Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means is scheduled for three rounds at welterweight tonight, June 18, at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas for UFC Fight Night. After seeing his momentum snuffed at middleweight, Holland is on the verge of a resurgence with streaking veteran Means hoping to derail him.
Holland is a big UFC odds favorite as he hopes to establish himself as a premier welterweight, coming in at -265. Means, winner of his last three, comes in as a +215 underdog.
Here are our UFC picks and predictions for Means vs. Holland on June 18.
Means vs Holland fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Means vs Holland method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Tim Means | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +500 | +260 |
| To win by Points | +460 | +155 |
| To win by Submission | +1,800 | +700 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 16, 2022.
Means vs Holland picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Means vs Holland betting preview
It wasn’t that long ago that we were fawning over Holland’s potential as a rising star at middleweight, but that perception changed overnight after he got mugged by Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori.
A trip down the scales saw Holland deliver a dominant performance, knocking Alex Oliveria out in the second round, and if he can continue to make the weight, Holland could be a nightmare at welterweight.
Boasting an incredible 81-inch reach, fight-stopping power in his right hand, and actively improving his ground game, Holland is starting to regain the confidence he might have lost in previous bouts.
Not only is Holland younger, longer, and taller than Means, but he’s better defensively and will carry a significant size advantage when proceedings get underway.
It does sound like we’re singing the same song with Holland, and Means is the kind of veteran opponent he should blitz, just like Brunson was. Though older and with 45 fights in his career, Means is a durable opponent who comes to fight and has some momentum of his own winning his last three fights by decision.
An active fighter who smothers his foes and forces them to the cage, Means lands an impressive 5.06 strikes per minute and has 19 knockouts in 32 wins.
A big part of Means’ game is closing the distance with strikes and unloading various shots while he presses up against the cage. His chin is strong, and his conditioning is surprisingly improving, but he’s been getting visibly hurt more frequently than at any point in his career.
This is going to be a striking battle between two fighters who do not see too many of their fights go the distance. It’ll just be a question of youth being served or an old veteran providing a rude awakening to a fighter seemingly poised for big things.
Means vs Holland tale of the tape
| Tim Means | Kevin Holland | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 171 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 81 inches |
| 32-12-1 | Record | 22-7 |
Means vs Holland UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Holland ML (-280)
Holland’s return to welterweight can get white-hot if he manhandles Means like he did Oliveira. Means is a busy fighter, but he isn’t awkward or mobile enough to overcome the reach disadvantage.
If they do tie-up, Holland will use his size and agility to take Means down. All Holland needs for that to happen is staying in the center of the octagon and catching Means with a right hand he’ll probably walk into.
Means’ swarming style is going to leave him open for those kinds of shots he doesn’t want to take early on. His defense, in both strikes and on the ground, were never the best, which makes him vulnerable in too many areas to like his chances to spring an upset.
Holland should quickly establish striking superiority due to his length but can make things even worse for Means should he force him to the ground.
Holland simply has more ways to win, so we’re rolling with him.
Prediction: Kevin Holland moneyline (-280 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Holland in Round 1 (+250)
Means matches up well to Holland’s strengths, and it’s a tall order stylistically to see Means bypass Holland’s physical advantages.
This is the kind of fight older veterans don’t want to find themselves in, even if they remain serviceable. With Means getting hit more often and his endurance beginning to fade, Holland is primed to score a stoppage.
Holland looks physically stronger at welterweight, and if he can buckle or drop Means with those long strikes of his, he’ll close the distance to either batter him in the stand-up or take him down to the mat.
Once Means gets hurt, Holland will finish him.
The writing is on the wall here for Holland to turn in an impressive performance, and that’s why we like Holland to explode early, and leave Means down and out in one round or less.
Pick: Kevin Holland to win in Round 1 (+250 at DraftKings)
