College football's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4

Sep 19, 2017 |

Surveying the weekly NCAAF schedule can be a daunting task for even seasoned bettors. So each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the college football slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule.

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+3, 44)

Florida's flaccid run game vs. Wildcats' wall of linemen

The Gators need to establish the run in this one after struggling on the ground in their first two games - and the Wildcats will be ready for them.

After a famously dreadful showing against the Wolverines - in which the Gators finished with just 11 rushing yards on a whopping 27 attempts - Florida bounced back nicely against Tennessee, stunning the visitors with a game-winning 63-yard Hail Mary touchdown with no time remaining. The Gators averaged 5.8 yards per carry in the victory - but if you remove Malik Davis's 74-yard scamper, that average drops all the way to 3.4 YPC.

Don't expect an average-boosting run like that this weekend. The Wildcats, who surrendered 5.3 YPC last season, are holding foes to a minuscule 1.9 YPC through three games - the best rate in the nation. Even more impressively, Kentucky hasn't allowed a rush longer than 11 yards all season.

TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-13, 67)

TCU's passing game vs. Cowboys' pass D

This could be the highest-scoring marquee game of the week, as the Horned Frogs and their 49.0 scoring average match up against a Cowboys team coming in with the third-highest point average in Division I (54.0).

Horned Frogs pass throwers Kenny Hill and Shawn Robinson have been sensationally accurate, connecting on nearly 75 percent of their passes through three games. But from a yardage perspective, the duo lags behind the rest of the Big 12; their 277.0 yards per game through the air ranks eighth in the 10-team conference. Hill's 8.7 yards per pass attempt ranks him 31st in the nation despite the elite-level accuracy.

Getting the ball downfield will be a challenge against a Cowboys secondary that has provided a solid compliment to the team's title-worthy offense. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.7 percent of their passes against Oklahoma State, which has allowed only two passing touchdowns through three games. 

Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers (+10, 52)

Wolverines' run D vs. Purdue's misleading rush success

On the surface, it looks like the Purdue Boilermakers have had a decent rush attack so far; at 4.5 yards per carry, Purdue ranks inside the top 50 among FBS teams. But if you take away running back Tario Butler's two longest runs - of 36 and 39 yards, respectively - the Boilermakers average just 3.9 YPC, which would rank outside the top 70 nationwide. And even that is an improvement over last year, when Purdue averaged 3.2 YPC against FBS opponents and 2.8 YPC overall.

Michigan has given up a few long runs this season, but its ground containment still ranks among the best in the nation. Only Utah, Kentucky and Auburn have allowed fewer than the 2.3 YPC the Wolverines have surrendered against FBS opponents; that includes a sensational effort against Air Force, in which Michigan limited the Falcons' vaunted triple option attack to 3.4 YPC. on 49 attempts.

Butler won't find much room to roam this weekend - and neither will the rest of Purdue's ball carriers.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View