The first game on Sunday's WNBA slate features a showdown between the veteran-laden Phoenix Mercury and the up-and-coming Atlanta Dream. Both teams are looking to rebound after recent losses but read on for our free WNBA betting picks and predictions to see why we’re favoring Phoenix on the road in Mercury vs Dream.
Mercury vs Dream odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mercury vs Dream predictions
Predictions made on 5/28/2022 at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Mercury vs Dream info
• Location: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
• Date: Sunday, May 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Mercury vs Dream betting preview
Key injuries
Mercury: Britney Griner C (Out), Kia Nurse G (Out), Sophie Cunningham G (Out), Shey Peddy G (Out).
Dream: Monique Billings F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mercury are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Dream.
Mercury vs Dream picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Phoenix Mercury are off to a slow 2-5 start this WNBA season following a narrow loss to the also not particularly impressive Los Angeles Sparks. The Dream, meanwhile, are treading water at 4-3 but suffered a blowout 70-50 loss on Tuesday to the Washington Mystics.
The central story behind the Mercury’s struggles is obviously the ongoing detainment of Britney Griner by Russian authorities, and it would be foolhardy to expect them to easily replace her All-Star-caliber production. And yet, their 2-5 start is not perhaps fully representative of the quality of team the Mercury can be, even in Griner's absence.
This game has all the trappings of an Old West shootout. Both the Mercury and the Dream are 3-point focused teams of the new school, and both feature elite shot-making star talent.
However, the Mercury have been cruel victims of bad shooting variance this season. In terms of volume, Phoenix is the third-highest 3-point shooting team in the WNBA, and with Tina Charles acting as a stretch five, they frequently field lineups with shooting at every position. But for a typically offensively gifted group, the shots just haven’t been falling. Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles, and Diamond DeShields are their highest-volume shooters from deep and are all shooting below — or close to below — not just their career averages, but the W league average from deep.
Without Britney Griner, the Mercury’s interior finishing, free throws, and rebounds all significantly decline, meaning 3-point shooting is a massive bellwether for their success. Looking closer at their 2-5 record, three losses have come at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces, who have the look of an early-season juggernaut and might well be the runaway best team in the W this season.
The Dream, in turn, have been riding the hot start of No.1-overall pick Rhyne Howard, who has come out guns blazing to begin her pro career. Howard is shooting 42.9% on seven attempts per game from three and averaging 17.6 points per game to lead the Dream in scoring.
Howard is already flashing advanced stepbacks, turnarounds, and a strong pull-up game. The diversity of her outside shooting has been remarkable for a first-year player. But in the Dream's previous loss 20-point loss to the Mystics, Howard went 0-for-9, including 0-for-4 from deep, and it exposed just how singularly dependent Atlanta’s offense is on Howard's night-to-night greatness already.
The Mercury are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Even without Griner, Skylar Diggins-Smith and this Phoenix core have a more distributed scoring attack that should allow them to outshoot the Dream on the road.
Prediction: Mercury -1.0 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
Because both teams like to bomb away from outside, the total has been set at a healthy 163.5 even though the Dream scored just 50 points in their last outing.
This total seems to be based largely on Phoenix having the worst defensive team in the WNBA so far this season with a 112.4 rating. But so much of that has been the result of an unsustainable 3-point shooting disparity.
Opposing teams have shot north of 40% against the Mercury from outside, and that’s mostly been at the hands of their three losses to the aforementioned dominant Aces. Opponent 3-point percentage is one of the least sustainable defensive numbers in professional basketball, so the Mercury defense will, in all likelihood, look closer to average once that levels out. Further, when a team’s shots start to fall, it also gives them a chance to set their defense.
Both teams rarely get to the foul line, with star players like Diana Taurasi and Rhyne Howard almost exclusively focused on scoring from the perimeter. If either side gets tight, it’s difficult to see just how they’ll manufacture quality offense.
Prediction: Under 163.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
Early records, as well as offensive and defensive ratings, can often be deceiving. The Mercury are not the worst defensive team in the WNBA, nor are they as offensively inept from beyond the arc as they’ve appeared to be through seven games.
Mercury opponents are shooting 40.4% from deep to Phoenix’s 33.7%, a nearly 7.0% difference, while Dream opponents are shooting a paltry 31.9%. Both the Mercury and Dream allow 23.7 attempts from 3-point range per game, tied for third-most in the WNBA. So, their defensive process from beyond the arc is closely mirrored, but they’ve received wildly different results.
That kind of gap never survives a full season, and the Mercury's shooting talent on the floor gives them multiple opportunities for positive regression. Their team's free throw percentage of 80.8% is just one further indicator that this team has players with solid mechanics.
Howard has been a beast, but the Dream’s 4-3 record is also buoyed by two wins over the inexperienced Indiana Fever. When the Dream have gone toe-to-toe with the WNBA’s elites like the Aces or the Mystics with Elena Delle Donne in the lineup, they’ve struggled even more than the Mercury have, despite their overall hot shooting.
The Dream offense is painfully one-note and they lead the league in unassisted field goal makes. That’s impressive, but it’s also a tough thing to sustain. Being so reliant on a rookie for offense — even one as transcendent as Howard — has its pitfalls, and that’s one of the reasons I like the Mercury to cover on the road.
Pick: Mercury -1.0 (-110 at Betway)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s WNBA Mercury vs. Dream predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our WNBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
