The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies take to the Sunday night stage for the climax of their five-game set. This game is being played at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania - dubbed the "Little League Classic" - but the field dimensions are very similar to Citizens Bank Park.
New York hands the ball to left hander Jason Vargas while Philadelphia counters with righty Nick Pivetta. From first pitch to bottom of the ninth, here are the five best ways to bet the MLB odds for Mets at Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball:
NEW YORK METS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-180, 9)
QUICK HITTER
The Phillies have been a microwave of run production in recent games, getting hot quickly with three runs in the first inning of both Game 2 and 3 versus the Mets. New York starter Jason Vargas has been slow out of the blocks this season, touting a hefty 14.59 ERA in the opening inning. And his counterpart, Pivetta, hasn’t exactly been lights-out early on either, with a 5.62 ERA in first innings this summer.
PREDICTION: Run in the first inning? Yes (-110)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
The Mets and Phillies topped the five-inning total in each of the first three meetings of this five-game series, with 19 runs scored in the opening five frames in Game 1 (a 24-4 football-final win for New York), eight runs in the first five of Game 2, and five in the opening five stanzas of Game 3. Philly isn’t great against lefties but is a much different team at the plate at home, averaging 2.85 runs in the first five innings as a host, compared to 2.05 on the road. While this game isn't in Citizens Bank Park, they should have the home-field edge in friendly Williamsport.
PREDICTION: First five innings total: Over 4.5 (+100)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Despite their record, the Mets have played divisional foes tough in 2018. Heading into this series with Philadelphia, New York was 5-3 versus the Phillies and opened the five-game set with a football-like beatdown in a 24-4 win in Game 1 of a double-header Thursday. The Mets have swung a big stick this month, batting .269 with an average of 5.72 runs on 9.55 hits per game in August. Given this pace, they could do the heavy lifting when it comes to the total number of hits Sunday night.
PREDICTION: Total hits: Over 15.5 (-125)
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FULL GAME TOTAL
Both teams have burned through their bullpens at times in this series, and that could have the relief corps feeling a little thin by Sunday night. The Phillies and Mets will be playing their fifth game in four days, and with neither starting pitcher known for going deep into outings – Vargas averages 4.08 innings per start/Pivetta goes 5.19 – so the bullpens could continue to work overtime. New York’s relievers are poor on solid rest, so this one could get interesting for totals bettors in the later innings. The Mets have allowed 2.05 runs over the final four innings this season while the Phillies have given up 16 total runs to N.Y. in the final four innings of the opening four games of this series.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-110)
FULL GAME SIDE
Pivetta has pitched well in recent outings, boasting a slim 1.50 ERA over his last three starts including a six-inning, one-run effort against the mighty bats of the Boston Red Sox last time out. However, he didn’t receive a win for that start, since the Phillies bullpen crapped the bed and allowed Boston to score in the eighth to take a 2-1 victory.
Given his current form and the fact he’s facing the Mets, you can see why this moneyline is pricy – opening around -180. But you’ve got to feel a little nervous laying the lumber on a guy that is coming off a 5.40 ERA in July and a 7.71 ERA in June. Which guy is going to show up? Risk less to win more, and find an alternative route for this game.
PREDICTION: Winning margin: Philadelphia by 1 (+325)
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