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AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
Quote Originally Posted by TERP_:

no reason to lay -300 on anyone. the dog is going to win that game 25% of the time. I just see no value in that personally especially in a division game. but on the flip side the baseball season is too long and has too much variance (stupid manager decisions, umpire inconsistency, bullpens blowing up) to be taking huge underdogs unless you are a high volume bettor. sure you can profit hitting 48% but that's not going to get you anywhere unless you are betting 5-7 games a day. If you are a more selective bettor like me for example I would suggest keying in on 2-4 games per day and betting a maximum of 3. Do not be afraid to lay the juice on the +1.5. I actually think baseball has some great value with the +1.5. I do not have data to support this but It certainly "feels" like baseball has alot more 1 run games compared to Hockey but for some reason the puckline in hockey for the underdog is always in the -200 and above range but gets blown up by the empty net time and time again. 

I get what your saying but to wager on this sport from a variable point of view compared to other sports is pointless....

In a sport that is based off of one on one matchups between the pitcher and the batter there's so much variables and probabilities involved its impossible to predict even with stats.  From the pitch to the swing of the bat and the trajectory of the ball after contact there's so much involved anything can happen.  How many pitches are there in an average ball game?  Think of all that has to happen in one single pitch over and over for 9 innings. 

From the Book Psychology of Baseball.....

In his book, Stadler mentions an interview with pitcher Greg Maddux after a streak of no-hit innings, where Maddux said he just got lucky because some guys hit balls really hard, but hit them right at a fielder.

"I think the players can kind of see that distinction in ways that, you know, because they've been around the game so much, that fans … might not be able to see that as the players are," Stadler said. 

Theres just way to much probabilities and luck in baseball not sure how people can wager on this sport.  But, if you enjoy it by all means continue to question why this happened? How can that happen?  How did this pitcher give up 5 runs in one inning? How did a team not score 9 innings of baseball? Think about how much is involved math and physics in ONE singe pitch and you're trying to predict an outcome of 9 innings of this sport? Best of luck 


AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd

Quote Originally Posted by LogCottage:

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

darn MLB I'm done trying to figure this garbage out
Get away from this sport. The fan base is finally getting wise and the gamblers are too....

 

peace_5 I agree Paxton getting paid 2.3 million for a year and pitched 2.5 innings.....that's like what 100,000 dollars for an hour of pitching fucked up world we live in!

dallasm
dallasm
Clown didn't even last 3 innings...Lets see he pitched for 1 hour and got paid 30k for the hour? Not bad for an hours work 
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
darn MLB I'm done trying to figure this garbage out  
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
MLB Bankroll -$800

Gonna try first 5 to get myself out of the hole backing pitchers that don't give a fuck.....

Noticed the games I lost on previous threads the first 5 in MLB are the way to go...People pay decent money to see these big time pitchers show up for 5 innings and they end up shitting the bed....

That pitcher tonight will be Porcello 

Mariners first 5 -150 PK $300 to win $200
zebrakiller
zebrakiller
Just play the first five on all these games because most of these pitchers come in and don't give a darn like Porcello tonight watch......take Mariners first 5 
zebrakiller
zebrakiller
Corey Kluber
CLE
6/15 7:10 PM
Min
Twins Batters
AB 193
AVG.197
OBP.265
OPS 613

Kyle Gibson
MIN
6/15 7:10 PM
Cle
Indians Batters
AB177
AVG.362
OBP.442
OPS1.030

Look at this garbage! How can anyone cap this game and take Gibson based off stats alone? What possible angle could you have taken twins? You had a huge sample size of at bats 193 and 177 at bats! Gibson is giving up 1030 OPS that's double of Klubers and 442 on base percentage! Then Gibson goes in and pitches like a Cy young while Kluber gives up 5! The only angle which is the most annoying in baseball is when a team heads home for the first game off a road series and shits the bed because they are happy to be home.  One of the angles that makes baseball frustrating to cap. 
zebrakiller
zebrakiller

Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

another big chalk -210 losing 4-0 to the horrible twins pitcher Gibson ???How can this be happening again added to other big chalks this past week they are burying us i'm going back look over Klubers last starts see i spot something this is insane

peace_5 this is getting ridiculous at this point the best approach is to take first 5 against these big chalks and profit 

 

 

AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd

Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

why heres why again yesterday two huge favs destroyed your bank roll Yankees when i bet them early - 205 Cleve - -200 highest and The cardinals again -200 a single 1 unit wager on all 3 teams cost you $605 dollars all in one day

 

