One of the most entertaining lefty matchups in baseball will be extended by one more chapter Monday night as Madison Bumgarner and the Giants take on Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.
Host Los Angeles is a hefty favorite in this one despite being mired in a three-game losing skid that has it perilously close to falling into third spot in the National League West. The Giants have a massive hill to climb to remain in the playoff hunt, but appear to be in good hands with Bumgarner.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-210, 7)
QUICK-HITTER
Getting to the park late? You probably won't miss much. These two pitchers have been positively stingy in the opening inning so far this season. Bumgarner has yet to allow a first-inning run through 12 starts, and has limited opponents to a .143/.250/.190 slash line over that span. Kershaw has been nearly as good, boasting a 1.59 ERA with a .153/.219/.220 slash. Bettors and fans alike shouldn't be surprised to see both teams put up nothing but zeroes at the plate in the first inning.
PREDICTION: Under two first-inning hits (-120)
FIVE INNINGS BET
When you have two hurlers capable of dealing like Bumgarner and Kershaw, there's significant value in riding with the pitchers' duel. Bumgarner has allowed just seven runs over his previous five starts – a span of 30 innings – while Kershaw has held opponents to two or fewer runs eight times in nine starts since returning from injury. The five-innings total of 3.5 is already quite low – but with the way these guys have been dealing, we recommend an alternate total that's even lower.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 five-inning runs (+175)
TEAM/PLAYER BET
The Dodgers have been quite careful with Kershaw, allowing him to pitch into the seventh inning just twice since he returned nine starts ago. Assuming he goes six innings, that gives the Giants nine outs worth of at-bats to attack a Dodgers bullpen that has four relievers boasting ERAs north of 10.00 so far this month. Even if San Francisco can't scratch out much vs. Kershaw, they should be able to do enough against Los Angeles relievers to surpass their modest team run total.
PREDICTION: Giants Over 2.5 runs (-130)
FULL-GAME SIDE
This is a get-right game for the Dodgers, who didn't make significant deadline deals for Manny Machado and Brian Dozier just to finish out of the postseason race. Bumgarner is a worthy foil, and a Los Angeles lineup that produced just nine total runs in the final three games of a series at Coors Field can be hard to trust. But the Dodgers have outscored the Giants by 78 runs this season, and have the right guy on the mound to snap that ugly losing skid. We like the home team in a close one.
PREDICTION: Dodgers one-run margin of victory (+300)
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FULL-GAME TOTAL
Do the math associated with the previous two picks, and we're looking at a 4-3 Dodgers victory – and that means a dreaded push, if the total remains where it is. And while choosing these teams to hit right on the number pays a handsome +550, there's a slightly safer – if far less profitable – route to success. While the majority of Bumgarner trends point toward the Under, the Dodgers are 6-2 O/U in Kershaw's last eight home starts. Shrink the total by a half-point and take the Over with confidence.
PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (-140)
