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Quote Originally Posted by jebaum: Don't ignore playing middles with live betting. NBA- Game of Runs. Agreed NBA is a game of runs. I'm new to some of this terminology though, could you please tell me what it means to "play midles" with live betting? I'd appreciate it a ton. Thanks for weighing in guys
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youneverover | 7 |
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created a topic
Is Brady's injury enough to deter you away from betting the Pats over Jags
in NFL Betting Lot's of chatter that there's a ton of bets coming in on the Jags in light of recent news of Brady's hand injury.
What do you guys make of this?
Something tells me it's being blown out of proportion and Brady will still be at least 90% effective. I guess the million dollar question is would 90% effectiveness get the job done against the NFL's top rated Defense? Or here's another one.
Can Bortles match Brady and take it to the Pats D? |
youneverover | 1 |
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I've had some good fortune lately with betting favourites to win who fall down by double digits come the late 2nd or 3rd quarter. In these cases a line that starts off at say Boston Celtics -600 at home. Drastically drops to +150 (roughly )when down 12 in the middle of the 3rd quarter.
I almost feel like betting a big favourite and laying chalk at $600 to win $100 is pointless, when you could just be patient and take the chance that they don't blow out the opponent and do fall down by double digits later on in the game.
While it's true the better team down double digits doesn't always come back to win it, for me it seems like this strategy to date has been more effective than betting a home dog at +150 prior to game time..
I lean towards in play betting offering a substantially better chance to win money as opposed to wagering on pre game lines.
What has been your experience with this? And which side do you lean towards more? |
youneverover | 7 |
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Thanks for weighing in guys.
Yes the Pelicans are an incredibly frustrating team to watch. I think I'll stick with Portland. Win or lose, the value is there with what I and others believe to be the better team
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youneverover | 8 |
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Initial lean is Portland at +135 moneyline. But a lot of that hinges on whether Anthony Davis plays or not, or how effective he is if not at full health.
Lots of the public seem to be on the Pelicans here. Am I missing something here? Portland is one of the better road teams, and Lillard is back.
Who's your pick? |
youneverover | 8 |
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Celtics, Clippers looked like easy money and they were.
I made the mistake of thinking Cavs would be as well, I thought wrong.. Still a productive day overall + 4 619 between NBA, college basketball games with some parlays in there. Basketball offers the best value plays of all sports in my personal belief! Hope you guys had a good day out there.
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youneverover | 5 |
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Also keep in mind the true elite teams of the league.
G state, Houston, Cleveland, Boston.. ( But mostly Cleveland and G state are notorious for pacing themselves throughout the season). It's not uncommon to see them play down to their competition and lose games they should win. It's also not uncommon to see them play up to their competition to set the tempo for a potential playoff matchup verses their given opponent that night. Simply put.. These teams know they are good enough they can coast through the regular season pick their spots.. and still come out with a top seed in their conference while resting key players for a playoff run. Tonight is one of those nights I think you see what Cleveland is really capable of. Tonight should be a night they play Up to their competition.
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youneverover | 6 |
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created a topic
Cavs should beat the Raptors -140 ( Don't fall for Toronto's home record)
in NBA Betting
I hope I'm not missing something here. But is it just me, or does everybody else see a Cavs win tonight?
I know the Raptors are very tough at home (14-2) While conversely the Cavs are (11-10) on the road, and mired in a losing skid winning just 4 of their last 10 games. If you know the history between these two teams however, you will know the Cavs have had Toronto's number in years past. At Home or on the road. And this is virtually the same roster minus Kyrie Irving but with more depth. The Raptors are down 2 key players in Lowry and Ibaka, and you know what that mean.... Lots and lots of Derozan. Problem is Cavs will likely key on this like they have in the past and force others to beat them. Unless JV or someone else like Powell go off for 30+ I just don't know if the Raps have enough talent to hold off Lebron, K love, Thomas, Wade and the guys... And I'm a Raps fan saying this.. I think Cleveland will win straight up on the road here tonight.
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youneverover | 6 |
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I was looking at bet365's odds. It looks like the Blue Jays and Cardinals are the favourites to win it all. Both are sitting at +425 odds. I saw the Royals at +475.. and then there's a big dropoff, with some of the other contenders like the Dodgers coming in at +700 etc...
