If the Los Angeles Dodgers win the National League West by a slim margin, they can look to their Coors Field dominance as a key factor in their success. The Dodgers go after their seventh consecutive win in Denver as they continue their four-game weekend set with the Colorado Rockies. Los Angeles extended its run of mile-high success Thursday with an 8-5 victory, but are only slight faves in this one as the Rockies send staff ace Jon Gray to the mound.
While the teams combined for 13 runs in the opener – good for a comfortable over conversion – 11 of those runs came in the final three innings. That said, we like the Rockies to get things started early in this one, with Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda having allowed a whopping 26 runs over the first three innings of his 19 starts this season. The Rockies lead the majors in average first-inning runs per game at home (0.89) – and while Gray boasts a 6.00 ERA in the opening inning this season, it's worth the risk to roll with Colorado to open the scoring at a much better price than you'd be getting on L.A.
Prediction: Rockies to score first (+120)
FIVE INNINGS BET
While Colorado has been a surprisingly great under play at home this season (22-31-2 O/U), that hasn't applied to games against the Dodgers, who have played four consecutive overs at Coors Field. Last night's run distribution is a bit of an anomaly given the Dodgers' normally stable bullpen – but with two elite offenses on display against two starters who have largely underachieved this season, this game should feature plenty of scoring in the first half. The five-innings totals are always higher here than in just about any other park, but the over is still the superior play here.
Prediction: Over 5.5 five-innings total (-120)
The acquisitions of Manny Machado and Brian Dozier at the non-waiver trade deadline signaled that the Dodgers plan to bash opposing teams into oblivion in their quest for a World Series title. And they've certainly done so in their first four games at Coors Field this season, racking up 41 runs on 49 hits over that span. It's almost absurd to see the Dodgers with such a modest hit total Friday. Gray hasn't pitched nearly well enough to earn the benefit of the doubt here, and the L.A. lineup is even more potent than its first series in Denver, when it scored 33 runs in a three-game sweep. This is an easy one.
Prediction: Dodgers over 9.5 hits (-105)
Few teams can match the Rockies when it comes to run-scoring – but the Dodgers are most definitely on that list. And while this one could quite easily devolve into another slugfest, Los Angeles has the better bullpen, even with Kenley Jansen out of action with an irregular heartbeat. Only 10 of the Rockies' 55 home games have been decided by one run, and three of those contests were extra-inning affairs. Multi-run outcomes are the order of the day at Coors Field – and given the Dodgers' success there, along with having the superior lineup, we recommend taking the visitors on the run line.
Prediction: Dodgers run line (+145)
Bettors will need to weigh Colorado's season-long home total trend against the streak of overs the Dodgers and Rockies have put together at Coors Field. And while both teams boast strong starter-related under trends – L.A. is 3-12-1 in Maeda's last 16 starts, while the Rockies have gone under in each of Gray's last seven home outings vs. teams with winning road records – it's hard to see either hurler keeping the opposing lineup in check. These teams have combined to average better than 16 runs in their first four meetings in Colorado, and should go above Friday's total with ease.
Prediction: Over (-110)