The pointspread is very much an organic entity, from birth at the oddsmaking level to death at kickoff. And in between, bookmakers and bettors go back and forth, moving the spread and the vig attached, trying to come out on top when the final whistle blows.
The Red River Rivalry – between Texas and Oklahoma - this past Saturday provided an interesting opportunity to dive deep into the ebb and flow of the sports betting industry at its core, and follow the lifecycle of a pointspread.
Covers spent the entire week leading up to the game getting inside the numbers for Oklahoma vs. Texas, with insights from Las Vegas sportsbook operator Circa Sports and sports data analyst/bettor Matthew Davidow.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6
11 a.m. PT
Circa Sports opened its doors for business on June 1. Among its many aggressive moves the past few months: being first to market with weekly college football opening lines, even ahead of the offshore sportsbooks. Week 7 is no exception, as director Matt Metcalf and oddsmaker Matt Lindeman post Oklahoma as 10.5-point favorites for this neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
“Lindeman made the line -11, and I made it -10, so we split the difference at -10.5,” Metcalf tells Covers, shortly after the line went up. “Traditionally, the underdog role is where Tom Herman’s Texas teams have excelled, while not usually being that great as a favorite. But the way Oklahoma has handled its competition with ease this year, I think that the -10.5 line works.
“As of right now, we’ve taken nine bets on Texas and one bet on Oklahoma - none of those being limit bets ($2,000 on opening lines). I could see this line drifting down a little as the ‘Tom Herman as an underdog’ narrative gets played up again. But I wouldn’t expect it to dip too far, as there will be plenty of Oklahoma money to be found come the weekend.”
Adds Lindeman, “This is a fascinating matchup from an oddsmaking perspective, because from a raw power-rankings standpoint, I make Oklahoma roughly a two-touchdown favorite in this game. But due to the nature of this series and Texas’ strong performance as a dog under Tom Herman, I shaded the number down significantly.
“Oklahoma has a different power ranking when playing weaker competition, due to its high-scoring nature and ability to name its score on most teams. When the Sooners face a team with similar talent, their inflated power ranking typically has to be adjusted.”
Oklahoma, behind Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts, is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, coming off a 45-20 victory as a 32-point favorite at Kansas. The Sooners fell behind 7-0 early, then scored the next 42 points. Texas is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS), with the lone loss a respectable 45-38 Week 2 home setback against Louisiana State. The Longhorns posted a 42-31 win as 10.5-point favorites at West Virginia in Week 6.
For Metcalf, the opening line of 10.5 represents a sizable opinion shift over the past few weeks.
“Going into the year, I think most oddsmakers, myself included, were thinking that this would be the year that Texas closed the gap officially,” Metcalf says. “I would’ve had this line Oklahoma -5 coming into the season, and I actually believe I bet Texas +7 in a Games of the Year bet, but I’m too afraid to go back and look!
“We’ve seen Oklahoma has actually played to a higher number than last year, and Texas has remained at about the same level it finished up last season.”
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6
1:20 p.m. PT
Davidow doesn’t bet off first impressions. He usually puts a great deal of time and energy into analyzing the odds and each team before determining how to proceed on a game. But that doesn’t mean first impressions don’t cross his mind.
In this case, he finds the opening line interesting.
“I thought it would be a little higher, something closer to 13,” Davidow says. “If I was right, they’d probably be taking bets on the favorite at 10.5, and they’re not.”
Indeed, as Metcalf notes, the early ticket count favors Texas as a double-digit underdog.
“I’m guessing I’m gonna like Oklahoma,” Davidow continues, noting his strong belief in Sooners defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, hired away from Ohio State in January. “I like him. I think that’s a big coaching upgrade.”
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6
1:29 p.m. PT
Literally minutes after Covers’ first conversation with Davidow, the line ticks to Oklahoma -10, a bit further away from where he thought it would land. The move comes about as the global market begins to get its Week 7 lines on the board.
