Astros vs Mariners Picks and Predictions: Another Encouraging Kirby Outing

We have the series finale of this AL West intradivisional series with the Houston Astros hosting the Seattle Mariners. 

Houston won two of the first three games of this series and will look to finish strong with a win. On the flip side, Seattle is rolling with rookie right-hander George Kirby on the mound in an effort to tie up the series before a set with the Yankees.

Can the Mariners rookie tame the electric Astros offense or will Houston continue its success with a 3-1 series victory? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions below.

Astros vs Mariners odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros were unveiled as consensus favorites of –120 on Saturday morning and were immediately bet up to –140 until some buyback occurred with the price settling at –135. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.5 and remains at that number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Astros vs Mariners predictions

• Prediction: Mariners ML (+120)
• Prediction: Under 8.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Kirby Over 3.5 Ks (-146)

Picks made on 7/31/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Astros vs Mariners game info

• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Sunday, July 31, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T Sportsnet, Root Sports

Astros vs Mariners betting preview

Starting pitchers

George Kirby (2-3, 3.50 ERA): While Kirby’s surface-level stats are certainly “take it or leave it”, a deeper dive into his performances this season shows that he's better than these figures indicate. One start, in particular, is hampering Kirby’s numbers, which was his June 27 start against the Orioles. Everyone in this league has a bad day, and that outing could not have gone worse for Kirby. Losing virtually all of his command after the first inning, Kirby was tossing meatballs as he allowed four homers, seven runs, and nine hits through four innings pitched. However, every other outing has been solid. Over his last three starts, Kirby has failed to allow a homer and boasts a 1.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Kirby has reached at least four strikeouts in each of those three starts.

Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 4.25 ERA): This outing could be a big wake-up call for Odorizzi. Over his last three games, Odorizzi is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA. While that number is not particularly horrible, all three of those starts were against the Athletics. It certainly is a change of pace going against a much stronger Seattle offense that ranks higher than Oakland in BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA over the last two months.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

George Kirby has reached at least four strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts (80%). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners

Astros vs Mariners picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Entering this contest in great form, Seattle has won 18 of its last 23 games (78%). I expect this trend to continue as right-handed rookie Kirby is slated to take the mound for Seattle.

As mentioned earlier, Kirby had probably one of the worst performances of his life on June 27 as he surrendered seven runs on seven hits through four innings pitched against a mediocre Orioles offense. That being said, his ability to rebound since that outing has been very telling.

For a young pitcher in this league, the first time you get rocked like that could certainly be a confidence shaker. However, Kirby’s composure since that outing – against a couple of better offenses – really speaks to the mental fortitude of the young right-hander.

Over the three starts since that outing, Kirby boasts a 1.65 ERA and WHIP. Facing some explosive firepower in this outing, Kirby will undoubtedly be tested.

I believe he will live up to this test, but even if he is not, Seattle’s strong bullpen should be able to hold it down. Since June 1, Seattle’s relief pitching ranks sixth in the league in ERA, second in BA, fifth in SLG, and second in wOBA.

This bullpen is anchored by Erik Swanson and Paul Sewald, both of whom should be available if needed once again in this game as they only threw 16 and 14 pitches, respectively. Houston has never faced Kirby before, and it may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.

Prediction: Mariners moneyline (+120 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Seattle’s pitching staff is more than capable of winning this game at plus money, even though they are going against a powerful Houston lineup. That being said, Houston’s pitching staff could also keep this game low-scoring.

Coming off three straight games against a weaker Oakland offense (see starting pitcher section), I believe that Odorizzi will struggle in this outing. Over his last 10 starts, Odorizzi is 4-3 with a 4.22 ERA.

Many of those starts were against poor offenses, squaring off against Oakland three times, Kansas City, Detroit, and the Angels. Despite this weak schedule, Odorizzi’s splits are still fade-worthy.

So why will Houston’s pitching staff keep this game low-scoring? The answer is their bullpen. Since June 1, Houston’s relief pitching ranks fifth in ERA, third in BA, second in SLG, third in wOBA, and second in hard-hit percentage.

Since starter Framber Valdez went seven innings for Houston yesterday, the entire bullpen should be available in this game. I believe a sharp play in this game would be taking the game Under while taking the Seattle team total Over for the first five innings, presenting a nice middle opportunity.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

With all that being said, I am not confident enough to take Seattle’s moneyline without its better hitter, Julio Rodriguez, who is expected to miss this game after taking a pitch off his wrist in the ninth inning of Saturday’s game. I am also not confident enough to take the Under as Jake Odorizzi is not good and could get rocked early.

The one play I am most confident in is for Seattle’s starter to have yet another good outing. Reaching at least four strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts (80%), Kirby should be able to hit the mark once again.

There is some juice we must lay here, but I believe it is worth it. Kirby boasts a 22.7 K% this season and is squaring off a Houston lineup that features a few strikeout-prone hitters, including Martin Maldonado (31.3 K%), Jeremy Pena (24.7%), and Jake Meyers (33.3%).

George Kirby Prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-146)

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