One proposition bet can rev up a room like no other during March Madness: First to 15. A bet which can be extremely entertaining - and profitable - for bettors who like to go against the chalk and back underdogs. Our Vegas expert, Patrick Everson, goes behind the scenes in Sin City to tell you all about it. **video
It’s Friday night, March Madness opening weekend, packed house at Mandalay Bay sportsbook on the south end of the Las Vegas Strip.
North Carolina, the No. 1 seed in the South Region, goes off as a 25.5-point favorite against No. 16 seed Iona. Which is no surprise, because these No. 1 versus No. 16 games are almost always monumental mismatches. But at Mandalay Bay and a host of other MGM Resorts sportsbooks, one option on the wagering menu has bettors all over a David against one of college basketball’s Goliaths.
First to 15.
It’s a proposition bet that’s as simple as it sounds. Bettors wager on which team will get to 15 points first. The prop has become an MGM staple for the NCAA Tournament, and fans of the prop almost always wager on the underdog. The bigger the underdog, the more they like it.
Hence the massive roar in the room when, seven minutes into the game, Iona takes a 15-10 lead.
Scenes from Sin City: And Iona is First to 15 vs. North Carolina, sending bettors of that prop, at +400, into a frenzy at @MandalayBay sportsbook. Gotta love @MGMRaceSports’ #MarchMadness prop bet menu! @Covers pic.twitter.com/L1eUWqYijy
— Patrick Everson (@Covers_Vegas) March 23, 2019
“It’s like when you’re down to the last couple minutes of a game, and the spread is right on the number,” Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM sportsbooks, told Covers. “It’s got that type of excitement. You’ve only got a short amount of time to win or lose with this prop, and it’s always intense for whatever side you’ve got. A few minutes into the game, you can cash a ticket.
“We write a very large number of tickets on that prop. It’s the most popular prop bet during the NCAA Tournament, and even one of the best props, period. Probably the only one we have that we write more tickets to, is the first player to score in the Super Bowl.”
In the beginning...
So how did this prop come into being, and then develop into the most frenetic March Madness offering on the betting board? Interestingly enough, a very different sport with far less scoring was part of the equation.
“It was about five or six years ago,” Stoneback recalled of a conversation he had with Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM. “It was kind of like with hockey, we’d put up the first team to score a goal. But how boring is it to have the first to score a basket? So we extended it, and it was initially First to 20, but the favorite was often the first team to get there. So we shortened it to 15 to help the underdogs.”
It certainly did help, as the prop’s popularity rapidly grew at MGM’s books up and down Las Vegas Boulevard.
“It’s almost like baseball. Ninety feet is the perfect distance between bases. For First to 15, you wouldn’t believe how often one team is at 13 when they go to the first TV timeout or the game goes to a commercial,” Stoneback said from his home base at The Mirage. “In the back office here, you could have the TVS completely off, not know the score at all, and you can tell by the crowd reaction that one team is close to 15 points. Every missed or made basket, there’s a cheer.
“It’s an exciting bet, and you’ve almost always got a chance. It’s very rare that you get blown out on the First to 15. You’ve always got a shot.”
A Big Year for Underdogs
And bettors love taking that shot with underdogs of all sizes, many of whom are bursting with energy right out of the gate. Teams priced at +400 to +500 were making winners of big plus-money public bettors, even if those ‘dogs eventually ran out of steam and perhaps even got steamrolled by game’s end.
“They take the ‘dog 90 percent of the time, especially with big ‘dogs,” Stoneback said. “So that’s why the room just erupts when a big ‘dog wins.”
This past weekend, there were more eruptions than normal. In a bit of a surprise, three of the No. 1 seeds – aforementioned North Carolina, along with Duke and Virginia – got beat to 15 by No. 16 seeds. After North Dakota State cashed at +450 against Duke on Friday, Mirage sportsbook supervisor Scott Shelton sent a text that read, “Ear-piercing roars. We lost high five figures.”
