The blockbuster Anthony Davis traded vaulted the Los Angeles Lakers to the top of the futures odds for the 2020 NBA Championship, which in turn caused books to adjust win totals for the upcoming season. But bettors seem less convinced of a meteoric Lakers improvement in the wins column. Patrick Everson looks at the early action and adjustments to the NBA season win totals.
As the Los Angeles Lakers worked on an agreement to acquire star forward Anthony Davis from the New Orleans Pelicans, oddsmakers were diligently adjusting NBA championship futures odds for the 2019-20 season. By the time the agreement went public on June 15, the Lakers had become the betting favorite for next season’s title chase. **video
However, that deal – expected to be finalized July 6 – didn’t just impact the championship futures market. PointsBet USA was first to market with NBA season win totals for next season, dropping those a day ahead of the Davis trade news, and there’s been significant movement there as well.
PointsBet opened the Lakers’ win total at 50.5, but when the Davis deal was reported, the New Jersey-based online sportsbook pulled that offering off the board. A short time later, PointsBet reposted the Lakers at 56.5 wins. And interestingly, bettors haven’t been quite as keen on Los Angeles in that market.
“The Lakers Under got absolutely throttled at the reposted 56.5, adjusted to 55.5, and it continued to get steamed, resulting in a subsequent move to 54.5,” PointsBet head of content Matt Chaprales told Covers. “The Lakers settled at 53.5 and are a sizable liability. Half of our total season win handle is on them, and 99 percent of that action is to the Under. The heaviest is at 56.5 and 55.5, so there’s some big-time arbitrage potential for those bettors.”
So it’s been a bit of a betting dichotomy at PointsBet, which upon news of the trade decided to keep the Lakers at +700 to win the title for a period of about a day, rather than immediately moving them to the favorite.
“We took that windfall of Under money (on the win total), but also took significant futures money, both at our 24-hour 7/1 price freeze and the +400 repost,” Chaprales said, noting the Lakers are now +350 to win the title. “Reading the tea leaves, it’s clear that people think the Lakers are the title favorites, but they also know LeBron is prioritizing the marathon over the sprint.”
Los Angeles isn’t alone in seeing Under cash. The New York Knicks are getting no love from bettors, who are banking on another rough season.
“The Knicks Under has been hammered, as well, with an even more drastic move there,” Chaprales said, alluding to the opening number 34.5 dipping to 30.5 by June 15 and now sitting at 28.5. “It’s less volume, but an even bigger middle opportunity that’s opened up.”
Chaprales inferred much of the aforementioned win totals action is sharp play, and other teams have seen some professional money, as well. Most notably, the Houston Rockets opened at 53.5 wins and are down to 51.5, with rumors swirling that all may not be well between star players James Harden and Chris Paul. Plus, the Rockets are still working on a deal to keep coach Mike D’Antoni.
The Boston Celtics, who could lose Kyrie Irving and Al Horford to free agency, have seen their win total drop from 49.5 to 45.5. The Chicago Bulls aren’t expected to be good, but Chaprales said sharp action pushed their win total from 27.5 to 28.5, and Over money continues to come in at 28.5. New Orleans, which just added No. 1 overall draft pick Zion Williamson, has seen its total tick up a game to 35.5.
Golden State, which won three titles in four years before its injury-riddled team succumbed to Toronto in the recently completed NBA Finals, opened at 47.5. Chaprales said PointsBet hasn’t moved off that number, but is seeing wiseguy play on the Under. The Warriors will be without Kevin Durant (Achilles) all of next season, and they might not have Klay Thompson (ACL) either.
Thursday’s NBA Draft led to an uptick in one team’s win total, with Chaprales noting the Atlanta Hawks’ number moved a full game, from 32.5 to 33.5.
“We had to respect them getting two top-10, NBA-ready guys,” he said of the Hawks landing Virginia forward De’Andre Hunter (in an expected trade with the Pelicans) and Duke forward Cam Reddish. “That was purely a trader-instigated adjustment. No action to report.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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