The Texas Longhorns face the LSU Tigers in the biggest game of the college football season so far, and this marquee matchup could have major ramifications on the College Football Playoff picture. From the first quarter to the last we break down the odds for this battle with our best bets and predictions. **video
QUICK HITTER
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow made a statement in Week 1, completing 23 of 27 passes for 278 yards and 5 TDS in just the first half against Georgia Southern. The new spread offense LSU is using seems tailor-made for the Tigers depth at wideout and could pose early problems for a Texas defense that is missing eight starters from last season. Take LSU to draw first blood.
PICK: First to Score - LSU (-140)
FIRST HALF BET
LSU's defense has a habit of starting off a bit shaky on the road. In 2018 they allowed just 5.8 points per game in the first half at home but gave up 12 ppg on the road. Longhorns junior QB Sam Ehlinger is an absolute unit who threw for 3,292 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 16 more scores on the ground last season.
Keep in mind that even though the Longhorns lost four games last season they only trailed entering the fourth quarter in one of them. Ehlinger and the Longhorns will come out fired up at home and should be able to keep things close for the first 30 minutes.
PICK: First Half Spread Texas +3.5 (-115)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
We already mentioned that Texas has a lot of new faces on D but even with the veterans they had last year they allowed 25.9 ppg and gave up over 30 points in six games.
The Tigers return all of their top receiving targets from 2018 and will look to spread the ball like they did last week when Burrow completed at least two passes to eight different receivers.
While you never want to put too much weight on one game - especially against a team that like Georgia Southern plays outside a Power Five conference - Burrow is not a one game wonder. In the last four games of the 2018 season he completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,166 yards and 10 TDs against one interception. Lean Over on LSU's team total.
PICK: LSU team total - Over 32 (-110)
FULL GAME TOTAL
Each team has an excellent QB and a defense with question marks. As much as I like the young talent on the Longhorns stop unit, their lack of experience will mean growing pains especially at the beginning of the year. LSU returns six starters but will miss Devin White and Greedy Williams who were two of the best defensive players in the country last year.
As Ehlinger and Texas proved in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia in January they can put up points against a tough SEC defense.
This total opened on Monday at 52.5 and while I hate how high it's moved since them I'm still betting the Over.
PICK: Over 57 (-110)
FULL GAME SIDE
While LSU lost several key defensive starters from last year they still have plenty of talent and always seem to be able to reload on that side of the ball. Their defensive line is deep and talented while their secondary has preseason All-Americans in Grant Delpitt and Kristian Fulton.
It looks like LSU finally has a competent QB under center while Texas could struggle on the defensive side of the ball. After a slew of injuries Keaontay Ingram is the Longhorns only scholarship running back left in their backfield so the burden of carrying Texas's offense will fall almost entirely on Ehlinger.
LSU's defense is good enough to slow down Texas (at least a little bit) and will get physical with the Longhorns star QB. The Longhorns on the other hand won't be able to limit the Tigers spread attack.
Texas might be able to keep things close early but LSU's fast pace will help them pull away in the second half. This line has also moved since Monday when books had LSU -4.5 but I'm still backing the Tigers to win and cover.
PICK: LSU -6.5 (-115)
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