Yankees vs Tigers Picks and Predictions: Severino Shuts Down Detroit

After winning in truly ugly fashion yesterday, the New York Yankees will look to make it two in a row against the Detroit Tigers tonight.

The Yankees squeezed out a victory despite a horrific outing from ace Gerrit Cole, but our free MLB betting picks and predictions are expecting a better effort from Luis Severino.

Read our Yankees vs. Tigers preview for Wednesday, April 20, to see why Sevy will dominate — and why you should back New York as a lofty road favorite.

Yankees vs Tigers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line opened at New York -150, but has since grown to see the Yankees sit anywhere from -165 to -175, as of 11:30 a.m. The total has remained at the opening number of 7.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Tigers predictions

• Prediction: Yankees ML (-165)
• Prediction: Under 7.5 (-103)
• Best bet: Severino Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-165)

Picks made on 4/20/2022 at 11:19 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Yankees vs Tigers game info

• Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
• Date: Wednesday, April 20, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Detroit, YES

Yankees vs Tigers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Luis Severino (1-0, 2.25 ERA): After missing the majority of the last three seasons, Severino has looked solid in his first two outings of 2022, giving up two runs and seven hits, with 11 strikeouts, across eight innings. He most recently threw five shutout innings against the Blue Jays, inducing 14 swinging strikes as he evenly mixed his 98 mph fastball with his changeup, slider, and cutter.

Eduardo Rodriguez (0-1, 5.87 ERA): It has not been the start Rodriguez has wanted in Detroit, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.826 WHIP through two outings. After posting a 4.74 ERA with Boston last year (and finishing sixth in Cy Young voting in 2019), ERod has a hard-hit rate of 53.8% so far (well above the MLB average of 38.7%) and a fly-ball percentage (42.3%) that's nearly double the 22.9% he posted last season. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: Ben Rortvedt C (Out).
Tigers: Javier Baez SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Detroit. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Tigers.

Yankees vs Tigers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

If you watched last night's game... we're sorry.

We're sorry you had to endure 3 hours and 59 minutes of sloppy baseball where the Yankees scored two of their four runs on a dropped pop-up, the Tigers scored on a bases-loaded walk and a sacrifice fly (as Gerrit Cole threw 65 pitches and lasted just 1 2-3 innings), Detroit used three different pitchers just to get the first six outs... and this masterpiece of a pitch:

Rony García, Sinker. pic.twitter.com/fYDcdNawQu

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2022

Sadly — for both clubs — this has somewhat summed up their seasons thus far. The Yankees are 6-5 but have been less than inspiring, sitting 19th in the Majors in batting average (.224) and just 26th with 3.09 in runs per game. Detroit is somehow even worse at a flat three runs per contest, an unsightly .196 batting average (28th), and just six total home runs so far — adding up to a 4-6 record.

So, what can we expect for an encore following yesterday's 4-2 Yankees win (well, more like a Tigers loss)? More of the same baseball... just hopefully shorter.

Luis Severino has been impressive in his first two starts, as he climbs back from years of injuries and arm problems. He's logged 11 strikeouts (against two walks) in eight innings against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, most recently throwing five shutout innings (with two hits and six Ks) against Toronto.

While his fastball has looked great, sitting at an average velocity of 97.6 mph, he showed off his entire arsenal against the Jays: throwing the four-seamer just 40% of the time, he mixed in his slider, cutter, and changeup to great effect as he consistently pounded the low, outside corner for strikes.

If the .196 team batting average wasn't enough indication, Detroit has been a poor hitting team coming out of the gates. It ranks just 22nd in the league in weighted runs above average per 100 fastballs faced, 24th against changeups, and 26th against sliders (per FanGraphs), Severino's three primary pitches.

After the New York starter is finished, the Tigers will then have to deal with a Yankees bullpen that is second in MLB in both ERA and WAR, and held Detroit to three hits and zero runs across 7 1-3 innings last night — without using Jonathan Loaisiga or Chad Green.

That gives the Yankees a massive pitching edge compared to the Tigers trotting out Eduardo Rodriguez, who has given up 10 runs (albeit only five earned) on nine hits and five walks in 7 2-3 total innings, followed by a bullpen that has the third-lowest K/9 rate in the league.

I don't particularly like the lofty price on New York but with a huge pitching advantage and two bad offenses, it's the way we're leaning tonight.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-165 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

We discussed it at some length above, but here's the recap: both of these offenses have been putrid in the first three weeks of the season.

Cole just delivered one of his worst starts ever and the Tigers managed a whopping four hits and two runs, while the Yankees faced eight different Tigers pitchers (in a very mediocre bullpen)... and turned that into a vastly superior six hits and four runs — with the clubs combining for 24 strikeouts.

This marks three straight games with four or fewer hits (and two or fewer runs) for Detroit, coinciding with Javier Baez — one of three Tigers regulars hitting above .207 — going on the 10-day IL with a thumb injury. The Tigers also have just one game so far this year scoring more than five runs or logging double-digit hits.

Not to be outdone, the Yankees have finished with less than 10 hits in eight of 11 games this season and have been punched out at least 10 times in four of their last five contests, against some elite starters such as Jordan Lyles and Bruce Zimmermann.

Unsurprisingly, the Under is 9-2 in Yankee games this season (and a perfect 8-0 in games not started by Cole), while Detroit has cashed the Under in seven of 10 outings in 2022, including six of its last seven.

The weather forecast is expected to be in the low-50s at first pitch, with the wind blowing in at around 11 mph — which won't help the offenses playing inside the spacious Comerica Park, which had a park factor ranking of 29th (among 34 stadiums used in 2021) for runs scored.

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-103 at BetRivers)

Best bet

After giving up just two earned runs through two outings against solid offenses in Boston and Toronto, we should expect Severino to have another solid start against the light-hitting Tigers.

While opponents are hitting .333 off his fastball, plus the two runs he allowed came via a home run hit off the pitch, as mentioned above, Detroit has struggled against four-seamers — and has done even worse against changeups and sliders, which Severino has thrown 46% of the time so far this season.

The 28-year-old righty has also been sharp with his command, issuing just two walks to the 35 batters he's faced. Without many extra free baserunners, banking on a team that has the second-fewest hits and homers in the league to manufacture runs is a tall ask.

Pick: Luis Severino Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-165 at BetMGM)

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