Georgia odds draw action, but books expect to need Alabama in SEC title game

Alabama and Georgia lined up in last season's national title game, with 'Bama winning. The Crimson Tide are 12.5-point favorites in the SEC title game and will have plenty of public support by kickoff.

Patrick Everson
Dec 1, 2018 • 04:45 ET
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Conference championship Saturday has arrived, with a host of games that will impact which teams advance to the College Football Playoff. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for those contests and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas, and Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -13.5; Move: -13; Move: -13.5; Move: -13; Move: -13.5; Move: -13; Move: -12.5; Move: -13; Move: -12.5

With a win in this neutral-site game in Atlanta, Alabama can claim the Southeastern Conference crown and cement a chance to defend its national title. The Crimson Tide (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) come into this 4 p.m. ET clash off a 52-21 rout of Auburn as 25.5-point home favorites.

Georgia beat Auburn in last year’s SEC title game, then lost to Alabama in overtime in an all-SEC national championship game. The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) tuned up for Saturday’s clash with a 45-21 nonconference win over Georgia Tech as 17-point home faves.

The SuperBook initially saw some sharp Georgia money after this line posted Sunday night, taking the line to 13. The number has bounced around a bit, sitting at Alabama -12.5 on Friday night.

“We had a house player come in on Thursday night and take Georgia. If the game was played now, we’d need Alabama,” Osterman said. “But this is an afternoon game, so there’s plenty of time to take Alabama pointspread money and parlay money. I think we’ll need Georgia by kickoff. That’s the way it’s been with Alabama games all year.”

The Mirage and other MGM books also opened Alabama -13.5 and were down to -12.5, though wagers were running quite even.

“We’re almost dead even. It’s two-way ticket count and money,” Shelton said. “Georgia is really good, and that’s a big spread. But it’s early. All it takes is one big player to come in and give us a decision.”

No. 14 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners – Open: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -8

Oklahoma gets an opportunity to avenge its only loss of the season in this noon ET kickoff for the Big 12 conference title. The Sooners (11-1 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) got all they could handle at West Virginia last week, but came away with a 59-56 win as 3-point road favorites.

Texas beat Oklahoma 48-45 as 7-point underdogs at the Cotton Bowl in October, and now faces another neutral-site tilt in the Red River Rivalry, at AT&T Stadium. Last week, the Longhorns (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) fended off Kansas 24-17 laying 15.5 points on the road.

“Most of the action has been at 8, and the majority of that is Oklahoma money,” Osterman said. “A little sharp play on Texas, taking the 8, but we are gonna need Texas for a little bit, and we are gonna need the Under, which is not a huge surprise.”

The total opened at 78, peaked at 78.5, dipped to 77, then went back to 78 at The SuperBook.

MGM books opened Oklahoma -7.5, briefly got to 8.5 and were at 8 the past two days.

“We’re a mid-five-figure loser to Oklahoma right now, and I’d expect that to get much worse,” Shelton said, while noting pointspread ticket count is close, but the money is not so close.

No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: -13.5; Move: -14; Move: -14.5; Move: -14; Move: -14.5

Ohio State is hanging by a thread in the four-team CFP chase, needing a convincing win in the Big Ten title game and probably some help, as well. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a monster win over archrival Michigan, entering as 3.5-point home pups and exiting with a 62-39 victory.

Northwestern went 7-1 SU in its last eight games to earn a berth in this 8 p.m. ET kickoff in Indianapolis. Last week, the Wildcats (8-4 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) posted a 24-16 victory over Illinois giving 16 points at home.

“We’re seeing almost all Ohio State money. People always like to bet what they saw last,” Osterman said. “We got a little Northwestern money at +14.5, one sharp bet, but that won’t do much against the public onslaught of money coming in on Ohio State.”

The Mirage and other MGM books opened Ohio State a tick higher at -14 and were at -14.5 Friday night.

“We are gonna need Northwestern,” Shelton said. “Pointspread ticket count and money are roughly 3/1 on Ohio State, and that’s public play. Looks like we briefly went to 15 and took sharp play on Northwestern there.”

Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 2 Clemson Tigers – Open: -25; Move: -25.5; Move: -26; Move: -26.5; Move: -27.5; Move: -28; Move: -27.5

Clemson was a massive favorite on the opening line for the Atlantic Coast Conference title game, and that number grew throughout the week. The Tigers (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) capped their perfect regular season with a 56-35 nonconference victory over South Carolina laying 25.5 points at home.

Pittsburgh had a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run heading into its regular-season finale. However, the Panthers (7-5 SU and ATS) got drilled at Miami 24-3 as 6-point road underdogs.

“We’ve had almost as close to zero money as you can get on Pittsburgh,” Osterman said of this 8 p.m. ET matchup. “It’s all Clemson money, although there hasn’t been a ton of money. This is not gonna be our biggest decision of the day, but it is our most lopsided action.”

Other noteworthy games:

•    Stanford at California, 3 p.m. ET: “It looks like we’re gonna need Cal for a medium-sized decision,” Shelton said. MGM books opened Stanford -2 and had the Cardinal -3 (-120) by Friday night.

•    Memphis at Central Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET: The SuperBook opened the unbeaten Knights -4, briefly went to -4.5 before dipping to -3.5, then spent most of the week at -3. “Money came in on Memphis at +3.5, and then we went to 3, and money came in on Central Florida,” Osterman said. “So this is just one where we hope it doesn’t land on 3. This is a game where we’re seeing some ‘dog moneyline action, too. But it looks like we will need Memphis, mainly to knock out parlays.”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

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