ACC tournament Quarterfinals odds, predictions and NCAA basketball best bets

Mar 14, 2019 |

It’s what college basketball fans have been waiting for. ACC tournament quarterfinals tips off Thursday and that means the big boys all take the court as Virginia, North Carolina and Duke all have their eyes on a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. And to top it all off, Duke freshman phenom, Zion Williamson, is expected to make his return to the Blue Devils’ lineup. We deliver the must-read betting notes to help you crack the odds in the ACC tournament.

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Virginia Cavaliers

Odds: UVA -10.5, 132.5 O/U @ Points Bet
Start Time: 12:30 p.m. ET Spectrum Center, Charlotte
Season Series: UVA 1-0 SU, NCST 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Virginia is doing its best to try and make everyone forgot about its historically stunning defeat in the opening round of last year’s NCAA tournament. Virginia starts another postseason filled with promise when it takes on eighth-seeded North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.

The Cavaliers rolled to a 28-2 record and are on their way to another No. 1 seed and were a fantastic bet all season at 22-8 ATS. That includes an 11-2 ATS record away from home.

The Cavaliers once again led the nation in scoring defense (54.6) but packed in a bit more offensive punch this season behind All-ACC first-teamers Kyle Guy (15.3) and De'Andre Hunter (15.2), who combined to hit 45.7 percent attempts from 3-point range. They are also the best in the nation at defending the 3-ball limiting opponents to a putrid 27.3 percent.

That doesn’t bode well for a streaky NC State squad, despite the fact they pushed Virginia to overtime in an eventual one-point loss in these teams only meeting this season. NC State also likely punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament after its win over fellow bubble team Clemson. So, there may not be the same intensity for the Wolfpack in this one.

Hey, anything can happen in March (right UMBC?), but the way Virginia has honed its offensive craft while still running that stifling defense, makes this seem like a long shot for NC State, even at a number this big. Don't be afraid to lay double-digit points with this favorite.

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Florida State Seminoles

Odds: FSU +1, 134.5 O/U @ Points Bet
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET Spectrum Center, Charlotte
Season Series: FSU 1-0 SU/ATS, 1-0 O/U

Fifth-seeded Virginia Tech takes on No.4 Florida State in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament Thursday, after the Hokies easily dispatched of Miami in their Second Round matchup.

Virginia Tech and Florida State will be facing off for the second time this season and the second time in 10 days after the Seminoles managed a 73-64 overtime win at home on March 5. Florida State managed to rally from a 14-point halftime deficit in that win, but that could be harder on a neutral court this time around.

When it comes to true shooting percentage Virginia Tech ranks first in the ACC and seventh in the country in 3-point shooting percentage. That continued Wednesday as the Hokies shot 50 percent against the Hurricanes., including 11-27 from deep. And while the Seminoles rank highly in overall opponent field goal percentage, they are one of the worst teams in the ACC at defending the 3-ball and rank 141st nationally.

As noted by their first meeting, Florida State is more of a second half team. Over their last three games FSU has a -5.3 average first half margin and a +9.7 second half margin. While the Hokies have one of the best first half margins in the country at +7.1, and +15 over their last three games. The Seminoles should have fresher legs later in the game with the Hokies playing yesterday. So, to be safe, take Virginia Tech on the first half moneyline.

Louisville Cardinals vs North Carolina Tar Heels

Odds: UNC -7, 150.5 @ Points Bet
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET Spectrum Center, Charlotte
Season Series: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U

Second-seeded North Carolina has its eyes on a No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament, but they’ll likely need a nice run in the conference tourney to do so. First up in the Tar Heels path is No. 7 Louisville, which easily dispatched of Notre Dame 73-53 and 8-point faves in the last round.

This is an intriguing matchup in which both teams won handily outright and covered in each other’s home arena, where they averaged a combined146.5 points per game. So, what to make of this neutral site showdown?

UNC ranks first in the ACC and third in the country in scoring at a whopping 86.6. points per game, but Louisville seem to have the formula to deal with the Heels. The Cardinals held the UNC to an average of 70.5 points per game on 38.3 percent shooting, which includes a ridiculous 19.3 percent from deep.

On the other side, Louisville is an average scoring team at 74.7 points per game, but they can go cold at times, as evidenced by their 43.5 shooting percentage (232nd in Div I). UNC isn’t as bad on defense as some might think. Look for these teams to go Under for the third straight meeting and the seventh time in the last eight.

Syracuse Orange vs Duke Blue Devils

Odds: DUKE -11, 143.5 O/U @ Points Bet
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET Spectrum Center, Charlotte
Season Series: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Freshman phenom Zion Williamson is expected to make his return for No. 3 seeded Duke as they take on No. 6 seed Syracuse in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. Williamson has missed six games since February 20 due to a sprained knee after blowing through his sneaker in the opening moments of Duke’s home game against North Carolina.

Duke went 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS with Zion, but one of the teams they defeated was Syracuse at the hostile Carrier Dome, winning 75-65 as 5.5-point road favorites. But the Orange were one of two teams to beat the Blue Devils with the potential first pick in June’s NBA draft on the floor for the whole game.

Syracuse knocked off Pittsburgh 73-59 in the second round Wednesday to set up the rubber match, but Orange leading scorer Tyus Battle (17.2 points per game) did not play against the Panthers with a hip injury and his status for the quarterfinals is uncertain.

Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone will be put to the test in this one. The Orange rank 14th in the nation in opponent field goal percent, so the plan will be to make Duke a jump shooting team, which is the biggest area they have struggled in this season.  

While a relatively small percentage of Duke’s points come from deep, the team ranks 337th in 3-point shooting percentage. And if Coach K tries to ease Williamson into the flow of the game, this game could be close heading into half. Take the points with Cuse on the first half spread.

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