Padres vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions: Staying Under at Busch Stadium

The St. Louis Cardinals are getting hot. They've won four of five and look to complete a sweep of the San Diego Padres today.

The Cards won the first two games behind solid pitching, holding the hard-hitting Padres to three runs or fewer in each. St. Louis enters today's tilt with a 28-21 record, just three games back in the NL Central.

May was a bit of a sluggish month for the Padres, having dealt with various injuries, but they're still 30-19 and just three games back in the division.

Read our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Cardinals on Wednesday, June 1.

Padres vs Cardinals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds for this meeting were released last night. The Padres opened up as muted favorites at around -115. Since then, they've taken some money at a few books, going as high as -130, with the Cardinals returning at +110.

The total opened up at 8, saw sharp money, and quickly went to 8.5 across the board.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Cardinals predictions

• Prediction: Padres ML (-125)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-105)
• Best bet: F5 Under 4.5 (-140)

Picks made on 6/1/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Padres vs Cardinals game info

• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Wednesday, June 1, 2022
• First pitch: 1:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports Midwest

Padres vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (4-2, 3.76 ERA): It's nothing extraordinary, but this is one of the better starts Darvish has had in a while, at least when you isolate May. He gave nine earned runs over 26 innings and dropped his ERA from April by over a full run. Over his last two starts, he's pitched a combined 13 innings and gave up just two runs. He isn't going to dominate games as he could sometimes in 2020, but it feels like he's hit a groove as of late. Developing a sinker as a putaway pitch and a cutter with more movement has done wonders for him. 

Dakota Hudson (3-2, 3.22 ERA): To say Hudson has been lucky to start the season would be a gross understatement. He has one of the most significant discrepancies of actual ERA vs. expected ERA in baseball. The difference between him and others that may be in a similar spot is that Hudson has shown waves of near-dominant pitching at various times in his career.

Hudson has always been terrific at inducing ground-balls, and that's why he's been so successful no matter how many advanced metrics say he shouldn't be. Hudson is producing an eye-opening 58.5% of hits into ground-balls for his career. That's well above the league average of 45%. In May, Hudson went 25 innings, giving up ten earned runs.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Matt Beaty RF (Out), Fernado Tatis Jr SS (Out), Mike Clevinger SP (Out).
Cardinals: Tyler O'Neill RF (Out), Jack Flaherty SP (Out), Jordan Hicks P (Out), Dylan Carlson RF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0-2 in the Padres' last eight games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cardinals

Padres vs Cardinals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is a tough matchup to call, and I likely won't be playing a side at all, but if forced, I'll roll with the Padres. I can't back Dakota Hudson on the mound when he's barreling towards a lousy showing. 

Putting aside the pitching for the moment, let's talk about a few trends:

• The Padres are 15-3 in their last 18 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.

• The Padres are 9-2 in their previous 11 games as road favorites.

• After a loss, the Padres are 13-3 in their previous 16 games.

A little overwhelming, right? The point is that San Diego is pretty good in these spots where it has lost a few. According to Covers matchup pages, it's attracting a more significant share of the money. That's likely a big reason why.

Now back to that pitching matchup for a second. Never mind Hudson being due for a blowup game (because it may not be relevant in this one), let's talk about his troubles with issuing walks. Throughout his career, it's been the biggest issue for him, and once again, it's a problem. He is in the Bottom 20% of pitchers in base on balls percentage to start this season. That's a problem when facing a Padres lineup that draws the third-most walks per game in baseball.

I'm rolling with the Padres here, it's not a confident view, but it seems like the right side. My projections are even more confident. They see San Diego winning this game about 60% of the time. That suggests it should be priced closer to -150 than the current option. 

Prediction: Padres moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Now to a much more confident view, I like the Under today because these starting pitchers excel at what the opposing batters struggle with. 

On the Padres side, Darvish has improved his fastball more this season. I talked about the sinker pitch improving as a putaway pitch as a key to his late improvement, but this has also assisted. Power pitching is where the Cardinals have seemed to struggle more, with the lowest batting average, OPS, and BAbip vs. Power first pitchers than any other type. I like Darvish to continue to improve upon his steady improvement with a strong start today.

I've picked on Hudson quite a bit. Undoubtedly, I'll be fading him a lot over the next month, but I'm not sure this is the spot where he has a bad game. He is one of the most skilled pitchers in the league at inducing the ground ball, which the Padres do a lot of. They are ninth in the league in ground-ball rate and sixth in topped-balls. Some of his advanced metrics point to a guy that shouldn't even be in the league, but he does one thing very well, and I like him to continue that one thing today.

This total has bounced around from 8 to 8.5 throughout the early morning. Unfortunately, we are getting the 8 number at the time of publication. I still like it, though. My projections have this hitting around a 65% clip, so I'll gladly take it. 

Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at Caesars)

Best bet

Nothing to overcomplicate here. I'll isolate the pitching matchup and take the F5 Under. This number is relatively juiced, but my projections still see a considerable value. I have this going Under the posted total nearly 75% of the time. That makes me pretty comfortable laying the juice here. 

The above handicap speaks for itself, but it's worth mentioning that these teams have battled some injuries over the last week. From the Padres' perspective, the hitter that may be able to take advantage of Hudson's deficiencies is Manny Machado, but he's still working his way back from a lower back injury. It's probably a big reason he has just one hit over his last three games, which only strengthens this view.

Neither of these pitchers is dominant, which has given us a good number. I believe that oddsmakers are discounting the distinct advantage each pitcher has over the other lineup. I'll look to exploit that. 

Pick: First five innings Under 4.5 (-140 at FanDuel)

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