For the past decade, possession football has been the model that everyone has wanted to copy, following in the footsteps of Spain and Barcelona.
That seems to have gone out of the window at this World Cup. Our friends at Football Whispers look at why, and how the final eight teams use the ball when they have it.
It was inevitable that “the death of possession football” would come at some point. It took off as a style because it was effective, used to pull opposition defences out of shape while also being a form of defending in itself. The opponent can’t score if they don’t have the ball.
Teams began to work out how better to defend against the system, and how best to attack. The old possession football usually packed the centre of the pitch, keeping players close together to have as many passing options open to them as possible. This, though, made them vulnerable to counter-attacks starting out wide and cutting inside.
With these tactical improvements, the benefits of “possession football” seem to have gone, or at least diminished considerably.
Make sure to check out our World Cup Odds page for the latest odds on all of the quarterfinal games.
Much has been made of the high-possession share of Spain, Germany, and Argentina, who all had disappointing tournaments, but it’s worth noting that these high-possession percentages will partly be a function of the poor results.
Teams who are happy with the score as it is, tend to sit back and let the other team have the ball. With each of these teams struggling to score against lesser opposition, for the most part, the ineffective possession will have gone in a vicious cycle, boosting the stats with each passing impotent minute.
France against Uruguay will be an interesting match. The Uruguayans are the only other quarterfinalist to have a possession share below 50 percent while France, as they showed against Argentina, are a far better side when they’re able to hit the opposition on the break.
Uruguay are a particularly good defensive side, having only conceded one goal all tournament. If they manage the game in such a way that allows them to be the counter-attacking team, France could find themselves in trouble - despite the fact that the South American side are +175 underdogs in the World Cup betting odds.
There are two quarterfinalists who are true “smash and grab” counter-attacking teams: Sweden and Russia both have average possession percentages in the mid-30s.
Neither are favourites to make it to the semifinals, with Sweden priced at +200 against England while Russia are at +137 for their game against Croatia. This fact might suit them though, meaning that they’ll likely be more able to play their counter-attacking game.
Russia will need to be careful that they don’t become undone defensively though – they are the team who have conceded the most goals still left in the competition (five).
Belgium have tended to dominate possession in their games, averaging around 56 percent, but they showed in their Round-of-16 tie against Japan both their danger from and susceptibility to counter-attacks.
They’ll have to hope that they can contain Brazil, or that the five-time world champions will be preoccupied by Belgium’s own attacking threat. These are both big-scoring sides: Belgium have averaged three per game in the tournament and 4.3 per game in qualifying, while Brazil’s figures are at 1.75 and 2.27 per game.
No surprise that both teams to score is at -125, but the well of goals sometimes runs dry at the most unlikely of times, and the match seeing no goals is priced at +800.
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