As the NFL Draft ended on April 27, oddsmakers at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas did some final numbers crunching with their NFL betting odds, then released season win totals for every team the next morning. Since then, a couple of last season’s standout squads have actually drawn Under money, with early bettors banking on a backslide.
Covers takes a look at the early action and NFL odds movement on a handful of squads and their 2019 season win totals, with insights from SuperBook manager Derek Wilkinson.**video
Kansas City Chiefs: Season win total 10.5
Patrick Mahomes had a breakout second year in the NFL, guiding Kansas City to the AFC Championship Game after a 12-4 regular season. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs’ win total at 10.5, a number the wiseguys seem to think is a touch high.
“We’ve seen several sharp bets on the Under for the Chiefs,” Wilkinson said, noting that while the total is still 10.5, it’s gone from a -110 pick ‘em to Under -140. “I think a lot of people expect them to regress a little this season. If we continue to see people betting the Under, we could possibly drop it to 10 wins.”
Los Angeles Rams: Season win total 10.5
Los Angeles went 13-3 in the 2018-19 regular season and ultimately reached the Super Bowl before falling to New England 13-3. The Rams also opened with a win total of 10.5 and got the attention of Under players.
“Similar trend here as with the Chiefs,” Wilkinson said, again noting the total hasn’t moved, but the price on the Under went from -120 to -130. “We don’t have as much liability on the Rams as we do with the Chiefs, but the wiseguys definitely like the Under. I think anytime a young team has a great season, the sharps expect them to regress some the next season.”
Buffalo Bills: Season win total 6.5
Buffalo has finished above .500 just two times in the last 15 seasons, while finishing with six wins or less seven times. That includes last season, when the Bills went 6-10. But Buffalo won four of its last seven games, so the SuperBook opened this year’s win total at 6.5.
Bettors seem to think there’s a little to it, perhaps believing quarterback Josh Allen will make strides in his second season. Over 6.5 opened a -160 favorite and was bet up to -180.
“Although this line hasn’t moved too much yet, we have a lot of liability on the Over,” Wilkinson said. “We had a player come in and put $30,000 on the Over, so we’d like to get some Under money before the season starts.”
Tennessee Titans: Season win total 8
Tennessee went 9-7 last year, just missing out on a playoff berth when it lost at home to Indianapolis in Week 17, without starting QB Marcus Mariota (stinger). But prior to that game, the Titans won four in a row and six of eight, and early bettors think there might be a carryover effect.
The Titans’ win total opened at eight, with the Over a +110 underdog. That price has now shortened to even money.
“We’ve taken a few sharp bets on the Over,” Wilkinson said. “We have Under 8 favored for now (-120), but the wiseguys seems to like the Over.”
Arizona Cardinals: Season win total 5
A year ago, Arizona drafted Josh Rosen in the first round, with first-year coach Steve Wilks assuming the UCLA product would be the Cardinals’ quarterback for a long time. But after a 3-13 season, Wilks was fired, Kliff Kingsbury was hired, the Cards drafted QB Kyler Murray out of Oklahoma, and Rosen was traded to Miami.
With that much offseason turbulence, it’s no surprised that Arizona’s win total was a meager five, with the Over/Under a pick ‘em at -110. That said, early dollars flowed toward the Over, taking that price to -130.
“I don’t think anyone expects the Cardinals to be good this year,” Wilkinson said. “However, five is such a low number that we’ve seen a fair amount of bets on the Over. We’ll see how that works out for them.”
Cleveland Browns: Season win total 9
After going a perfectly miserable 0-16 in 2017-18, Cleveland drafted Baker Mayfield and expected much better things. The Browns ultimately got that, but not before opening 2-5-1 and firing coach Hue Jackson. Then Mayfield & Co. won five of their last eight games and nearly a sixth, falling to Baltimore 26-24 in the finale to finish 7-8-1.
And in the offseason, Cleveland made a big splash by landing stud wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in a trade with the Giants.
All that has made the Browns – who in January hired Freddie Kitchens as the new coach – a sexy pick to win the AFC North. The SuperBook responded accordingly, opening the win total at nine for a team that two seasons ago had zero victories.
But for the moment, this year’s total has stopped bettors in their tracks.
“Surprisingly, we’ve had very little action on the Browns. Not much from the wiseguys or even the public,” Wilkinson said. “I think it’s because the number is so much higher than last year (6).”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
