Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
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MagicMan64 | 23 |
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Nice run!
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kolespdp | 9 |
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I wouldn't know where to begin betting the NBA as I generally stick to NFL and College football along with some baseball. Seriously appreciate all the hard work and info you share here in this forum man!
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LeagueCapper | 58 |
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Now onto Mr Manning. Since 2012 Peyton has been a double digit road favorite (closing line) 6 times. 2012: Denver -10 @ KC O/U
41.5...Denver wins 17-9 Denver -10 @ Oakland O/U
47...Denver wins 26-13. 2013: Denver -10 @ Houston O/U
53...Denver wins 37-13 Denver -10 @ Oakland O/U
53.5...Denver wins 34-14 2014: Denver -10 @ NYJ O/U
47...Denver wins 31-17 Denver -11 @ Oakland O/U
50... Denver ? My point is DD Home dogs have been absolute Money except for when they are facing Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Since 2011 Manning is 4-1 as a DD road favorite. I also hate the fact the line opened up at 10.5 and was not bet up to 11 from 9 or so. I definitely want to pull the trigger on Oakland but Manning seems to be the ONLY one that somehow covers as a DD road favorite. Something I've noticed about Manning and this situation is that when he has been a Double Digit road favorite, the under has hit all but once and that was a few weeks ago against the Jets when the last min pick 6 killed the under. Anyway I do think the Raiders show up this Sunday and think the UNDER might also be a solid play. Thoughts on the Under LC? Also last week 3/4
double digit road dogs hit except the Jets who actually closed as 9 point
underdogs. Id be shocked if all three big underdogs cover again this week and
can see at least one of the 3 getting blown out! Looking at possibly playing
Ravens for a statement game. Anyway GL to you this week man...Always
enjoy reading your analysis on games and hopefully Peyton is 4-2 as a DD road
favorite after this weekend |
LeagueCapper | 78 |
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As you can see from the above examples, I have found that the
few times a DD home dog has existed since the 2011-2012 season, just about all
of them at least covered along with some winning outright. Now I realize
from a statistical point of view, the sample size is very small (Every DD
home dog where the line closed 10 or higher since the 2011-12' season posted
above not including DD Home Dogs v Manning) but my point though is that DD Home
underdogs on the contrary to most people's thinking, are actually very smart
plays. These are the plays where you wonder if you should save time and
light your money on fire instead of placing a wager on a garbage team that will
agonize you for days when they lose by 20+. In the long run though, you
will make money simply betting them blind as you can see from examples above. |
LeagueCapper | 78 |
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I have to admit that I
love nothing more than a double digit home underdog! Anyone remember the KC
Chiefs in 2011? 2011: Pitt -10.5 @ KC O/U
41.5...Pitt wins 13-9 Or anyone remember the
undefeated GB Packers going for a 16-0 season playing the Horrific KC Chiefs
where no one gave them a shot in hell at winning? GB -11.5 @ KC O/U
46...Chiefs win 19-14 (Chiefs Superbowl) Jaguars since 2011-12'
season 2011: Baltimore
-10 @ Jacksonville O/U 38.5...Jags win 12-7 2012: New England -14 @
Jacksonville O/U 51.5...NE wins 23-16 2013: Some of you
may see Jacksonville as a 16 point home underdog get destroyed by SF last yr
42-10 but remember that game was in London
St Louis since
2011-12' season 2011: NO -13.5 @
STL O/U 48.5...STL wins 31-21 2012: SF - 12.5 @
STL O/U 35...SF wins 34-27 2013: Seattle -13 @ STL
O/U 43.5...Seattle wins 14-9
Indianapolis since
2011-12' season 2011 Pitt -10.5 @ Indy
O/U 39.5...Pitt wins 23-20
Carolina since 2011-12' season 2011 GB -10.5 @ Carolina
O/U 45...GB 30-23
Minnesota since
2011-12' season 2011: GB -10 @
Minn O/U 47...GB wins 27-33
Buffalo in 2013
which was last year's home opener v the Pats 2013: New England
-10 @ Buffalo O/U 50.5...NE wins 23-21 |
LeagueCapper | 78 |
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Correction: There is no reverse line movement in this game. Public backing the road underdog hence the line drop from 12. Ill be on the opposite side! GL
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Capper007 | 13 |
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VCU -11.5. VCU is 0-5 ATS last 5 games. Always smart to bet a team when everyone is off their bandwagon. I won't touch Manhattan as a Heavy Public Underdog despite their recent success. Im thinking VCU rolls @ home tonight despite the reverse line movement although I could be wrong. But thats why its called gambling. GL tonight
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Capper007 | 13 |
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You are right, mixed up my games and thanks for pointing that out!
