We’ve arrived at the glorious first full Saturday of the college football season, with more than 50 games on the docket, including a prime-time Pac-12/SEC clash. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.
No. 13 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 16 Auburn Tigers – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5
Auburn gets to play much closer to home in this neutral-site meeting at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. The Tigers are coming off an 8-5 SU campaign (6-7 ATS), and after getting housed at Alabama 52-21 in the regular-season finale, they boatraced Purdue 63-14 as 3.5-point Liberty Bowl favorites.
Oregon got out of the gate 5-1 SU last season en route to a 9-4 SU finish (5-8 ATS). The Ducks ended the year with a slog of a game in the RedBox Bowl against Michigan State, but an early fourth-quarter touchdown gave them a 7-6 victory as 1-point underdogs.
The line for this 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff has been stuck on Auburn -3.5 for more than a week, with the upward movement not indicative of William Hill’s liability.
“We’re high on Oregon now, but that could change,” Bogdanovich said. “Right now, we definitely need Auburn, but we could end up needing Oregon. We’ve got decent handle, but 100 percent this game will be well-bet by kickoff.”
No. 25 Northwestern Wildcats at No. 23 Stanford Cardinal – Open: -6.5; Move: -6
In the only other Saturday game featuring ranked teams, Northwestern heads to the West Coast for a Big Ten/Pac-12 contest. The Wildcats reached the Big Ten title game last year, losing to Ohio State 45-24 as healthy 16.5-point neutral-site pups. But Northwestern rebounded in the Holiday Bowl, beating Utah 31-20 as 6.5-point ‘dogs to finish 9-5 SU (7-5-2 ATS).
Stanford won the last four games of the 2018-19 season to finish 9-4 SU (7-5-1 ATS). The Cardinal landed a berth in the Sun Bowl, where they edged Pittsburgh 14-13 but failed to cash as 3.5-point favorites.
Stanford opened -6.5 back in June, and the line was stuck there until Wednesday, when it tightened a notch to -6.
“We’re a little high on Northwestern, but not a lot of money in the pot yet,” Bogdanovich said of action on a 4 p.m. ET matchup.
Akron Zips at Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: -16; Move: -16.5; Move: -17; Move: -18
Illinois is coming off a 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS campaign, yet is drawing big dollars in Vegas for this noon ET nonconference contest, with four $55,000 spread bets reported on Lovie Smith’s troops. That includes one such wager at a William Hill US shop. The Fighting Illini will surely welcome a Mid-American Conference opponent, after losing six of their final seven games last season in the Big Ten.
Just like Illinois, Akron won its first two games last season, then notched only two more victories the rest of the way to finish 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS. The Zips lost their final five games, all by double digits. That might help explain why this line stretched 2 points over the past few days – along with those major wagers, of course, for a noon ET start.
“We’ve got that one big bet at -17, $55,000 to win $50,000,” Bogdanovich said. “We need the ‘dog.”
Boise State Broncos at Florida State Seminoles – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: OFF; Move: -6.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5
Florida State already had a quasi-home-field advantage when this game was scheduled to be played in Jacksonville, just a 2.5-hour drive from campus. But concerns about Hurricane Dorian forced officials to move the game, putting the Seminoles on their home turf in Tallahassee for a noon ET kickoff.
Oddsmakers adjusted accordingly, with the game first coming off the board – and in some shops, bets being refunded – before reposting with Florida State moving up 2 points to a 6.5-point chalk. But the ‘Noles are coming off a tough season, going 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS while failing to get bowl-eligible.
Boise State reached the Mountain West Conference title game last year, losing to Fresno State 19-16 in overtime laying 1.5 points at home. That left the Broncos with a 10-3 SU mark (7-5-1 ATS), and that’s where they finished, because their First Responder Bowl clash against Boston College was canceled by lightning 10 minutes into the game.
“We refunded after the move and put up a new game,” Bogdanovich said of WillHill’s approach to Thursday’s hurricane-related news. “The money is for Florida State so far, but I’m not so sure we’ll need the ‘dog. Florida State was no great shakes last year. We might see some money for Boise State.”
Duke Blue Devils at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -32; Move: -33; Move: -34; Move: -34.5; Move: -35; Move: -34.5; Move: -34; Move: -34.5; Move: -33.5
Perennial College Football Playoff participant Alabama is a typical monster favorite in its regular-season opener, a 3:30 p.m. ET neutral-site tilt at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Last season, the Crimson Tide were double-digit faves in every matchup except the CFP title game, in which they suffered their only loss, a 44-16 rout giving 5 points against Clemson. The Tide finished 14-1 SU (8-7 ATS).
Duke got out to a 4-0 SU start in 2018-19 (3-1 ATS), but leveled off by finishing the regular season 7-5 SU (6-6 ATS). That was still enough to get the Blue Devils into the Independence Bowl, where they finished with a flurry in a 56-27 torching of Temple as 3.5-point ‘dogs.
As always, money is rolling on the Tide, with more expected by kickoff.
“All the money’s for Alabama so far,” Bogdanovich said. “Definitely all public money.”
Other noteworthy games:
* Middle Tennessee State at No. 7 Michigan, 7:30 p.m. ET: “It’s like the Alabama game – all public, all Michigan,” Bogdanovich said. William Hill US opened the Wolverines -30.5, and the line was up to -35 by Friday night.
* Florida Atlantic at No. 5 Ohio State, noon ET: The Buckeyes opened -27, ticked down to 26.5 and back to 27 in late July, then went to 27.5 Sunday night. “Like the other big-name teams, the money is on Ohio State,” Bogdanovich said.
* Mississippi at Memphis, noon ET: The host Tigers opened -6 and were bet down to -5 Thursday night, but it’s been two-way action, Bogdanovich said. “We’re dead even to it, but not a lot on the game.”
* Fresno State at Southern California, 10:30 p.m. ET: The Trojans opened -10 back on June 8 and were bet up to 13.5 by mid-July, but the number hasn’t moved since. “We’re a little high on Southern Cal, but nothing major.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.