“We didn’t see any bets of significance for the first two hours,” Lindeman says. “When an offshore book opened 9.5, we took a bet from a chaser at +10.5. I wouldn’t necessarily label this type of bet as sharp, but it’s a bet that needs to be moved off of, given we we’re off market.”
The move of course gets Davidow’s attention, but he hasn’t even begun his deep analytical dive, so he’s not inclined to wager.
“Interesting. It’s a good thing for me if I want Oklahoma, which I think I will,” he says. “With few places having a line up, it doesn’t take much money to move a line.”
MONDAY, OCTOBER 7
9:09 a.m. PT
The allowable amount for a limit bet adjusts as games draw closer to kickoff. For example, at Circa books, college sides have a $2,000 limit and totals $1,000 off the Sunday openers. On Tuesday, the side limit goes to $5,000, and on Friday/Saturday or game day, the limits go to $10,000 and $2,000 respectively.
And early in the week, sharp bets are most definitely going to move the needle. Monday morning brings a $2,000 limit play on Oklahoma -10.
“We went right to 11, as we respect that bet and realize the game should be higher from a raw power-rankings perspective,” Lindeman says.
Any other thoughts at this point?
“Well, I made it 11 initially, that’s where it’s sitting. So I’ll go with that,” Lindeman says.
The bulk of Davidow’s analysis takes place Tuesday and Wednesday, so while the line inches toward his initial thoughts – and away from a better number – he’s not budging until his work is done.
“If I was so confident that it would go up, I’d have put my money down. I’d have punched in my -10 bet,” Davidow says. “My process is to get all the information, do all the analysis, then execute the bet. I’m still in that process. That -13 was my original guess, before I had any information. Once other people put up a number and let people wager on it, that line becomes way more valuable than whatever I think it should be.”
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 10
12:29 p.m. PT
Davidow wraps up his analysis, and the results are interesting. Contrary to his initial inkling, he actually makes the game Oklahoma -10. He again notes that he’s very high on Oklahoma defensive coordinator Grinch, adding that the Sooners play really well at the line of scrimmage and among the front seven. However, they have problems in the secondary.
“Texas has similar types of issues with its secondary, but the Longhorns are getting a couple of secondary guys back, and Texas has an extremely underrated quarterback,” Davidow says, alluding to Sam Ehlinger. “Whenever he comes out, he’s a sure-fire first-round draft pick.
“I love Oklahoma, I picked Oklahoma to win the national championship. I’ve bet the Sooners a couple of times at 10/1. The odds come playoff time will be a lot closer. But 11 points is a lot on the road, even in a neutral-site game.”
At midweek, Davidow thinks an Oklahoma wager might not be in the cards.
“Oklahoma is projected to win the game 76-77 percent of the time. But it’s football, a game played with an oblong bouncy ball,” Davidow says.
Plus, as we all know, winning isn’t the same as covering. But that doesn’t mean Davidow is entirely off the game. If the Sooners get bet up to 12.5 or 13, he indicates he might just jump on Texas. Further, along with what his analysis turned up for the line, it also leads him to set the total at 73. That’s interesting, because Circa Sports opened it at 73.5 – right in his neighborhood – but was already up to 76.5.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11
9:30 a.m. PT
This line is not going up. Rather, the move to 11 gets Texas bettors back in the fray.
“We took a limit bet on Texas +11,” Lindeman says, noting a $5,000 wager, as the increased midweek limit is in play. “With the market split between 10.5 and 11, and most of our liability on Texas, we decided to tick it down to 10.5, so that we’re on the lower side of the market.”
In the meantime, Davidow comes back with some fine-tuning of his analysis.
“Texas is going to have to pass in this game, due both to Oklahoma’s defensive strategy and its weakness in the secondary, and the lack of Texas running back depth,” he says. “This will create more possessions and the probability of slightly more Texas interceptions. My new numbers are 11.5 and 76. This is without market factors.”
