The Tennessee Volunteers are the top team in the country according to the polls – but they're far from a perfect cover play as they take on Big 12 rival West Virginia on Saturday in what is shaping up to be an exciting weekend of college basketball action. That game highlights a full weekend schedule, which includes the Buffalo Bulls looking to rebound from their second loss of the season, and Michigan State and Purdue looking to crush the over yet again. Here are the top games, trends and betting tips to monitor heading into the next three days of NCAA hoops play:
Buffalo Bouncing Back?
A disheartening loss to Northern Illinois earlier this week shouldn't dissuade bettors from jumping back on the Buffalo Bulls' bandwagon as they look to rebound Friday night at Kent State. The Bulls (17-2 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) have been one of the stronger bounce-back options in all of Division I, having gone 20-9-1 ATS in their past 30 games following a straight-up defeat and 5-2 ATS in their previous seven after an ATS setback. And they've been an even better over choice in those situations, having surpassed the total in 65 of their last 89 games following a straight-up loss.
Vols Volatile vs. Big 12
These days, it's great to be a Tennessee Vol – but bettors should be wary of making a spread wager on the No. 1 team in the nation Saturday against the visiting Mountaineers. Tennessee has covered just three of its previous 11 games against Big 12 opponents, and has gone 0-4 ATS in its past four encounters with West Virginia. The Vols have also had major problems coming through for bettors when facing weak road opponents, having covered just one of its past five home meetings against teams with away winning percentages of .400 or lower.
Big Matchup, Small Score?
Basketball fans are in for a treat as major programs Kansas and Kentucky square off for the third time in two years Saturday at Rupp Arena. And while these teams are well-known for their offensive capabilities – averaging a combined 158.1 points for the season entering the weekend – their defense has made their recent matchups a boon for under bettors. The Jayhawks and Wildcats have played to the under in seven of their previous nine meetings overall, including a 65-61 slog in their previous encounter Nov. 14, 2017 – a game that fell 24.5 points below the Vegas total.
MSU, Purdue Primed for a Slugfest
Oddsmakers have had a hard time with totals for recent meetings between Michigan State and Purdue at Mackey Arena – and over bettors hope that trend continues as the Big Ten rivals do battle Sunday night. Not only have the teams finished above the total in each of their previous six meetings at Purdue since 2011, more often than not they've gone well over the number, with four of those games finishing at least 15 points above the Vegas target. Michigan State leads the conference in scoring at 83.2 points per game, while Purdue is third at 78.2.
Mid-Major to Watch: Vermont Catamounts (15-5 SU, 12-5-2 ATS, 12-7 O/U)
While the Catamounts are coming off a disheartening 13-point loss as a 13.5-point favorite against the UMBC Retrievers – you might remember them, especially if you're a Virginia fan – Vermont remains a mid-major to watch heading into the final week of January. The Catamounts had gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their six games prior to that defeat, and remain a stout challenger to Stony Brook for top spot in the America East Conference standings.
Vermont boasts a modest scoring average of 75.4 points per game, but has been one of the top teams in the country from the free-throw line, converting 75.8 percent of its attempts (tied for 23rd in Division I). The Catamounts have also been impressive on the defensive end, limiting opponents to 66.4 points per contest (56th in the country) and a 43.2-percent field-goal success rate. Vermont looks to continue its success Saturday against the conference-leading Seawolves.
National Title Odds
That matchup between the Jayhawks and Wildcats could provide a significant boost to the winner's national championship odds – or, at the very least, send the loser tumbling down the table. Kentucky enters the game at +1,400 to win the NCAA title, tied with Tennessee for the fourth-best odds. Kansas is next in line at +1,600.
Betting Trends
- Are teams tightening up the defense as the games take on added significance? Non-overtime unders have been a terrific option over the past seven days, having been converted at a 56.5-percent rate in that span. Unders for all games over that stretch are at 54.4 percent, pushing the season-to-date under conversion rate to 51.9 percent.
- Oddsmakers have won the spread battle over the past week. Favorites have a razor-thin edge over that period, going 166-165-2 ATS. Underdogs are still the superior spread choice over the previous 30 days worth of games (51.5 percent), and are succeeding at a 50.3-percent clip for the season.
- There's a new leader in the "Bad SU, Great ATS" race. Congratulations, Jackson State! The Tigers are enduring a rough season on the surface, entering Saturday's game against host Grambling with a 6-13 mark that ranks them sixth in the SWAC standings. But Jackson State is an incredible 13-4 ATS, while adding a 5-11 O/U mark.
