The Final Four are on the floor Saturday in the NCAA Tournament’s semifinals. As March Madness rolls into April, Covers checks in on the latest action and odds movement, with insights from Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point in Las Vegas.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2
Michigan State has been great to bettors all season, with the No. 2 ATS mark in the nation at 27-11 – and fellow semifinalist Virginia is No. 3. The Spartans (32-6 SU) dropped No. 1 seed Duke 68-67 in Sunday’s East Region final, cashing as 2.5-point underdogs.
Texas Tech has won and covered in all four of its NCAA Tourney tilts, part of a 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS spree. In last Saturday’s West Region final, the Red Raiders (30-6 SU, 19-16-1 ATS) toppled No. 1 seed Gonzaga 75-69 as 5-point pups.
“We’ve got pointspread play on the ‘dog. We opened 3, and they snapped that up pretty quick,” Andrews said of moving the Spartans to -2.5 Monday morning, and the number dipped to 2 this morning for an 8:49 p.m. ET tipoff. “We also have some moneyline on Michigan State, so we’re vulnerable if it lands Michigan State by 1 or 2. And then I have some sharp play on Michigan State -2. So I’m not sure where we’re gonna go from here.”
No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers – Open: -5.5: Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5
Virginia is the last No. 1 seed standing at the Big Dance, after surviving the South Region. In last Saturday’s regional final against No. 3 seed Purdue, the Cavaliers (33-3 SU, 25-11 ATS) drained a stunning buzzer-beater to force overtime on the way to an 80-75 victory as 4-point favorites.
Auburn has won 12 in a row (8-4 ATS) and, as a No. 5 seed, is the most surprising contestant left in the field. The Tigers (30-9 SU, 21-16-1 ATS) took care of all comers in the Midwest Region, including No. 2 seed Kentucky in a 77-71 win Sunday as 4.5-point underdogs.
“At the 6, we’re getting pretty even business,” Andrews said, literally minutes before a “pretty big bet” on the Cavaliers pushed the line to 6.5 for this 6:09 p.m. ET clash. But the Tigers have their share of supporters at the South Point. “There’s a lot of moneyline play on Auburn, and of course plenty of people on the chalk moneyline as well. I’m not really sure who we’ll need yet.”
Andrews said his shop is good in the futures book no matter who lifts the championship trophy, though he has a preference or two.
“We do OK with everybody, but we do best with Michigan State,” Andrews said. “Second-best for us would be Virginia.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
