College Football Championship Week wraps up on Saturday night as the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes face off against the Wisconsin Badgers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. **video
The 12-0 Buckeyes are absolutely loaded with NFL caliber talent on both sides of the ball and have rolled through the regular season. They are massive favorites to take home the Big Ten Championship for the third year in a row.
The Badgers are coming off a 38-17 victory over a very good Minnesota Gophers squad, and are led by All-American running back Jonathan Taylor and a stout defense.
From the opening snap to the final whistle we break down the odds for this matchup with our best bets and predictions.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES VS WISCONSIN BADGERS (+15.5, 57)
QUICK HITTER
We're not gonna sugarcoat this betting breakdown for Wisconsin fans; the Buckeyes are big faves and for good reason. They have looked unbeatable for most of the year and dismantled the Badgers in their earlier meeting this season.
We definitely like Ohio State to score first in this contest but at -200 there isn't a whole lot of value in that wager. However, the Buckeyes have been touchdown machines crossing the goal line a whopping 82 times while having to settle for just eight field goals this year. The first score to be an OSU touchdown prop, pays out much better.
PICK: First Score Method (Six Way) Ohio State Touchdown (-120)
FIRST HALF BET
The Buckeyes have been dominant all season but they have been particularily incredible during the second quarter of games. They allow the fewest points in the country in that frame (1.9 ppg) while scoring the most (18.7 ppg). Their second-quarter scoring margin of plus-16.8 ppg is more than five points higher than second-best Clemson who has a margin of plus-11.6 ppg.
Expect Ohio State to seperate from Wisconsin in the second frame and take them on the 1H spread.
PICK: First Half Ohio State -8
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
OSU running back J.K. Dobbins ranks fourth in the country with 1,657 rushing yards and he shredded the Badgers for 163 yards on 20 carries earlier this season.
Dobbins' rushing yards total for this contest is set at 125.5, a number he has gone Over in seven of his last 11 games. In the four games he went Under that total the Buckeyes had built up a lead of at least 30 points by halftime and he was rested during the second half. Take the over.
PICK: J.K. Dobbins total rushing yards Over 125.5
FULL GAME TOTAL
Ohio State's defense has been nothing short of incredible, allowing just 11.8 points and 232.6 yards per game while sacking opposing quarterback 49 times. All those numbers rank among the Top-3 in the country.
The Buckeyes defense, led by Chase Young, absolutely destroyed the Badgers in the first meeting. They held them to just seven points and sacked quarterback Jack Coan five times, four times by Young.
However, Wisconsin has an excellent defense of their own. The Badgers stop-unit gives up 14.6 ppg (seventh-best in the country) and 278.8 ypg (sixth-best). And while they gave up 431 yards and 38 points to the Buckeyes on October 26, both those figures are significantly below OSU's season averages.
In fact, the Badgers limited Justin Fields and the Buckeyes to 167 passing yards, well below their average of 253.7. We're leaning towards the Under.
PICK: Under 57
FULL GAME SIDE
While 15.5 points is a lot to lay in a conference championship game, it's difficult not to see a massive gap in talent between these two teams especially with the Buckeyes hammering the Badgers 38-7 in Week 9.
Wisconsin's offense is built around running back Jonathan Taylor (1,761 rushing yards and 25 total TDs), but their ground game was absolutely shut down when these teams tangled. Taylor mustered just 52 yards rushing on 20 carries and their passing game may have been even less effective with Wisconsin QB Jack Coan throwing for just 108 yards.
There's no reason to think Wisconsin's offense will fare any better this time around. On the other side of the ball Ohio State's balanced offense will have the speed to move the ball against the Badgers, especially when you consider that they had little problem putting up points against Michigan and Penn State both of whom also have highly ranked defenses.
With the Buckeyes 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 5-1-1 ATS in the previous seven contests in the head-to-head, take them to win big and cover the spread.
PICK: Ohio State -15.5