Could have done a  a 9 team ML parlay with all favorites today and  you would have won like 10 grand an_roll_laughCould have played all favorites for the day at $100 each and still win more than $605 of the games you lost yesterday but.....I don't play like that because that's playing reckless. 3 heavy favorites in one day? Play like that my MLB bankroll would be -$3000 by now an_roll_laugh 

 

MLB Bankroll -$307

 

Cleveland Indians -230 $500 to win $217

AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
MLB Bankroll $7

At least bankroll landed on a lucky number Greinke was what 20 something straight home wins? Also, the diamondbacks lineup starting to heat up bat wise and you end up with the worst possible series of events to the game....Greinke gives up 5 runs first five and diamondbacks had bases loaded twice and struck out the inning both times.  The probability of these events to happen are what? I havent touched the diamondbacks all year and out of the 20 something straight home games greinke won.....i managed to pick the ONE he decides to play softball.....MLB can be rough if you can recap these series of events and make you wonder how much of a mind darn capping can be when you thought you had all the angles covered.

Miami Marlins -110 $300 to win $272
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
MLB Bankroll $307

Passed on today because I had this game circled since Monday. Getting a solid Greinke at home for -145?  

Arizona Diamondbacks -145 $300 to win $206
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
Something looks odd about backing bartolo colon tomorrow....who's the Dodgers gonna call to pitch? 
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

Underdog, can you expand on clv?
Nice to see discussions here that aren’t kids talking shait and eschewing logic and things like roi.
I am finally at a place in my sports wagering walk where I’m way past needing action, impulse betting and trying to win a lot over the short term. I don’t watch 90% of the games I bet.
I used to try to take a professional approach, but always let greed or want for action spoil my roll.
Not now a been that way for the last 2 years. This is after 30 doing it the other way...

I was the same way playing reckless and majority of it was for entertainment.  Time I evolved to get my mind and body right.  Focus more on overall health and family.  Not isolating  myself  watching games everyday and neglecting family and health. Now i put my play in at a reasonable bankroll limit and if it hits it hits......Get off work go to the gym come home hang out with friends and family.... check the score if it won all good if it loses then on to the next day...….

Been doing this for 10 years and I finally realized its time to be smart about it.  See all these kids trying to impress with records and personas.  I was the same way when I won my first bet 10 years ago .  


Lyrics from Tupac Shakur...…

Hahahaha
You ain't knowing what we mean by staring through the rearview
So since you ain't knowing what we mean let me break down understanding
The world, the world is behind us
Once a guy get an understanding on the game
And what the levels and the rules of the game is
Then the world ain't no trick no more, the world is a game to be played
Just gotta put our mind to it and do it...…..

KeyElement
KeyElement
MLB Betting / Hall of SHAME / View Post
That code will not work it's B A B A select start 
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
MLB Bankroll $77

Certainly didn't expect to win every game....nature of baseball.  Onto the next game the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs -130 $300 to win $230
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
Sac  didn't know that was you posting the -300 sale wasn't referring to you personally just wanted to point out simply playing -300 favorites blindly without researching will definetly get you broke asf
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
Key   That's probability numbers I like to see....

to the guy mentioning Sale losing at -300 on Friday against the white sox...Simple research would have been a play to back Verlander instead that day going up against a trash rangers lineup. Verlanders career at bats was 269 and hitting at an avg of .190 against the Rangers lineup..... and you were getting a line of -190 for verlander! 
AFNfootballnerd
AFNfootballnerd
Heard a pro capper on YouTube suggest to take the run line on the Astros because your getting even money. Really? That's why the books offer run lines to lay the -1.5 at a sucker price and look what happened today....he said your getting great value at even money with the run line. 

MLB bankroll $277

I'm gonna take $200 of the Astros win and play the Nationals tomorrow....I'm sure there's pros out there that will tell you to take the Giants because there's value in a underdog rubber game in a three game series with a revenge angle situation  

Nationals -315 $200 to win $63

That should build the bankroll to $340 then take the Cubs on Monday who fly to Milwaukee where the Brewers will be coming off a road trip from philly and have to face the Cubs and Quintana....I'm sure the Brewers will be up for that game 
holdmybeers
holdmybeers
The script was for LeBron and the cavs to win in game 7 and the nba to get millions of a game 7 and LeBron to become a legend.....instead they went with the other script.....

The script was for LeBron to get swept in the finals and search for a new team.  The script can go either way no matter what happens.  
sportswagers
sportswagers
MLB Betting / Morton WTF / View Post
Thank you for pulling Morton! Best move I seen by a manager in awhile.....Morton was clearly throwing that game 
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