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abizzo24 | 11 |
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What about Cincy -4.5? Looks off to me. They played Louisville real close last Thurdday only to come up short in the 4th quarter. Now Cincy @ home is only laying 4.5 to Syracuse. I would like to think Cincy bounces back but after that tough loss, Syracuse off a bye and the line that low, kinda makes me like Syracuse more and more. Plus most the public backing Cincy and that low line! Thoughts?
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abizzo24 | 11 |
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Would you mind giving any insight to a couple team totals? I was looking to see your thoughts on UGA Team total 1st half and also La Tech 1st Half? These are not available yet to me but Id assume UGA would be around 20.5 and LA Tech around 26.5. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.
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Capper007 | 36 |
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Real nice day today...I like your thinking on San Fran this week as that line stood out immediately. Curious to see what your thoughts on New England are also. Another huge spread next week after jets won big today!
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LeagueCapper | 76 |
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Not sure if this is what you are asking but Ill try and answer as best I can. All Vegas wants is 50% monetary value on each side. Around 85% of individual side bets are coming in on West Virginia and 60% of individual ML bets are also on West Virginia. Even though only around 15% of individual bets are on Texas Tech, Vegas has an even amount of money on each side. The line did go down 1 point since the line opened, but that was not because more individual bets were on West Virginia but because more money from the 15% of individual spread bets and the 40% of individual ML bets on Texas Tech outweighed the amount of money coming in on West Virginia. Another reason for a line move though could be an injury which one would need to look out for. If both sides receive an equal amount of money then Vegas wins (10% juice). Vegas sets a line to try and get an equal amount of money on each side. Vegas does not care that 85% of incoming bets are on West Virginia but do care about achieving a monetary value of 50% on each side. The amount of incoming bets on West Virginia says its a public play and the initial 1 point drop in the line would indicate Vegas would like some more action on West Virginia money wise, but does that mean you should fade them? Not necessarily. Public plays win too. If one was to bet plays receiving 75%-80% of incoming bets then he would win around 49% of the time! Hope this helps explain what Vegas is trying to achieve!
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hawgpix | 35 |
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If those are your books lines, my advice is to bet UGA Moneyline +225 and Risk 1 unit to win 2.25 units. Next call a friend that also sports bets and see if he can place a bet on SC's true moneyline -116. Bet $500 on UGA to win $1125 and Bet $825 on SC to win $750. If UGA wins you collect $1125 - $825 = $300. If SC wins you collect $750 - $500 = $250! Hope you have another friend that can place that SC bet for you as that is the sickest free roll
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chopasu | 13 |
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YTD: 3-3 Youngstown State +3 Marist +7 GL all |
AAvKKmbfn | 1 |
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1-1 YTD USC +7...Line just looks off...may regret this one UL Monroe +10.5 Georgia Tech +4 Penn State +3.5 I get all my lines off Bovada.lv GL with everyones plays today. Beat the books!
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AAvKKmbfn | 1 |
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Anyone notice the Milwaukee line? Bucks opened up at +2 and remain at +2 despite the Spurs having over 80% of incoming bets on them! Thatd fall into the category of games yall are looking for if Im not mistaking!
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kosmos4 | 109 |
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NBA: 2-3 1 play today Washington +3...I hate backing them but I think they get their 1st win today! |
AAvKKmbfn | 1 |
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Sick Middle...Very nice hit man! |
smartbets | 11 |
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I meant a middle for those that have the over!
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LeagueCapper | 22 |
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