If the PGA Championship were a fancy restaurant, here’s the call you might have heard from the maitre d’ by the time golfers cleared out of Bethpage Black on Friday evening:
“Koepka, party of one, your table is waiting.”
That’s because for the second straight day, Brooks Koepka blistered the testy course, following Thursday’s 7-under 63 with a 5-under 65 for a 12-under 128 total. He’s seven strokes clear of the rest of the field, with Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott both at 5-under 135.
Koepka began the tournament as the 10/1 co-third choice at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas. After Thursday’s opening round, he made a huge leap to the +125 favorite, with no one else shorter than 10/1. Now, with Moving Day looming, the defending PGA champ is a monster -400 chalk, and Dustin Johnson – who’s at 4-under 136 – is a mile back as the 16/1 second choice.
“We didn’t even have to list odds for many golfers, which is rare for a major after just two days,” SuperBook manager Derek Wilkinson told Covers. “We’ve got 16 golfers listed, and the rest are in the field. It’s a pretty small list because he’s dominating so much. There are so many guys who don’t have a realistic shot, so we just put them in the field. You don’t see that often in a tournament like this.”
Koepka’s surge isn’t necessarily welcome at The SuperBook. He’s No. 1 in tickets written to win the tournament, leading to mid-five-figure liability – even after accounting for Tiger Woods’ surprising failure to make the cut.
Woods, coming off his Masters victory last month, presented the largest liability of any golfer, into six figures. But he followed his opening 72 with a 73 for a 5-over 145 total, one stroke beyond the cutline.
“We dodged a bullet with Tiger Woods, and that’s great for us,” Wilkinson said. “But we’re still gonna lose mid-five figures on Koepka.”
Wilkinson was struck not just by Koepka’s odds, but by the huge-yet-necessary chasm between his price and Johnson’s price just halfway through the tournament.
“That gap is unusual, too. Sometimes you might see that going into the final round of a tournament, but not this early,” Wilkinson said, while noting The SuperBook wouldn’t mind seeing DJ get rolling this weekend. “He’s good for us. Not a huge win, but we wouldn’t mind seeing him. It’s definitely better than Koepka. We at least turn a profit.”
Spieth shot a solid 4-under 66 Friday, yet went from six strokes back to seven behind. He’s the 20/1 third choice heading into Saturday, followed by Scott at 25/1. Justin Rose, alone in ninth at 3-under 137, was next at 40/1, followed by Rickie Fowler (138) at 60/1.
“We would do very well on Rose, upper five figures,” Wilkinson said. “Scott would be solid for us, too. We wouldn’t mind seeing him win.”
Nor would The SuperBook mind the highly unlikely outcome of lesser knowns Matt Wallace, Luke List or Kelly Kraft winning. Those three joined Johnson and Daniel Berger in a five-way tie for fourth at 136.
“We’d do very well on Wallace, almost six figures. We have nine bets on him, for a little over $100,” Wilkinson said, while noting one of those wagers has a nice payout. “We took a $40 bet at 200/1, so that could pay out $8,000.”
List would represent a near-six-figure win, as well. However, that’s Fantasyland thinking with Koepka dominating, as The SuperBook is almost resigned to its fate at this point.
“We’re not in a position where we can take back money on other players, because Koepka is so far ahead. This is becoming one of those times where we just have to accept it,” Wilkinson said. “Who would’ve thought that nobody would be close on the second day?”
That said, Woods bowing out was certainly key, and not just for PGA Championship futures. The Superbook took a $10,000 wager at 10/1 odds – to win $100,000 – that Woods would win all four majors this year. So, as Carl Spackler would say, they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.
“We’re happy about Woods,” Wilkinson said. “If we had to choose between Woods and Koepka winning, we’ll take Koepka any day. Woods would’ve been really, really bad for us.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
