As long as Aaron Rodgers is the Packers starting quarterback, the Packers will be favorites to win the NFC North. That will be the case once again in 2017 as they are laying chalk to win their sixth division title in the last seven year. Covers Expert Steve Merril gives a team-by-team breakdown of the whole division, including his season win total picks. **video
Chicago Bears (2016: 3-13 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Odds to win division: +2500
Season win total: 5.5
Why to bet the Bears: Jordan Howard accounted for over 1,600 yards in 2016 and that was with a lot of uncertainty around him on offense. Cam Meredith showed flashes of brilliance at wide receiver with almost 900 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Mitchell Trubisky will be a solid option at quarterback when he eventually takes over. The team spent a lot of money this offseason to upgrade the defense.
Why not to bet the Bears: Until John Fox figures out Trubisky is the answer, the team will continue to use Mike Glennon who is not very good. The defensive line's ability to get to the quarterback is a concern. Three of the final four games are on the road and they start the year out with Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Green Bay.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Detroit Lions (2016: 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Odds to win division: +600
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Lions: Matt Stafford is playing for a new contract this year so he'll be highly motivated to succeed. Reports out of training camp say rookie Kenny Golladay will make a difference in the wide receiver corps and in the red zone. Darius Slay is one of the better cornerbacks in the league. Matt Prater and Sam Martin form a fantastic special teams group.
Why not to bet the Lions: The defensive line has taken a few injuries already this offseason including Kerry Hyder who had eight sacks in 2016. Ameer Abdullah is supposed to be the feature back, but the team needs to get more from the run to keep defenses honest. Abdullah has missed some time in the past, so it could be a concern that he won't be able to stand up to a regular workload. The road slate is rough with trips to New Orleans, New York, Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Green Bay Packers (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Odds to win division: -240
Season win total: 10.5
Why to bet the Packers: You really only need Aaron Rodgers as a reason to bet this team. He's got Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb back as well as Martellus Bennett who will be big for the team across the middle. Rodgers is the most effective when he's spreading the ball around. Mason Crosby came up clutch last year in close games when Green Bay needed him. The secondary is much improved just a season after they were ranked 31st in football against the pass.
Why not to bet the Packers: The run game still needs a lot of work with Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams vying for carries. Montgomery is a converted WR while Williams is a rookie. The team is relying on a lot of young players on defense especially if they start Kevin King at corner right out of college. Three of their final four games are on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 10.5
Minnesota Vikings (2016: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Odds to win division: +350
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Vikings: The loss of Adrian Peterson was mitigated by the additions of Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. Cook is going to add some speed to the backfield and provide another option in the passing game. Sam Bradford will actually get a whole offseason with the team as opposed to last year when he came over just before the regular season began. The defense is littered with young talent including Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph.
Why not to bet the Vikings: Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen were good last year, but can they take the next step and be consistent? The offensive line was a massive issue last year with injuries ravaging the group. Their health will be important in keeping Bradford upright. Kai Forbath's reliability in close games is unknown as he only attempted 15 field goals last year.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
