Heading into the U.S. Open, bettors were again attracted to Tiger Woods, with largely public action piling up liability. And the public loves them some Phil Mickelson, too. Through two rounds, though, neither those two nor the major dominator Brooks Koepka have been the story at Pebble Beach.
Englishman Justin Rose led after his 6-under 65 in Round 1, and American Gary Woodland put up his own superb 65 in Friday’s second round to grab the lead at 9-under 133, two strokes clear of Rose heading into the weekend.
The SuperBook at Westgate couldn’t have drawn it up much better so far.
“I can tell you that, of the guys that were in to the top 30 or so on our list, the only person with less tickets than Woodland was Sergio Garcia,” SuperBook manager Eric Osterman told Covers on Friday night. “However, the money on Woodland wasn’t super light. We took a bet on him at 80/1 to win mid-five-figures. That’s why we don’t do as well on him as we do on Rose, but we still do pretty well on him.”
Woodland’s effort wasn’t enough to move him to the favorite, though, or even the second choice, as he’s now 5/1 to win the tournament. Rory McIlroy, despite sitting four shots back in a tie for fourth at 5-under 137, is the 4/1 chalk to hoist the trophy Sunday, followed by Rose at 9/2.
“I’m actually surprised. I went into it thinking Rose would be the favorite,” Osterman said of his process in adjusting the odds. “But when you dive into the stats, Rose’s putter has saved him quite a bit so far. He’s gonna need to hit it a lot better, especially if the greens keep getting firmer.
“Rory has been known to start slow, but he didn’t this time. If he goes through his normal trend of playing well on the weekend, that’s why he’s the favorite. We don’t want to give away too much value. Rory is really good for us, actually better than Woodland.”
McIlroy was 10/1 entering the tournament and 7/1 after his opening 3-under 68, then shot 2-under 69 Friday.
Koepka, gunning for his third straight U.S. Open title and his fifth win in his last nine major starts, is certainly in the picture. Koepka shot back-to-back 2-under 69s and was tied for sixth at 4-under 138, moving from 8/1 Thursday night to 6/1 Friday night.
To get to all The SuperBook’s liability, though, you have to drop down to Mickelson at 1-under 141 and Woods at even-par 142, tied for 27th and 32nd, respectively.
“I would say we’re more worried about Mickelson,” Osterman said after watching Lefty make six birdies Friday, while Woods had just one. “We have Tiger at 50/1 and Mickelson at 60/1, but when you look at the way Phil played, he made a ton of birdies. He just backed them up with bogeys. If he can limit his mistakes, it seems he’s more capable of getting birdies than Tiger.”
One golfer who regularly sees a fair amount of action is Rickie Fowler, and this tournament was no different. However, Fowler dropped from a tie for second after the first round, one stroke off the lead, to a tie for 45th after imploding with a 5-over 77. Thursday night, Fowler was 9/1; Friday night, he was 125/1.
“Today played a lot tougher,” Osterman said. “Look at Fowler. He seems to get action in every major, because he puts himself in position every single time. But he tends to start off hot, then play worse as the tournament goes along. It’s his M.O. to fade, but normally not in the second round.”
Osterman said the cutline of 3-over 145 was friendly to most of the contenders, and therefore it was friendly to The SuperBook with regard to proposition bets on which players would make it to the weekend.
“The only top players to miss the cut were Justin Thomas and Tony Finau,” Osterman said of two players who fell one stroke short. “So we’ll do pretty well on the will they/won’t they make the cut. A lot of people like to take No on the top players, because you get a big price on those.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