A couple hours later, it happened again with the Iona-North Carolina game, in which the Gaels were +400 on the First to 15 prop. But the decision was much larger for MGM books, in fact twice as large, reaching into six figures.
Over the first four days of this year’s tourney, plenty more sizable ‘dogs got the First to 15 job done, which for the most part belied the end-of-game results.
“It’s been such a chalky tournament, as far as top seeds winning. If you took those results and applied them to the First to 15, you’d think we’d be killing it,” Stoneback said. “But so many ‘dogs, and big ‘dogs at that, were the first team to get to 15. No. 1 seeds were losing on that prop.”
That’s part of the risk of offering such a prop on every NCAA Tournament game, so credit MGM books for putting it on the board. And MGM is not alone. CG Technology, which operates sportsbooks at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, among several others, also put that prop into play starting last year.
Early Energy
Jason Simbal, vice president of risk for CG, said the suggestion to add it came from Brian Benowitz, senior vice president of casino operations at The Cosmopolitan. Benowitz previously worked for MGM Resorts and saw firsthand how First to 15 ramped up the room early in NCAA Tourney games.
“We put it up, and it was extremely popular,” Simbal said, while noting CG adjusted the prop this year. “We didn’t want to put up a carbon copy of MGM, so we went with First to 20. That takes about 10 minutes, half of the first half. It was equally as popular. The change didn’t really impact the betting.”
In some instances, that shift led to a change in the winner.
“I was kind of tracking the games, watching, and often times, it was a different outcome than the team to get to 15 first,” Simbal said, citing a first-round game pitting a No. 13 seed vs. a No. 4 seed. “Northeastern got to 15 first, but Kansas got to 20 first. Obviously, it’s harder for the ‘dogs to cover First to 20 than First to 15. And we need the favorite in every single one of these games”
Scenes from Sin City: Another First to 15 Points underdog cashes with Wofford. And there was much rejoicing at @MandalayBay sportsbook! @Covers pic.twitter.com/QLtB73h8Gz
— Patrick Everson (@Covers_Vegas) March 23, 2019
Simbal noted that No. 7 Wofford vs. No. 2 Kentucky on Saturday nicked CG books the most, with a low-scoring first half in which the Terriers took a 21-15 lead with 5:06 remaining. Win or lose, though, Simbal likes how the First to 20 prop raises the room temperature early in every game.
“It’s funny, because you hear random cheers usually around the middle of the first half, and you look up at the TV and see a team just got to 20 points,” he said. “It gets pretty loud. It’s just something fun they can bet on and get the energy in the room up.”
Expanding to the Sweet 16 at the SuperBook
John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate, said his shop previously offered First to 15 on the Final Four and this year is expanding it to begin with the Sweet 16 games on Thursday and Friday.
“We’ve had it for the Final Four for as long as I can recall,” Murray said, noting it wasn’t widely bet on in that window. “Maybe this jump-starts it a little more. I can see there being a decent amount of handle to it. And just in general, we’re trying to add more props. We’re always looking for new things to add to our menu and be competitive.
“And we’re always looking to add things that are easy to understand. First to 15, that’s easy to understand.”
Mirroring Stoneback and Simbal’s sentiments, Murray said it’s entertaining to have the room energized, and with this prop, that happens relatively early in each game.
“Crowd engagement is always good, and that’s one prop people like to follow,” Murray said. “People love to bet on things that end quickly, and the house likes it too. There’s more churn, it gives people the ability to bet back quickly. So it’s a win-win, but it’s one-way money, so there’s no reason to go too high with the prices. You know where the money is gonna be coming.”
That would be on the underdog, and again, the bigger the better for the flood of public bettors in town for March Madness. While it was a losing proposition for MGM books on opening weekend, Stoneback said it’s a prop everybody has fun with, and his shops will certainly continue to offer it to all those seeking that speedy – and often plus-money – payout.
“If I were on their side of the counter, I’d be betting it too. I’d be one of those people screaming for Iona,” Stoneback said with a laugh,” You don’t have to win the game. You just have to win the first few minutes.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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