The College Football Playoff culminates tonight at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with one team in very familiar territory, and the other a newcomer. And both are from the same conference. Covers checks in on the action and line movement, with insights from Devyn Brackett, sports analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
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No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs – Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4
Alabama is playing in its third straight CFP championship game, splitting the previous two against Clemson, with a win two years ago and a last-second loss last year. The Crimson Tide (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) got No. 1 Clemson out of the way a week earlier this year, with a defensively dominant 24-6 Sugar Bowl victory as a 3.5-point chalk in last week’s CFP semifinals.
Georgia (13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS) won the Southeastern Conference crown by blowing out Auburn in the title game, but had its hands much more full with No. 2 Oklahoma in last week’s other semifinal at the Rose Bowl. The Bulldogs trailed 31-14 late in the second quarter, rallied to take a 38-31 lead, then won in double overtime 54-48 as a 2.5-point favorite.
“We have taken multiple five-figure bets on Alabama,” Brackett said of pointspread activity at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “It’s completely one-sided action on Alabama, on account and over the counter.”
BetOnline.ag opened ‘Bama -4 and bounced between 3.5 and 4.5 during the week before settling at 3.5 since Friday.
“We saw some sharp action on Georgia +4.5. That pushed our odds down to the current number of ‘Bama -3.5,” Mason said. “So we have some reverse line movement going on, since 64 percent of the cash is on Bama.”
CG opened the total at 47 and got as low as 44.5 before ticking up to 45 on Sunday.
“Sharps are staying away from the total, while we have taken an $11,000 over bet over the counter,” Brackett said, while noting the ideal outcome for CG books. “We need Georgia to win and stay under.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
Sportsbooks are going to need Georgia to cover as sharps and public both on Alabama
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