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I've been having some good success the last few weeks betting Thu night home dogs to +7 (Miami and Minny).
I'm going to take Titans +9 and tease the o/u down to 36.5 for the game to go over. I see this as a Colts 24-20 type game. Tighter game with two divisional foes.
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CrazyMilkMan | 39 |
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I think this is a classic degenerate game. Not a lot of value here, two garbage teams and a game that could go either way.
This is a game for people who just want some action or are chasing Sun losses.
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WhiteMice | 48 |
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I teased this one down to Saints -1 and the o/u down to 47 (for the game to go over).
Hopefully I get the same easy results from my Thu teaser of Minn +8.5 and 43 o/u. |
cowboys4949 | 57 |
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I teased this one to Minny +8.5 and the O/U down to 42.5 (to go over).
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LeagueCapper | 43 |
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I'm on the Wyoming train again this week. Put up 580+ yards against 3 FBS defenses. Smith might be a NFL QB. Texas St has been giving up massive yards on defense (porous secondary) and as others have noted not a very dynamic offense.
Wyoming has been a good cover team on the road as well. I'm laying a good size bet on the Cowboys. BrewCrew
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MEGALOCKS | 135 |
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Quote Originally Posted by forty9ersfan80: call me whatever you want sf will win on saturday night. im not saying it will be a blowout will def be a close game just think home field and stout defense are the difference. And what i meant about the numbers being close i was referring to that link obv with kapernicks small sample size it only compares the 2 qbs stats from week 11 to wk 17 Homefield means nothing here. GB has won on the road in the playoffs in much tougher (louder) environments. They won't be intimidated. Niners win if their defense plays to their standards.
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LeagueCapper | 216 |
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Quote Originally Posted by forkball: EXACTLY. RODGERS IS THE ONLY SIDE OF THIS MATCHUP THAT FAVORS GREENBAY. THIS GAME WILL BE WON IN THE TRENCHES BY THE NINERS. RODGERS WILL BE ON HIS behind ALL GAME LONG. THE NINER RUNNING GAME WILL DOMINATE AS WELL. LINE SHOULD BE AROUND 6. THIS ONE IS A GIFT KNOWING THE PUBLIC WATCHED GREENBAY BEAT A QUARTERBACKLESS VIKING TEAM WHILE RACKING UP AN AMAZING 24 POINTS. . .PLEASE. Umm...the Niners have better WR's? GB can cover well too. If the Niners can't run the ball they will struggle. There were only two 100 yard rushers against GB this year (Gore and Peterson) so they are not as pathetic against the run as some would think). GB's defense had more sacks this year and the Niners forced two turnovers more than GB. Bottom line, this is a tight game and not a slam dunk call. I'm avoiding it. PS: Enough with the caps already.
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LeagueCapper | 216 |
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Caveat: I'm a diehard Packers fan.
However, I'm generally not biased and only bet GB 3-4 times a year when I have a good hunch they will cover This year I went 4-1 ATS in games I took GB (Win: Chi - 1st game, Hou, Tenn, and Minn playoff, LOSS, Minn reg season finale). I see it as a toss up and will be a 3 point game. I just don't know who will win it. My quick breakdown. GB clear positional advantages: QB, WR SF clear positional advantages: OL, DL, LB, RB Secondary: Even (SF better tackling, GB better at covering) Special Teams: Slight edge to SF based off superb coverage units. Obviously both are weak this year at kicker. DVOA: Overall: SF: 4, GB: 5 Off rank: SF: 5, GB: 3 Def rank: SF: 2 GB: 8 ST rank: SF: 20, GB: 18 Bottom line, this has all the makings of a classic game. Anyone who is confident on either side is full of it. GB has their biggest advantage at the most important position on the field, which is QB (plus he has a chip on his shoulder). However, the crappy field conditions favor defense, which gives SF the advantage there. In games that I feel are close, you take the points, BUT I don't think this is a good game to bet on the spread. I'm avoiding it. Gun to my head, GB only because I see it as a tight game. If it was in GB and they were favored by 3, I would say SF. Clearly I don't think homefield matters much in this matchup (GB won't be intimidated).
