The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.
How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised. Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig-Zags from 1991 through 2014.
Game On, Dude
Overall: 786-693-37 • 53.1 percent
Game 2: 195-153-13 • 54.7 percent
Game 3: 195-159-6 • 55.1 percent
Game 4: 159-163-8 • 49.4 percent
Game 5: 128-121-6 • 51.4 percent
Game 6: 79-70-2 • 53.0 percent
Game 7: 30-27-2 • 52.6 percent
The strength of NBA Zig-Zags appears to be in Game 3 where they become a better than 55 percent pointspread play on the blind.
Burn baby burn
Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.
A combination of the law of averages and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig-Zags go up in smoke since 2001.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 14 years (2001-2014), going 475-444-27– or 51.6 percent - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5 percent - in games played from 1991-2000.
That’s a decline of nearly four full percentage points. Talk about a buzz kill.
Round ‘em up
Here is a breakdown of how the Zig-Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:
Round 1: 377-330-21 • 53.3 percent
Round 2: 235-205-7 • 53.4 percent
Round 3: 116-108-6 • 51.8 percent
Round 4: 58-50-3 • 53.7 percent
While it appears there is no discernable edge between rounds, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round 2 have delivered the largest profits, as they are 80-51-3.
Planting the seed
Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:
No. 1 Seeds: 110-101-5 • 52.1 percent
No. 2 Seeds: 107-86-4 • 55.4 percent
No. 3 Seeds: 91-80-9 • 53.2 percent
No. 4 Seeds: 79-71-1• 52.7 percent
No. 5 Seeds: 72-68-2• 51.4 percent
No. 6 Seeds: 62-55-2• 53.0 percent
No. 7 Seeds: 42-61-4• 40.8 percent
No. 8 Seeds: 62-44-5 • 58.5 percent
Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.
Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
Rocky Mountain high
So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig-Zags these days, you ask?
Simple. Look to back double-digit underdogs when they are off a SU and ATS loss. They’ve stood the test of time, going 33-18-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 64.7 percent winning percentage when you think about it.
