Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.
Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Covers’ Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 11 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: CHICAGO BEARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5, 41)
This line has flirted with a touchdown since opening. Some books hung Rams -7 out of the gate and that got bet down to -6.5 while others are clinging to that spread and hiking the juice on Los Angeles.
If you like the Rams to rebound from a Week 10 loss at Pittsburgh and perform better back in L.A. on Sunday Night Football, get this spread below the touchdown now.
According to our Covers Consensus, 67 percent of wagers are riding on Los Angeles early in the week and the public will undoubtedly join in on that opinion closer to kickoff. Chicago may have snapped its four-game losing skid last Sunday, but that win came against a Detroit Lions squad missing QB Matthew Stafford.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3.5, 44.5)
Oh boy, the media is going to have a field day with this rematch of Super Bowl LII. Revenge will be the overwhelming theme and that will play into the public, even though the mastermind of the “Philly Special” Nick Foles is taking snaps for Jacksonville now.
The Eagles opened as low as +3 and quickly went to +3.5. I don’t expect the line to stop there, and if you like Philadelphia you might want to play it cool and see how high this goes.
Both teams are coming off the bye week, and while the Eagles may not fear the big bad Patriots like other teams, New England is coming off a loss (to Baltimore in Week 9) and boasts a 47-9 SU and 40-16 ATS record in that spot since 2003. If you dare to push back against this 70 percent winner, pump the breaks and wait for more on the Eagles.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 53 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The NFL heads south of the border for this AFC West matchup in Mexico City. Books posted the total between 52.5 and 53 (even some 53.5 out there) but I see this number ticking down before the Monday night kickoff.
Los Angeles has been spotty on offense at best. The Chargers should have blown the Packers clean out of the water two weeks ago but settled for five field goals attempts (made four of them) in a 26-point effort. Then, they scored just 24 points in a loss versus the Raiders on Thursday. That’s not going to be enough to keep pace with Kansas City.
Now, everyone remembers the debacle of last year’s Mexico City game – Chiefs vs. Rams – when the field wasn’t up to snuff (and moved to L.A.). It looks like the field at Estadio Azteca will pass code this time (at least enough to play), but the altitude in Mexico City (which sits 7,350 feet above sea level – more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver) will play a role and come the fourth quarter, these teams could be running on empty. If you like the Under, get this total as high as you can now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 44 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Foles gets Take 2 with the Jaguars after lasting eight pass attempts in Week 1 before breaking his collarbone and turning the keys over to rookie QB Gardner Minshew. But with Minshew showing his rookie stripes in recent efforts, Jacksonville has just cause to start their $88 million investment now that he's healthy.
On the other side of the field, Colts QB Jacoby Brissett should be back in action. Indianapolis held him out of Week 10’s game with Miami – perhaps thinking it could get by the Fins with Brian Hoyer under center – and got beat. His return to play as well as Foles’ could prompt some movement upwards for this total – if even just a point or so.
Both teams have sound defenses and will lean more on the ground game on the offensive side of the ball, which is why this number is pretty low to begin with. There are some 44.5 Over/Under numbers starting to show and added juice to the Over 44 at other books, so wait and see if you can get a little higher before bagging the Under in this AFC South showdown.