My question for you all is , is it worth betting on any darkhorse underdog this year? The Giants always seem to do well in the post season and I saw their odds at +3000ish.. The Yankees and Pirates offered solid value as well. Who are you all betting on? and is it safe to say it's not even worth betting the Jays or Cardinals at such limited value at +425?? The Jays scare me especially, considering they don't have the post season resume as the cardinals, are still a very young team and outside of David Price, don't have a trusted post season arm in that starting 5 ( Buerhle has regressed with age) |
youneverover | 5 |
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I got them in play at -120 down 5 end of the 3rd.. that's solid value I feel.. who knows what happens here. I like Mavs chances though
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youneverover | 4 |
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yes or no?
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youneverover | 4 |
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replied to
62-44 Portland up 18 at half over New Orleans. How bad did vegas blow this line?
in NBA Betting like it man
and agreed Honest- Guy.. that tempo was a horrible idea |
youneverover | 14 |
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replied to
62-44 Portland up 18 at half over New Orleans. How bad did vegas blow this line?
in NBA Betting NONEED 4 LUCK-
I'm on board with you bro |
youneverover | 14 |
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replied to
62-44 Portland up 18 at half over New Orleans. How bad did vegas blow this line?
in NBA Betting biggest thing that is mind boggling for where the oddsmakers heads were at is realizing Portland is 21-6.. Pelicans are 13-12.. and Portland has wins against elite teams to top it.Deeper stats aside , sometimes you just can't read too deep into a team being in a bad spot schedulewise. Should have they been an underdog best of the back 2 back on the road and exhaustion- yes. But a team this talented at +6.5 is a joke. I'm betting NO to hopefully win the game 2nd half, and hope the exhaustion hits Portland hard here.. +600 value is worth a smaller wager |
youneverover | 14 |
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No NEED 4 LUCK- agreed man.. nothing is easy.. but Pelcians 2H
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Tien2262 | 15 |
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created a topic
62-44 Portland up 18 at half over New Orleans. How bad did vegas blow this line?
in NBA Betting I saw Portland as a +6.5 opening underdog . This is the NBA, and 18 point leads at half are never completely safe. I would expect a big Pelicans push. But can somebody tell me is this just a fluke, or did the oddsmakers really miss something here? I know Portland is back to back on the road, and a triple overtime at that, but this is still a very young athletic team. It doesn't effect them the same it would a veteran team like the Spurs. Who bet Portland?? If you have a cash out option in play, I would withdraw big funds for Portland and hedge with New Orleans. the odds for the Pelicans to come back is +600..
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youneverover | 14 |
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then PHX should crush New York here
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youneverover | 5 |
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haven't seen the line on this one yet, but with melo out and the knicks tanking the season any chance you guys see any value in the suns on the road today?? Is Dragic back? |
youneverover | 5 |
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Here's my list of the best value picks for potential Superbowl winners 1. Seattle Seahawks +375- 2. Green Bay Packers- +500 3. New England Patriots +300 4. Denver Broncos +350
You hear the word irony, and you see me post the top 4 favourite teams to hoist the Lombardy trophy and may find that comical. But I'm being realistic. There is zero chance teams like the colts, cowboys, cardinals, lions etc.. though showing promise are ready to take down those 4 teams listed above. they're a different beast come playoff time. and its just not worth wasting your money on a long shot like dallas at +1800 or whatever it is. I see SEA as having the most value at +375.. simply because they have two very winnable games on their schedule to clinch top seed and homefield throughout the playoffs.. and we all know you just don't want in Seattle. What do you guys think?? I'd rather Seattle at +375 hosting say a Green bay, v.s rolling the dice on whom of Denver or new England gets in at an even lesser value +300 NE
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youneverover | 2 |
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replied to
Do you guys have any NBA betting strategy that is consistently profitable?
in NBA Betting I'm hearing some people are anti NBA betting. I get it, if you have terrible stretches.. tuning into an NBA game makes you cringe when you flashback to how much $$ you went through on it. Maybe I was just lucky, but I went through a streak on the NBA where I was consistently nailing 75% of my picks and making great profits. I feel the biggest mistake the oddsmakers make, is jack up the line so high once the score gets in double digits. I always exploit that. Sure if you go down 13 by half, youre not going to come back and win them all.. but teams always seem to make it interesting and the immense value is worth a look |
youneverover | 21 |
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