 $67.67 $177.45 

I have also fixed my spreadsheet to remove future 2 game series.
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
Just noticed MLB has tossed a few 2 game series in here and there.  I will be taking them out of the records I have...wins and losses cause there's no C game and my spreadsheet currently would make the A game of the next series the C game if it was needed.  
I will let the thread know when I have my spreadsheet fixed to avoid the 2 game sets.
In the mean time, watch ahead for the 2 game series.  Rain outs will kill a series if on the A game but won't if the A was already played.
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn

CHC  *5
PHI  *0
WSH  *0
STL  *2
SD  *2
ARI  *0
ATL  *0
LAD  *1
BOS  *5
DET  *0
LAA  *2
NYY  *4

BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
BAL  *3
TOR  *1
SEA  *3
HOU  *1
OAK  *4

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