Alex Ovechkin's potentially big weekend highlights a fun NHL slate, which includes the league's top Over play cooling off considerably, and a St. Louis Blues team looking to continue its positive regression in one-goal games. Here are the top NHL games and betting tips to monitor for the weekend's games.
The Great 8 in a Great Spot
It's hard to believe, but Ovechkin – who has a league-best 25 goals entering Thursday night – could become the oldest player to lead the NHL in tallies since Phil Esposito racked up 61 as a 33-year-old in 1974-75. And Ovi will be licking his chops as his Washington Capitals visit the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday before returning home to face the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday. Ovechking has scored 30 or more goals against 11 teams in his career – and the Hurricanes (36 goals in 73 career meetings) and Sabres (30 goals in 45 games) are both on that list. He's a terrific goal option on the player prop front.
No Longer Singing the Blues
One-goal games are no longer a problem for the St. Louis Blues, who are creeping up the Western Conference standings heading into Friday's showdown with the visiting Colorado Avalanche. After kicking off the 2018-19 campaign with losses in each of their first eight one-goal affairs (0-5-3), the Blues have bounced back to go 3-0-1 since, including a 4-3 win over the Florida Panthers last time out. They could extend that run against an Avs team that has won just 27.3 percent of its one-goal decisions (3-3-5). Consider the Blues +1 margin of victory prop in this one.
Sens-ing a Missed Opportunity
The Ottawa Senators won Over bettors an awful lot of money over their first 29 games of the season – but a natural regression has begun for the Sens as they take on the host Detroit Red Wings on Friday night. Ottawa opened the season having gone an incredible 21-6-2 O/U, but have since converted the Under in three consecutive games, with a total of 10 goals scored in those contests. With these two teams having gone below the number six straight times, expect the Under to hit again. Ottawa tangles with Montreal on Saturday; the rivals have averaged seven goals in their last three meetings.
Road Warriors
Recent meetings between Buffalo and Boston have been punctuated by home fans going home unhappy – and that bodes well for the Sabres as they visit the Bruins in a Sunday evening encounter. The road team has won 12 of the previous 17 meetings between the Atlantic Division rivals, including five of the past seven. Under bettors should also take note: the teams have combined to score five or fewer goals in 13 of their past 18 games, most recently a 4-0 Bruins victory in the season opener on Oct. 5 in Buffalo.
Goalie Profile: Mike Smith, Calgary Flames
Is all forgiven in Calgary? Perhaps not, but Smith is doing his best to win back fans and bettors who might have bailed on him following a subpar start to the season. The Flames have won each of Smith's previous seven appearances, though he left after two periods in Wednesday's 6-5 overtime triumph over Flyers. His full-season stats (2.99 GAA, .888 SV%) still aren't that impressive, but he has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his past seven games and is worth investing in as long as Calgary is running hot.
Injury Update
Normally, this space features bad news – but we're highlighting the triumphant return of Andrei Vasilevskiy to Tampa Bay. He returns to a Lightning lineup that played incredibly well without him, going 12-2 in his absence en route to the best record in the NHL. Vasilevskiy, who was sidelined with a broken foot, is in good position to help the Lightning keep rolling; he was 9-3-1 with a 2.29 goals-against average, a .927 save percentage and one shutout in 13 games prior to the injury. Tampa Bay enters the weekend as a +350 favorite to capture the Stanley Cup.
Hat Trick Trends
• Overs are back in a big way, with 32 of 49 games (65.3 percent) surpassing the total over the seven-day period going into Thursday night. Overs have now cashed 54.1 percent of the time over the past 30 days, though the season-long split is still incredibly close at at 50.8 percent in favor of the over.
• Looking for a lucrative combo play? Referee Kevin Pollock has the hook-up. Not only have Pollock's games produced the highest ROI for home bettors (+14.86 units), teams have gone 7-15 O/U over that span. So the next time Pollock hits the ice, bettors should consider the home team puckline and the Under.
• Live betting tip: It's OK to bail on three teams in particular when the opposing team scores first. The Los Angeles Kings, Chicago Blackhawks and New Jersey Devils all entered Thursday with identical 10 percent win rates when allowing the opening goal – so if they fall behind 1-0, you should load up on the opponent.
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