The greatest rivalry in sports writes its latest chapter when the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox open a four-game set at Fenway Park tonight.
The Yankees have been the best team in baseball this season. Full stop. They have a 14-game lead on the Red Sox in the American League East and Aaron Judge is the front-runner in MLB MVP odds. But the BoSox have been playing excellent ball since the start of June.
Can Boston show New York the AL Pennant won’t be that easy and take the opener of this series as underdogs? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Thursday, July 7.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
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With ace Gerrit Cole on the mound, the Yankees opened this AL East matchup as sizeable -170 road favorites and that’s roughly where the line remains as of Thursday morning. The total hit the board at 8.5 and the early money has come in on the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
Picks made on 7/7/2022 at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Thursday, July 7, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, NESN
Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (7-2, 2.99 ERA): Cole has gotten in a groove. The right-hander has allowed just four earned runs, is limiting opponents to a .146 batting average, and has racked up 33 strikeouts in 26 1-3 innings over his last four starts.
Josh Winckowski (3-2, 3.12 ERA): The rookie right-hander is making just his sixth career start and the numbers so far have been solid. He has pitched at least five innings and allowed a total of five earned runs over his last four starts.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2-2 in the Yankees' last nine games when facing a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
In typical New York fashion, people started to wonder if something was wrong with the Yankees after the slightest of bumps in the road in the form of a two-game losing streak. This, despite the fact that New York entered last night’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 58-23 record and a 14-game lead in the division.
Then, of course, they went out and thumped the Buccos 16-0 and now open this big four-game set at Fenway by handing the ball to Gerrit Cole. And it appears that the four-time All-Star has found his good stuff heading into this series.
Cole has thrown four straight quality starts, lowering his expected ERA to 2.98 and his opponent expected batting average to .214, with three of those starts coming against the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays. That said, the Red Sox won’t be an easy out.
Boston is an impressive 22-10 since the start of June, thanks to an offense that ranks fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and 11th in wRC+ over that stretch.
Cole has also had his issues with the BoSox recently. He's made six starts against the Red Sox dating back to last season, and has been tagged for a 5.79 ERA in those outings.
The Red Sox counter Cole with rookie Josh Winckowski, who has solid, but this Yankees lineup is far and away the best he has stared across at. The Yanks rank second in OPS and first in home runs when facing right-handers.
New York also has an edge in bullpens, with its relievers ranking first in ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average.
All that said, this is a tough game to handicap. The Yankees have the edge in starters and their juggernaut offense gets to dig in against an inexperienced starter. But the Red Sox are playing well and have done a good job against Cole in the past.
I think this number is close to spot-on and this is one of those situations where I might follow the money. If the Yankees stay around -170, they look like the team to back but if Boston gets above +150 it might be worth a shot on the underdogs. At -170 we’ll lean towards the Yanks here.
Prediction: Yankees (-170 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
While the side feels like a bit of a toss-up when it comes to the value, you can feel a little more confident when betting the total. Particularly the Over. And here’s why.
Let’s start with Cole. Yes, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past several seasons and can look unhittable at times. But if he isn’t locating his fastball well, it can get hit hard. And that's been a problem with the Red Sox, who have hit eight home runs off him in his last six starts. On top of that, the Red Sox have averaged 4.63 runs per game since June 1.
Meanwhile, what else can be said about the Yankees offense that hasn’t been said already? Now, they’ll go against a rookie getting his first taste of this historic rivalry.
And while Winckowski has done a decent job of working deep into ball games, he isn’t striking out many batters or missing many barrels. And it has come against lesser competition that hasn’t been able to take advantage of his mistakes. He won’t be that lucky against the Yanks, who lead the MLB in scoring at 5.15 runs per game.
As noted, the early money is coming in on the Over, so I would jump on the 8.5 while it’s still available.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-120 at Caesars)
Best bet
Speaking of Winckowski’s first experience in this storied rivalry, we can look deeper for a profitable angle. While Winckowski has done a decent job of not giving hitters free passes to this point, that could change tonight.
He's allowed at least one walk in each of his five starts, and should have a couple in this one. For starters, the Yankees have the highest walk rate of any team in the MLB when facing right-handers. Second, the atmosphere of this rivalry has a different feeling to it, and the level of intensity will be high. Look for that pressure to lead to at least a couple of base-on balls for the Yanks.
Pick: Josh Winckowski Over 1.5 walks given (-130)
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