Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Covers’ Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.
As for Week 1, this is an unusual slate since the spreads and totals come out when the schedule is announced in the spring. The 2019 NFL Week 1 odds hit the board back in mid-April and have taken action ever since. However, books estimate as much as 95 percent of their total handle (money taken on the games) will come in the three days leading up to kickoff, so there's plenty of time for significant line moves.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6
When the news broke that Andrew Luck was retiring from football, the Indianapolis Colts went from +3 to as high as +8.5 at some sportsbook for their Week 1 road game against the Los Angeles Chargers. As bettors reacted to that shift, the line eventually settled at Chargers -7 and even dropped to -6 days before the opener.
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Honestly, I was surprised the spread on the Bolts dipped under the key number of a touchdown, but sharp money is pushing this in favor of the Colts. If you do like Los Angeles, getting the host under a TD is a gift as I do project the spread climbing in the days before kickoff Sunday.
As public money comes in, those players will be reacting to a Luck-less Indianapolis team on the road. That opinion will add a point or maybe even two to this spread before closing Sunday afternoon. I could see it close Chargers -7.5 or even -8 – a dead number for a strange game to handicap. If you like L.A., bang it now before joe public puffs up this spread.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6
AFC heavyweights collide when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. This line opened Patriots -6 and has bounced around a bit, with a few -6.5 spreads popping up and a handful of books dealing -5.5 as well.
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While we don’t know how quick Tom Brady will gel with some of his new receivers, we do know the public money is going to be riding New England in this opener – even with Pittsburgh among the most popular teams in the NFL.
Not only will there be plenty of plays on the favorite in this primetime game, but most parlays still alive come Sunday night will be riding on the defending Super Bowl champs. Due to this, those bettors siding with the Steelers may want to wait it out until Sunday night and see if they can get Pittsburgh +6.5 or maybe even +7. This is one of those games for which you should have multiple accounts and the ability to shop around.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO - OVER 46.5
The football-starved masses get their first bite of NFL regular season action when the NFC North takes center stage on Thursday Night Football. The total for Packers at Bears opened at 46 and has ticked a half-point higher to 46.5, with early money on the Over.
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I’m expecting more of the same in the hours before kickoff, driving the total upwards and shifting the vig on the Over and Under. If you look back at past NFL season openers, they’ve seen an uptick in Over play on gameday until right before kickoff, capped by last-second Under money from the wiseguys.
If you do like the Over Thursday, now might be the best time to pull the trigger. The Bears offense has gotten a ton of hype this season (Mitch Trubisky for MVP, anyone?) and Aaron Rodgers playing in a new system should get people excited. For me, it's all about the Chicago defense and a Packers stop unit that is building on a solid 2018 effort, but if you're banking on fireworks, bet the Over now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: HOUSTON AT NEW ORLEANS – UNDER 53.5
Another primetime game with a tempting total is Houston at New Orleans Monday night. This is the highest number on the Week 1 board, and for good reason. The Texans and Saints have a surplus of talents in the passing game and boast two defenses that gave up chunks of yardage through the air last season.
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On top of that perception, the Monday Night Football crowd loves to bet “favorite and Over” each week, which means this sky-high total could climb even further. And, much like the Sunday Night Football patterns, once that number goes up, the sharp guys buy back the Under just before kickoff.
If you’re looking to the Under, be warned: tall totals in Week 1 have led to Over results in recent seasons. Totals of 50 or more points in Week 1 have gone 5-2 Over/Under since the 2014 season. That trend makes it even more important to milk that late line movement for every half point you can get.
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