The best defense is a good offense or so the saying goes in sports - although the Oklahoma Sooners are putting that theory to test.
The Sooners are third in the nation in points per game (87.0) and their freshman point guard Trae Young leads the country in scoring and assists. And yet Oklahoma is one of the worst bets in college basketball with an ugly 8-18 ATS record following Monday's 104-74 beatdown at the hands of the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Sooners are 0-6 straight up in their last six games and 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 games. OU fans downplaying their team’s poor run would fit perfectly in a meme featuring a house fire and a talking dog seating at the kitchen table claiming everything is fine.
Meanwhile, Virginia, the best defensive team in college hoops, is first in the AP Poll rankings and is covering the spread at a 77 percent rate. The Cavaliers aren’t the only D-orientated team making money for their backers this season. Michigan, Texas Tech and Cincinnati are a combined 43-30-2 ATS and all near locks to receive invites to the NCAA Tournament.
| Team | Points Per Game | Season ATS |
| Oklahoma | 87.5 | 8-18 |
| Villanova | 87.4 | 18-9 |
| Duke | 87.4 | 16-9 |
| Gonzaga | 85.2 | 11-14-11 |
| Creighton | 85.1 | 12-13 |
| Xavier | 85.1 | 19-9 |
| Auburn | 84.7 | 18-7 |
| UNLV | 84.7 | 12-14-1 |
| Savannah State | 84.5 | 0-1 |
| TCU | 84.4 | 13-12-1 |
What does this mean to college basketball bettors? Which dominant trait (offense or defense) is a more profitable one when it comes to betting on college basketball? The 10 teams allowing the fewest points per game this season are covering the spread at a 56.7 percent clip while the 10 squads averaging the most points are winning ATS at 54.4 percent.
| Team | Points Allowed Per Game | Season ATS |
| Virginia | 52.7 | 17-5-1 |
| Cincinnati | 57.1 | 13-10-1 |
| Central Florida | 60.3 | 13-8 |
| Old Dominion | 62 | 11-13 |
| Texas Tech | 62.5 | 13-10 |
| Southern Methodist | 63.1 | 7-13-2 |
| Syracuse | 63.4 | 11-14 |
| Michigan | 63.5 | 17-10-1 |
| Loyola-Chicago | 63.5 | 16-7-1 |
| Grand Canyon | 63.8 | 1-1 |
Looking at the top 10 in offense and defense in college basketball in each of the last five seasons we found the slight wagering edge goes to elite defenses over high-quality offenses. Top-10 defensive teams in points per game are covering the spread in 55.2 percent of their games since the beginning of the 2012-2013 campaign whereas top-offenses own a 53.7 percent ATS win rate.
“There’s a high variance in 3-point shooting which makes it difficult to predict from a game-to-game basis,” Covers Expert Steve Merril says. “I prefer to lean on slow-paced defensive teams like Virginia rather than the up-tempo, 3-point shooting teams like North Carolina and Duke."
The strategy shouldn’t be followed on the way to the futures book. Eight of the last 10 national champions have ranked inside Ken Pomerory’s adjusted offensive efficiency. North Carolina won last season with the ninth highest-scoring offense and the 127th ranked defense in points allowed per game.
Teams like Virginia might be better for regular season betting but come tournament time it’s important to identify sides that can score against solid defensive teams.
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