Scoring is down the past few weeks in the NFL after hitting some historic highs, and we see a lot of small totals set for Week 17. Is this a specific trend for this season or is there something more going on in the final week of the schedule?
Looking at totals and Over/Unders for 2018 we see a clear upward trend in totals as scoring soared. Up until Week 12, the average total had increased or stayed steady every week except for one, rising from just below 45 points in Week 1 to a high of 48.7 in Week 11. Scoring has taken a nose dive since then, with Over/Unders dropping accordingly. Week 17 gives us the lowest average Over/Under of the year at 43.6 points. **video
Let’s look back to 2000 and see if the trend holds or is just a one-off reaction to reduced scoring.
Except for a weird blip in Week 11, there appears to be a pretty clear trend, with scoring increasing early in the season and then drifting back downward come December – potentially due to weather affecting more games. Interestingly, while the Over/Under does seem to track those changes, it’s relatively constant, peaking at 43.2 points and never dipping below 42.
Side note: scoring was much lower for much of the 2000s, rerunning the above analysis starting from 2009 or even 2013 yields very similar results but with the lines shifted upward a point or two.
So, while the general trend in 2018 seems to follow what we’ve seen in years past, the size of the shift is dramatically bigger. This season, the average Over/Under has dropped more than five points since Week 11 and 3.6 points since last week. Again, while scoring does seem to drop in general in Week 17 – with teams resting starters and playing more reserves - the effect tends to be between 0-1.5 points depending on where you start tracking from.
There are a number of attractive looking Overs this week, let’s look at a couple.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans (Over/Under 43.5)
These teams sputtered to a 12-9 score two weeks ago in a game that saw an Over/Under of 50.5. Drew Brees & Co. showed that their offense is different back home, putting up 31 against Pittsburgh Week 16. The Panthers will look to Kyle Allen at QB but as long as Christian McCaffrey continues to pile up the touches Carolina can move the ball (almost 450 yards of offense last week despite only scoring 10 points).
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City (Over/Under 52.5)
The Chiefs need a win and have shown there isn’t a defense around that can stop them as they’ve broken 25 points every game this season. Oakland’s defense managed to stop Case Keenum but still sits near the bottom in nearly every defensive metric. Look for the Chiefs to do most of the work here while the “resurgent” Raiders offense does enough to push this one Over.
