The Baltimore Ravens have surged to the head of the pack in the AFC on the heels of a franchise-record nine-game winning streak. Now, the Ravens can clinch a second straight AFC North title and inch closer to the No. 1 overall seed when they host the New York Jets on Thursday night. **video
The Jets have made it four wins in five games by squeaking past Miami 22-21 last week, but are still massive 14.5-point underdogs (the Jets competition has been not great) for their matchup in Baltimore. But will Lamar Jackson stay in the game long enough to cover that big number? From the opening kickoff to the final whistle, we break down the best ways to wager the odds for the Thursday nighter.
NEW YORK JETS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-14.5, 45)
QUICK HITTER
Jackson leads a Ravens offense that ranks second in total yards, first in rushing yards and first in points scored. And it should be no surprise that a player as flashy as Jackson likes to start games with a bang. The Ravens rank first in the NFL when it comes to lighting up the scoreboard early with their 8.4 first quarter points per game.
While the Ravens offense is getting all the headlines, their defense is only giving up 15.1 points per game during their nine-game winning streak and now ranks fourth in defensive DVOA. Now, the Baltimore faces a Jets offense that ranks dead last in offensive DVOA.
With the Jets ranking 27th in opponent first quarter scoring at 5.7 per contest, we like the Ravens to open the scoring with a touchdown.
Pick: First Score - Ravens TD (+115)
FIRST HALF BET
Jackson and running back Mark Ingram (887 yards rushing) are the keys for a top-ranked Ravens ground game that averages 200.9 yards and is on pace to break the single-season team rushing record set by the Patriots in 1978.
The Ravens will be up against a strong Jets rush defense that leads the league in opponent yards per attempt (3.0) and second in yards per game and second in DVOA. That said, the Ravens have already faced four teams in the Top-9 in rush defense DVOA: the 49ers, Rams, Patriots and Steelers. In those four games the Ravens averaged 202.8 rush yards per game.
So, suffice to say, we think the Ravens won’t have much trouble putting points on the board early on in this one. Particularly, considering the Jets allow the second most first-half points in the league when playing on the road this season.
Pick: Ravens First Half Team Total Over 16.5 (-120)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Jackson is running away with the NFL MVP award, literally. Jackson became the second quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards in Sunday's victory and needs 23 yards Thursday night to eclipse Michael Vick's (1,039 yards) single-season record. And he’ll have an opportunity to do so considering the Jets allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to rush for 65 yards on seven carriers last week.
However, there was some doubt about the availability of Jackson this week after he was limited in practice Tuesday, but the second-year quarterback told the media he felt "great" and will be on the field. But maybe the Ravens limit the hits on Jackson by letting him attack the Jets with his arm. Heck, he only leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes, including 16 in the last five games.
And the Jets secondary sure is vulnerable right now. The Jets pass defense ranks 22nd in passing DVOA and could be without three starters in the secondary, including star safety Jamal Adams. So, even if this is a game where the Ravens try to lighten the load on Jackson, he’ll be able to surpass touchdown passes total.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 TD Passes (-150)
FULL GAME TOTAL
While the Ravens are capable of scoring in bunches, the Jets offense is more aptly described as anemic. In fact, this is a matchup of the best offense vs. the worst. Ravens rank first in offensive DVOA, while the Jets rank dead last.
Sam Darnold has shown some flashes of potential this season, but it has mostly been against weak competition. Meanwhile, running back Le’Veon Bell is having more success bowling than he is running the football. But to be fair to Bell, the Jets offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. The offense is just a mess and with the way the Ravens defense is playing right now, we don’t think the Jets will be able to do enough to contribute to game going Over the number.
Additionally, don’t be surprised if the Ravens let their foot off the gas if they have this one wrapped up near the end of the first quarter. While Jackson says he’s feeling “great,” keeping him that way is paramount for the Ravens Super Bowl aspirations.
Pick: Under
FULL GAME SIDE
After covering the spread just once in the first six weeks, the Ravens have been a bounty for bettors going 6-1 against the spread over the last seven games. Now, this line is on the rise and for good reason. It’s going to take a remarkable performance for the Jets to keep up in this one. Plus, the Ravens have their eye on a division title and a first round bye. Even with a big number, I’ve told myself that I will no longer fade Jackson in prime time. Lay the points with the Ravens, sit back, and enjoy one of the most exciting players to ever play in the NFL.
Pick: Ravens -14.5
