vegaspete

Member Since:August 2006
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Draft this Sunday View

Have two more opening in a 10 team $100 buy in fantasy league if anyone is interested, collecting buy ins through LeagueSafe.com, $600 1st, $300 2nd, $100 3rd place prizes. Click link below if interested...


https://yho.com/nfl?l=614843&k=18afc528529dccd7&soc_trk=lnk&ikey=4c41fa1608d1066b

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I am starting a 10 team $100 buy in fantasy football league, prizes will be 1st $600, 2nd $300, 3rd: $100. Unfortunately I am unable to just join a money league as I live in Nevada where it is banned, so we will be playing as a non money league on Yahoo and collecting the buy ins (and distributing the prizes) through LeagueSafe. If anyone is interested let me know, I need six more people. View
I am wondering how far back you go for stats? I used to mainly look at last few starts, last 10 games, etc. but when looking at sabermetrics if I remember correctly, a longer period of time was much more accurate, not talking years, but at least a few months. Also, do you account for daily lineup changes or injuries? Thanks for sharing, always interesting to see how others look at things, always check your threads. View
There may be others, but the only one I know of is South Point, like you said. You can put money into an account there and place wagers with your phone. Same with the M, whos app I like better than SP. View
I am looking to do some testing on theories and need an excel spreadsheet that includes at minimum... date, away team, away score, home team, home score, side and total for the last few seasons. Anyone know of a site that has this for free or at least pretty cheap? I would also take a site that displays all this info on one page so I could copy and paste into a spreadsheet, I have found one with everything but odds, but it would take so long to input all that info. Thanks. View
I am looking to do some testing on theories and need an excel spreadsheet that includes at minimum... date, away team, away score, home team, home score, side and total for the last few seasons. Anyone know of a site that has this for free or at least pretty cheap? I would also take a site that displays all this info on one page so I could copy and paste into a spreadsheet, I have found one with everything but odds, but it would take so long to input all that info. Any help is greatly appreciated. View
Over or Under??? View
Or if you don't want to rank each player, maybe at least rank as something like definitely, probably, maybe, definitely not. View
I play in a 14 team fantasy baseball league, with 7 keepers, for fun and to help me out, which 7 of these players would you keep for 2014 and in what order would you rank them, thanks.

Scoring: H2H Each Category
Batting Stats Scored: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP
Pitching Stats Scored: K, W, SV, HD, ERA, WHIP

Joey Votto, Cin 1B
Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B  
Jose Reyes, Tor SS
Michael Cuddyer, Col OF, 1B
Carlos Beltran, FA OF
Starling Marte, Pit OF
David Ortiz, Bos DH
Yadier Molina, StL C
Anibal Sanchez, Det SP
Koji Uehara, Bos RP
Austin Jackson, Det OF
Jhonny Peralta, FA SS
Brett Gardner, NYY OF  
Marlon Byrd, Phi OF
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I am very interested in sabermetrics and applying math and formulas to assist in handicapping games, is there anyway you could explain a little about how you use fibonacci? View
Lines I have...

Nebraska Over 66.5
Clemson Under 34.5 1st Half

Still plays? Thanks.
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Heres the lines I got...

Northern Ill +3
UL Monroe +22.5
Texas A & M Over 66.5
Ohio +20.5
Florida St -10
Temple +28.5

Still plays for you and which would you consider small and which ones bigger plays?
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Anyone know of a website that has the MLB accuscore win percentage predictions for free? ESPN used to have them, but not anymore. The NY Post website has them but they aren't updated very often. Thanks. View
For those of you that understand and calculate Expected Value and Return On Investment, which one and what is the cut off that you use to decide whether to make a wager?

For example, the line for tonights game is San Francisco Giants -121, but I believe they have a 60% chance of winning, which transfers over to a break even line of -150. 

If my projection of 60% is correct, then I would make an average of $11.60 (Expected Value) over time for each bet (of $121) I made with this exact criteria, for a Return On Investment (ROI) of 10%. 

If anyone sees an error in my calculations, please let me know. You can find the formulas for these by googling them if you are interested but don't understand what I am talking about.
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[Quote: Originally Posted by dude1618] FIELDER just spent 4 lovely days in the dry heat around the 100 degrees in Arizona.]

Arizona plays in an air conditioned dome.