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 12
8:29 p.m. PT
Oklahoma is still sitting at -10.5 at Circa Sports, a little more than 12 hours before kickoff. But even though Davidow’s reassessment put the Sooners at -11.5, he’s not biting on the lower number. He says there isn’t enough benefit to offset the juice. Plus, there’s an injury issue potentially at play.
“Oklahoma’s two starting tackles are now questionable, which may affect my number,” he says.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13
8:55 a.m. PT
With kickoff five minutes away, Circa is still at Oklahoma -10.5, but the books’ position has flipped, thanks to a $20,000 wager on the Sooners earlier in the morning. The line closes at 11 thanks in part to that bet, and the total closes at 78.
“We needed the Sooners initially, but now will be rooting for Texas. It’s not one of our bigger decisions, but we need it for roughly half a limit bet,” Lindeman says, meaning just a few thousand dollars. “Not surprisingly, the total is being driven up, from our opener of 73.5 to 78 now. We need the Under for one of our bigger decisions.”
It’s not surprising, as such a public game inevitably draws public action, and the public loves to bet the Over. Also not surprising: Circa is on the same side as Davidow, who opts not to bet the side, but takes Under 78.5 and in fact made the wager with Circa.
“I thought 78.5 was a little too high, based on my numbers, so I bet,” Davidow says.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13
12:46 p.m. PT
Oklahoma remains undefeated with a 34-27 victory, but Texas and more important those Texas bettors get the cover. Sooners backers are certainly not quite as festive, as just a few minutes earlier, Oklahoma took a 34-20 lead on a short Hurts touchdown run, only to leave the Longhorns with more than four minutes to go through the backdoor.
Which they do, scoring a touchdown with 1:49 remaining to account for the final score. Lindeman notes that since this game didn’t represent a big decision, he’s got his eyes dialed in on more important outcomes behind the counter.
In fact, with still a plenty busy Saturday ahead of him and a Sunday in which he has to post the Week 8 opening lines for college and handle a typically crazy NFL slate, he can’t take a breath to review this outcome until Sunday afternoon.
Likewise, Davidow is up to his eyeballs the rest of the weekend with his work for DeckPrism - a live odds company whose bread and butter is football weekends. So the immediate analysis will have to wait.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
6 p.m. PT
Once the late Sunday kickoffs go in the NFL, Lindeman weighs in on the outcome. The book loses a little on Texas covering the number, but the larger need on the Under is met. And he’s the type of person who likes to review his work of the past week.
“Going through and making power-ranking adjustments Saturday night, it looks like Texas had no business getting there,” Lindeman says. “Oklahoma dominated the boxscore and blew the cover late by giving up a backdoor TD. I actually didn’t end up making an adjustment to either team, as I felt my number – Oklahoma -11 – ended up being about right.”
Meanwhile, despite the line appearing to mesh well with Davidow’s opinion, he looks quite prescient for not pulling the trigger on an Oklahoma pointspread bet. And equally as prescient for taking a pop on the Under, after the total closes five points higher than where his analysis put it.
Despite a 48-point second half, a 13-point first half all but cinches Davidow’s winning ticket. It certainly helps that Sooners QB Hurts has two red-zone turnovers in the first half, but bettors must take the breaks where they can get them.
“There you go,” Davidow says Monday evening. “Obviously, I didn’t handicap those turnovers. There’s a ton of luck with the way the ball bounces.”
Still, echoing Lindeman’s sentiments, Davidow remains stunned that Oklahoma doesn’t cover the number. The Sooners rack up 511 total yards, including 286 on the ground, while yielding just 310.
“I was surprised how good Oklahoma did offensively with the statistics. Looking deeper into the numbers, Oklahoma should’ve won by a lot more points,” Davidow says. “If these two teams play in the Big 12 title game, I think that line will be higher. Which is interesting, because Texas did of course cover.”
Should that rematch indeed take place, Davidow is ready to go.
“If they play again, I’m sure I’d bet Oklahoma,” he says, before offering a nugget to file away for later, with potential College Football Playoff matchups. “Oklahoma will give Alabama or Clemson a game.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
