Astros at Red Sox ALCS picks and predictions: Must-Win for Boston?

Oct 14, 2018 • 03:13 ET

The Boston Red Sox aren't necessarily in must-win territory Sunday night, but losing Game 2 of the American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros will certainly make getting to the World Series a whole lot tougher. Boston's hopes of evening the series at a game a piece rest on the shoulder of embattled left-hander David Price, who struggled in his previous postseason start against the Yankees. Houston, which prevailed 7-2 in Game 1, counter with right-hander – and team win machine – Gerrit Cole. **video

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (+110, 8)

QUICK-HITTER

Price's first-inning struggles were well-documented. The 33-year-old boasted a 4.20 first-inning ERA during the regular season, allowing five home runs over his 30 starts. And he didn't escape the first inning of his ALDS start against the Yankees unscathed, either, surrendering a towering home run to Aaron Judge on his 10th pitch of the game. The Astros have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, as they exhibited in Game 1 – and they should be able to put something on the board in the opening inning.

PREDICTION: Top 1st Run: Yes (+240)

FIVE INNINGS BET

It was a bit of a shaky season for Price, whose inconsistency baffled the Red Sox and infuriated fans. He allowed a whopping 19 home runs through the first four innings of his regular-season appearances, while posting an ERA of 4.00 or higher in three of those frames. Cole, on the other hand, surrendered just 20 long balls all season and limited opponents to a batting average below .200 in four of the first five innings of his 32 starts. We recommend taking the Astros to lead this one after five innings.

PREDICTION: Houston -1 five-inning line (+145)

SEE WHO THE PUBLIC IS BACKING IN ALCS GAME 2 PER OUR COVERS CONSENSUS

TEAM/PLAYER BET

The Boston bats couldn't do much of anything Saturday against Justin Verlander and a trio of relievers, who held the host Red Sox to just two runs on three hits. That's par for the course for the Astros, who posted the lowest ERA in the league and have allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of their previous 12 games. And Cole held Boston to two runs on five hits with eight strikeouts over six quality innings in their previous meeting. We lean toward the under on the Red Sox team run total.

PREDICTION: Boston under 3.5 runs (-115)

FULL-GAME SIDE

Bullpen use – both frequency and effectiveness – will be a major storyline throughout the postseason. And in that regard, the Astros come into Game 2 with a significant advantage. Not only did they use just three bullpen arms in Game 1, that trio held Boston without a run on just one hit over the final three innings. On the flip side, five Boston relievers allowed five total runs over five innings of work. Houston has the best bullpen in baseball – and that edge should carry the visitors to a comfortable Game 2 victory.

PREDICTION: Houston run line (+130)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

A late Houston flurry pushed Game 1 past the total, moving the Astros to 3-1 O/U in the postseason while making the Red Sox 3-2 O/U so far in the playoffs. The Red Sox have gone 12-3-1 O/U in their past 16 games overall and 7-1-2 O/U in their previous 10 home contests. The Astros, on the other hand, are 2-7 O/U in their past nine road games and have cashed the under in eight of their past 12 outings overall. A bullpen blow-up caused Saturday's over; look for better pitching to keep this one below the number.

PREDICTION: Under 8 (-115)

 

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