With the conclusion of the 2019 NBA Draft, sportsbooks have set their early betting odds for the 2019-2020 Rookie of the Year.
It's no surprise that first pick overall Zion Williamson of the New Orleans Pelicans has the best odds, but does he offer better value than Ja Morant who will immediately be handed the keys to the Grizzlies offense? We break down the odds with the three betting favorites, an underdog and a live long shot.
THE FAVORITES
Zion Williamson, New Orleans -200
Mount Zion is the overwhelming favorite and for good reason; he's the No. 1 selection in the draft, is going to an ideal situation in New Orleans and already has a body suited for the NBA game. With the trade of Anthony Davis the Pelicans will surely build around their new big man, and "big" might be an understatement. At his listed weight of 285 lbs, Zion would be the second-heaviest player in the league after Boban Marjanovic who is just five pounds heavier despite being about eight inches taller. Zion is built like an NFL offensive tackle so he shouldn't have much trouble overpowering most NBA players just like he abused college players in the paint this year.
With veteran point guard JRue Holiday (7.7 assists per game in 2018-2019) and Lonzo Ball (5.4 apg) handling the rock, Zion should be fed the ball even more than at Duke where he averaged 22.6 points on just 13.2 shots per game. And of the last 10 winners of the NBA Rookie of the Year award, six of them were first overall selections. With all that said, at -200 Zion doesn't offer the greatest value because he likely won't have the ball in his hands as much as the guys that got drafted just after him and (as Warriors fans will be sure to remind you) injuries can strike at any time.
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Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies +400
The youth movement is completely underway in Memphis and Morant will lead the charge. With Mike Conley being traded away the Grizz don't even have a No. 1 scoring option at the moment. Is it Jonas Valunciunas who averaged 19.9 ppg in fewer than 20 games for Memphis at the end of the season? Likely not, given how guard and perimeter oriented the NBA is at the moment. Morant should immediately become Memphis' top playmaker.
Morant may struggle early in the season because of the huge jump in competition from the Ohio Valley Conference to the NBA Western Conference, but I see an upward trajectory much like Trae Young and Collin Sexton last season. In the second half of the yearhe should have a big improvement in efficiency to go along with high scoring and assist numbers. At +400, Morant offers terrific value.
R.J. Barrett, New York Knicks +450
Barrett is an assertive player who had no problem leading the Blue Devils in shots last year despite sharing the court with Zion. But his success will depend on a few other factors in New York. The Knicks were gearing up for some big moves in free agency but after the injury to Kevin Durant and rumors that Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker and Jimmy Butler are all looking elsewhere, New York could find themselves having to improve from within.
That could be a double-edged sword for Barret's ROY chances. If he becomes the man as a rookie he should get plenty of usage, but without a top player around him (or a PG to get him the ball) he could really struggle with effiency from the field much like Knicks first rounder Kevin Knox did last year. Don't forget that Barrett shot just 30.8 percent from three-point range and 66.5 percent from the charity stripe in college. Barrett will need to improve his shot selection, jumper and ability to drive with his right hand if he wants to be a volume scorer at the next level.
VALUE UNDERDOG
Coby White, Chicago Bulls +2000
I love this kid and not just for his genuine outpouring of affection on draft day when he found out that his UNC teammate Cameron Johnson had been drafted. White is a silky-smooth guard with handles and an offensive skillset that's fairly advanced for a 19-year-old. He's also a better fit for the NBA than the NCAA, as a combo-guard that prefers a faster game than the methodical pace that most teams play in college.
His landing spot in Chicago should give him plenty of opportunity to shine; wing Otto Porter is more of a three and D guy, Lauri Markannen doesn't need the ball in his hands to be succesful and last year's first rounder Wendell Carter is more of a high-energy rebounder and defender at this stage of his career. White could man the point from day one and share ball-handling duties with Zach Lavine who will take pressure off him. At +2000 White is worth taking a flier on.
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LIVE LONG SHOT
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets +3000
Remember this guy? Porter was considered an elite talent coming out of high school, ranking first in his class according to Rivals and second (behind 2018 first pick overall Deandre Ayton) on ESPN and Scout. In the opening game of his freshman season, Porter suffered a lower back injury that required surgery and missed almost the entire season for Missouri. He came back to play limited minutes in two games near the end of the season and then tumbled to the end of the 2018 lottery before being drafted by Denver.
Shortly after the draft he had a second back surgery and missed all of last season but could finally be healthy for the fall. Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly has stated that Porter is in the gym twice a day and has been fully cleared to play for a "long time". If Porter can rekindle the skillset that had people compare him to Kevin Durant less than two years ago, he will be a huge addition for a Nuggets team that could use another impact scorer next to Nikola Jokic in the frontcourt.
ODDS TO WIN 2020 NBA ROOKIE OF THE YEAR, FROM POINTSBET (50:1 ODDS OR BETTER)
Zion Williamson -200
Ja Morant +400
R.J. Barrett +450
Darius Garland +1000
De'Andre Hunter +1600
Jarrett Culver +2000
Coby White +2000
Michael Porter Jr. +3000
Cameron Reddish +3500
Rui Hachimura +4000
PJ Washington +5000
Goga Bitadze +5000
Cameron Johnson +5000
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