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LeagueCapper | 216 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Werker: BrewCrew: First off, I'll just say that I think the age of betting against rookie QBs because they're rookies is over. That's not to say the game won't go under, just that I don't think that's a valid reason. I do agree that we're probably going to see a lot of running in this game, but both these teams take shots downfield. One reason I like the Seahawks in the game is that their CBs are insanely good. Sherman and Browner should put the clamps down, but the Seahawks should be successful in that regard. If you like the under, I'd prefer to take the Redskins team total u23. MW: They always factor in a probability for a scores off turnovers. I'm not going to pretend to figure out how many of the points in the total are from that. Very true on the rookie comment although I think the playoffs are a different beast. Both teams strength is running the football (Wash was #1 and Seattle #3), but they both stop the run effectively (Wash #5 rush Def, Seattle #10). Washington's weakness is pass Def, but Seattle ranked 27th in passing offense. Now, numbers can be spinned anyway to make a bet seem stronger and I get that. However, I think that in this case the strengths of each team seems to align that an under makes sense (both prefer to run, but have good run defenses, Wash has a bad pass def, but Seattle doesn't have a dynamic passing attack). My comfort here is that RG3 is banged up so that will make their offense much less explosive. With really no strong passing presence, Seattle can load up the box with 8 and play man to man outside. I just can't see a high scoring game, especially with Washington. Thus it is my best bet. Good luck this weekend! Cheers
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Werker | 33 |
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Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf: I agree. However, both teams are in the top 5 in takeaways and a combined +30 in takeaways/giveaways, by far the highest combined total of the 4 games. The Seahawks do force a lot of fumbles and Morris can be a little careless at time. There might be some short fields if turnovers occur. Playoff pressure might lead to some unexpected gaffes. Will these cautious and careful QB's turn it over, though? Seems unlikely, though the oddsmakers are apparently incorporating a strong possibility of TO's into the total...interesting. No question. If you look at it from a points per game. Wash gives up 24.2 points while Seattle gives up 15.3. That's 39 points right there. The flip side of your comment is they are both high on the plus side for turnover differential because they don't turn it over themselves as much. However, definitely noted as Morris does put it on the ground. I think some of the inflation comes with Seattle barrage of points against SF, etc, but I do believe this will be a grind it out game. The other O/U I like is the over on Colts/Ravens. Two bad defenses there who should end up in the low 50's in total points. I can see a 31-20 type game or 27-23.
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Werker | 33 |
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To me, the best bet of the weekend is the under on Seahawks/Redskins. I really can't believe it opened at 46. Both have good defenses and rookie QB's.
RGIII is banged up so that limits his speed. The Redskins are limited in the passing game and the Seahawks have one of the best pass defenses in the league. Both teams will pound the ball with their RB's so there won't be a lot of short quick TD drives. Unless there is some bad turnovers or special teams touchdowns, I would expect this game to fall in the 20-17 range.
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Werker | 33 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Zoopdog7:
How bout that congratulations Ha! My bad. Congrats!
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bearinvegas | 63 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Zoopdog7: Zoopdog, fair enough. However, I think you are over emphasizing the Giants momentum too. It was only back in Week 15 they laid an egg to a bad Redskins game (although divisional games don't always go by the script). I don't think you can really call the Giants secondary healthy either (with Ross even being banged up with a concussion and missing how many guys on IR this year). Look, as I noted in my score the Giants will no doubt get their points. However, I don't think they will get a consistent pash rush, which to me they will need to in order to win. My belief is people are weighing the Giants momentum and the 08' game too much. I guess we can come back and chat about it on Monday. If you are right, I'll congratulate you. Cheers. |
bearinvegas | 63 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Welcome aboard, BC 82! What do you see the big difference between that NFC Championship game and this Saturday's matchup? Eli Manning is pretty capable of going to Lambeau and beat Packs again, he proved it 4 years ago by beating Favre. Thanks! And good luck to Packers as well as Brewers this season, will you guys keep Prince Fielder? Big difference is Brett Favre @ 36 and Aaron Rodgers at his peek @ 28. GB is much more explosive on offense now (but so are the Giants). I think 08' is irrelevant other than the Giants won't be intimidated to come into Lambeau. Again, I just think the Giants have been inconsistent all year (9-8 record) and too much is being weighed on that 08' game. Unfortunately Prince is gone, but not much you can do. That's baseball. Big markets can pay. Small markets can't. With the signing of Ramirez, Prince is gone. With Braun out for 50, it is going to be back to old Brewers baseball (sub 500) this coming season (unless the pitching plays out of its mind again.
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bearinvegas | 63 |
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First off, I'm a Packer fan so let's just throw that out there. Secondly, I'm not a homer even though I've never bet against GB, but I always tell my gambling friends when to bet against GB (KC and NYG were prime examples). I'm not blind to bad lines when GB is favored by too much.