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What if for example, the opening line for the favorite was -117, but right before the game it is at -110, is it a play, or would you consider that too much line movement? View
May = 45/58
June = 22/34
July = 21/28

So am I right that the record for May was 45 wins out of 58 games for 13 losses, etc. That would be a total of 88-32 for a win percentage of 73%?

I know it comes down to judgement, but could you explain a little more about how you look at line movement, would a game automatically be a no play if the dog and fav had switched at some point during the day, or are you really only looking at movement during the 20 minutes prior to the game? Thanks.
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Rudy happy is Toronto's leading scorer , covers censorship at work!!! View
Still believe in the system, it is still ahead by a lot, and I have had 9-1 days, 1-9 days will happen, but I don't think I will be posting it anymore, its just extra work, and I don't want to be responsible for anyone else's wagers, good luck everyone. View
Sorry guys, not posting tomorrow. View
Liking the Tigers a lot too. View
Great way to start the day 0-2. F**K!!!!!! I like the Orioles a lot. View
I am a NY Giants fan, but just bought tickets and will be driving down to Phoenix to take another drunk trip down the Salt River, and attend the Seahawks @ Cardinals game on NFL's opening weekend. Thankfully, Giants play on Wednesday, so I won't have to miss their first game. View
@Shawty Your choice, every game can lose, but I would put that line around -280, so yes, for me it would still be a play. View
Obviously, proper money management also plays a huge factor, only bet a few percent of your bankroll per game, and you will be able to outlast the losing streaks and continue making money when the winning picks back up, which will happen to even the best cappers. I also don't like betting 3 units on this game, and 1 unit on that game, etc, because you then you can go 2-1 and lose money. Might as well just not play the one unit games if you don't think they are profitable bets. View
And I think most people just bet on the teams they think will win, but if you bet a team that wins 60% of the time and the line is -150, you are only going to break even over time. If you bet a team that wins 40% of the time and they are +160, they will lose most of the time, but over time you will make money. It seems obvious, but a lot of people don't follow logic when betting. Also, many people will never bet a large favorite, but if a team is -195, and you feel they will win that game 72% of the time, meaning the break even line should be about -257, then you should be betting that game.  View
It did, but I have a little bit different criteria for determining value now, and I was betting more money per game and less games before. Most people think it is better to bet only a few of the best games for the day, as did I for a long time, but now I think it is better to bet almost all the games where you feel there is value. When betting only two or three games, luck (good or bad), is more of an issue. For example I had Pittsburgh last night, they were up 7-1, and I still feel it was a good play, but they ended up losing. With more games, as long as long as you are still only betting games with value, not just to play more games, the good and bad luck tends to even out, and in the end you will make a profit. View
Going through my first rough patch but it is going to happen. I will also be putting one unit on a three fight UFC 150 parlay, just for fun, will not count it for the record (Henderson, Cerrone, & Stone for +263)

My plays are based on games where I feel one team has a better chance to win than the odds indicate, it could be an underdog, or a large favorite, for now, as long as I feel a team is undervalued they will be a play.

All plays are one unit, bet $100 on underdogs (i.e. bet $100 on +135 to win $135) and to win $100 on favorites (i.e. bet $155 on -155 to win $100).

I kept track of my new method for making picks for a week before posting, but I am only counting posted plays toward my record and profit. Whenever possible, I will post my plays early enough so people can follow if they choose to do so. Good luck, on to today's plays...

WEEK #1: 46-31, +$1673 (NOT POSTED)

WEEK #2: 39-19, +$1322 (POSTED)

WEEK #3: 46-29, +$1901 (POSTED)

WEEK #4:

MONDAY'S PLAYS (6-4, +$273)

TUESDAYS'S PLAYS (6-4, +$154)

WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS (4-4, -$128)

THURSDAY'S PLAYS (1-3, -$314)

FRIDAY'S PLAYS (5-5, -$70)

SATURDAY'S PLAYS:

PIT -170
STL +126
MIL -175
ATL -108
ARI -130
TOR +139
BOS -138
BAL -132
DET -143
LAA -220
NYY/TOR OVER 9.5 -110
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Wow, when I first checked the games, BOS, PIT, NYY, ATL, LAD, TEX, and OAK were all winning, STL was tied, MIN was losing, and WAS hadn't started. Still ended up being a losing day. View
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