The Dallas Cowboys are playing at home on Thanksgiving Day: a holiday tradition right up there with Nan’s gravy and fighting over the remote control.
Dallas welcomes the Buffalo Bills to AT&T Stadium for the middle game of the NFL’s Thanksgiving menu, kicking off a 4:30 p.m. ET. **video
Oddsmakers have the Cowboys set as 7-point home favorites for this annual outing, which has its own NFL betting tradition: Dallas failing to cover. Going back to 2011, America’s Team is 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS on the holiday.
We aren’t just serving up NFL picks on the side and total for this Turkey Day throwdown. We’re giving you a five-course meal of Thanksgiving goodness - from quick-hitting bets to first-half plays to player props and more – when it comes to the betting odds for Bills at Cowboys.
BUFFALO BILLS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-7, 45)
QUICK HITTER
For having one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, the Cowboys move about as fast as your turkey-stuffed Uncle Ray in the opening frame. Dallas averages only 3.6 points per first quarter on the season and has been beaten to the punch on the scoreboard in eight of its 11 games so far.
Buffalo isn’t any much better in the opening 15 minutes, also putting up only 3.6 points per first quarter, but has jumped out to the early lead in five of its last seven games. The Bills do rank fifth in first-quarter points against, allowing only 3.2 on the year, while Dallas gives up an average of 6.3 points in the opening stanza. That poor defense out of the gate has been burned for 28 total first-quarter points over the last three outings.
PREDICTION: First team to score – Buffalo +120
FIRST HALF BET
The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss at New England in Week 12 in which the offense sputtered against the Patriots’ top-ranked defense but also versus the elements (and some shoddy calls from the officials).
There will be no wind or rain inside Jerry’s World Thursday, but the team could be a little flat in a possible letdown spot on the short week. Dallas has some key bodies banged up on the offensive line and that could slow production even more in the opening half versus a Bills stop unit giving only 7.3 first-half points per contest.
Buffalo’s offense averages just 21 points on the season, with 10.4 of those tallies coming in the first half. The Bills faced a quality defense in Denver at home Sunday, settling for two field goals in the opening half.
The Bills have gone run heavy the past three games, splitting rushing and passing 50/50, and went to the ground on more than 64 percent of snaps against the Broncos. Dallas is a poor tackling team and has been gouged on the ground at times. Buffalo will look to ground and pound early on, sucking all the energy out of the stadium in the opening half.
PREDICTION: First half Under 22.5
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Frank Gore may have got the spotlight in Week 12, moving up to third on the NFL’s all-time rushing yards list, but it was his younger counterpart in the backfield that we have our eyes on in Week 13.
Rookie rusher Devin Singletary is beginning to push Gore aside in terms of touches, recording 36 carries the past two games which equalled 181 total yards on the ground. Singletary had a career day against the Broncos’ stout run stop unit, with 21 runs for 106 yards.
Over his last four games, the diminutive back from FAU has 318 total yards and has gone for 75 or more in three of those outings. Dallas’ run stop allowed Patriots RB Sony Michel to go for 85 yards on 20 touches on Sunday and ranks 17th in rushing defense DVOA at FootballOutsiders.
Buffalo’s best shot at slowing down the Cowboys offense lies with the Bills’ run game being able to move the chains and dominate the time of possession – keeping Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott parked on the sideline. That means plenty of the speedy Singletary.
PREDICTION: Devin Singletary – Over 75-plus yards rushing +145
TOTAL BET
This 45-point Over/Under is the tallest total Buffalo has been pegged with all season. The Bills enter Thanksgiving Thursday with a 3-8 Over/Under record on the year but haven’t played an offense like this is a long time.
In fact, this Cowboys offense is far and away the best scoring attack Buffalo has played all season. The Bills defensive numbers have been fattened up by a soft slate of opponents, which is why their defensive DVOA (a more telling advanced metric) ranks them 14th in the NFL – a serious dip from their league rankings of third in yards allowed and points allowed.
While a methodical first half may be harder to swallow than your sister in-law’s attempt at scalloped potatoes, the pace will quicken in the final 30 minutes. Dallas is one of the best second-half teams in the league, posting almost 16 points in the last two quarters at home and let’s not sell Bills QB Josh Allen short either.
Buffalo’s second-year passer plays his best football in the fourth quarter, connecting for six TDs and zero INTs in the final frame while averaging 8.1 yards per completion and boasting a fourth-quarter QB rating of 114.4.
It may be a bit of a sweat for Over bettors, but the Bills and Boys will get there Thanksgiving Day.
PREDICTION: Over 45
POINTSPREAD BET
We opened this betting preview with Dallas’ dismal ATS record in Turkey Day games over the past eight seasons (1-7 ATS if you blocked it out), and while that trend is about as useful as a Thanksgiving Day center piece (IT’S JUST TAKING UP VALUABLE TABLE SPACE!), it does make you pump the breaks on Big D giving a touchdown.
As for this season, the Cowboys have played many of the same opponents as the Bills, with the AFC and NFC East divisions crossing over in 2019. That means Dallas has feasted at the same high-fat table (which Bills Mafia will promptly destroy after dinner) as Buffalo.
It has yet to record a victory over a team with a winning record and is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven versus teams better than .500 and 3-8 ATS in its previous 11 home games versus a team with a positive win/loss count.
Given the Cowboys’ slow starts (-2.7 first-quarter margin) and fantastic finishes (+4.9 fourth-quarter margin), Dallas demands to be live bet for fans of the in-game odds. You can likely get a discounted spread once the team struggles in the opening half.
However, for those playing the full-game pointspread, when you factor in the lack of home-field advantage Dallas has in AT&T Stadium (opponents get pumped up to play in this pigskin palace), seven points seem far too much of a separation between these teams.
PREDICTION: Buffalo +7