In this case, I think it is slightly too low and by the end of the week you will see it down to 7.5 (I doubt Vegas will give up the hook, but we will see). Why I like GB: 1. Healthiest GB has been all year. 21 of their preferred 22 starters will be on the field (Nick Collins being the lone injury - which is a big loss). 2. GB's O-line will be at full strength with Clifton back (although he is still a bit rusty). On a slower track at Lambeau, I think GB will be able to slow down the pass rush enough to expose the Giants weak secondary (Giants will get a few sacks, but the pressure won't be relentless). To me, this is the Giants only shot at slowing (and beating) GB. With no crowd noise on offense, GB will have no issues making audibles at the line and getting off the ball better. See first game. NYG had a decent rush, but not overwhelming. GB puts up 38. Osi is back, but so is Sitton (GB's best O-lineman) and Clifton. Neither played in the first game. 3. GB's secondary - Yes it gives up yards, but it also led the league in INT's by a wide margin. Giants will make some plays, but I think this secondary will too. G 4. Motivation - Everyone is picking the Giants because of their "momentum". Well, the disrespect card has been a year long thing. Despite being 15-1, the media has been picking at GB's faults a lot and many are picking GB to lose now (Rodgers even admitted he uses the media for motivation) . Throw in the 100% guarantee by JPP and a couple of recent events too (passing of LG TJ Lang's father and Joe Philbin's son - which admittedly may not mean much but then again this is a very tight nit team). 5. GB is 19-1 at home in their last 20. The lone loss was against Miami in OT last year when GB had 6 starters out (including Matthews and Finley). The odds of the Giants winning straight up are probably slim. Throw in that GB is 7-1 against the spread at home this year (which is the more important stat) and to me the bet favors GB. I told my friends before the wild card round that I hoped the Giants would crush Atlanta because the public (and Vegas would overreact). The line probably would have been double digits just a few weeks ago, but the Giants have beat up a few inconsistent teams so it is dropping close to the line back when they first played (which was a game to me that was a clear bet on the Giants). In the NFC championship 4 years ago, I told as many people as I could in GB that the line was way over inflated at 7 points and of course we know what happened. There is no 36 year old QB this time, but a Green Bay QB at 28 playing at the peak of his game. Big difference. One stat to think about favoring the Giants (they are 5-2 ATS as a dog). They are also confident and have a QB playing his best football. I just see GB coming out on fire in this game. A strong hunch on my part, but all is quiet in GB. There is no talk coming from them. I like that. They will be ready. I'm going to let this line drop to 7.5 and then lay a nice bet on GB. 38-27 GB
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bearinvegas | 63 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Makaveli1: KC is a bad team but Arrowhead is a VERY daunting place to be a visitor no matter who you are. I haven't bet against the Chiefs at home in years. I will take the 14 pts in a heartbeat. Not on my book yet. Used to be a daunting place. The last two years, they have only been around .500 at home. The place hasn't even had all of the seats filled for most of their games. Plus, I wouldn't doubt if half the stadium will be Packer fans (only Steeler fans travel as much, if not more than GB fans). Having said that, as a Packer fan I'm staying away and I have a very good feel for GB. Plus, Jennings is out so not sure how that will effect the offense since he hasn't missed a game since 2007. I would stay away.
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VGPOP | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Werker: You seriously like the dogs, huh? I see nope hope for the Rams right now. They just lost their best CB for the year in a bye week practice. They already were kind of awful in their secondary, and now they've gone from awful to unacceptable. I literally don't see them being able to stop Rodgers from scoring a TD on every single drive barring dropped balls (looking at you Jermichael). I'd say maybe they have a hope of a backdoor cover after they sit Rodgers with a 30 point lead, but I Flynn is good enough to take them down himself. The more I look at this game, the more I like the Pack. They'll be in every teaser I even consider this week. Yeah, I'm just making Packers -14.5 official now. Jags have hope of keeping it close just on the defensive end, but honestly, this could just as easily get out of hand. As I said above, I'm just passing on this one. Miami is definitely a live dog this week just because they're in division with the Jets and play them very hard. That being said, I just don't think I'm putting my money on this team, even if I do think the Jets suck. I like the Pack too. I don't care what the trend is with a DD dog coming off the bye being 21-2 against the spread. I believe that is what I saw on another thread anyway. The Rams top 3 corners are out for this game (37 yr old Al Harris is making the start for the Rams - just signed a few weeks ago). Amendola (their #1 WR - although he is not a true #1) is out for the year and the rest of their WR's are pedestrian. They have zero line protection (ie lots of sacks) and GB has been very solid against the run this year (-2 yard performance by Forte anyone?). GB is at home too and unless they have stupid turnovers, there is no way they don't score 30+ easily in this game. Rams only have Stephen Jackson, which GB should be able to limit. Bulaga will return to RT this week so Newhouse will man the LT side where he had a solid game in Atlanta. I see this as a 38-10 GB win (late TD by Rams).
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Werker | 61 |
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One thing I will point out is the Rams have their top 3 CB's out for the year. They also are without their #1 Amendola for the year (even though he wasn't even a true #1 WR).
The Rams have Stephen Jackson and that is it while GB has been solid against the run. I don't see how the Rams can stop GB's offense with probably the worst secondary in the league (Al Harris at 37 is starting and he was just picked up 3 weeks ago). Dangerous game. I think GB will still cover despite the high spread. Really no way they don't score 30+ and the Rams are the lowest scoring team in the league. We are talking about the best (or second best) team in the league against probably the worst. Plus GB is at home. Despite what the trend says, I wouldn't touch this game.
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BigNiner | 270 |
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