uste_13

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uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
JAN 23 Wednesday Card Tally

FAVE to DOGS (4-7)
PUBLIC to FADES (3-8)

WEDNESDAYS (since Jan 2, 2013)

FAVE to DOGS (15-29)
PUBLIC to FADES (14-30)

PROPS* 
EXPERT PICKS went 3-1 today.

Went 2-0 again today with DEN ATS and GSW ATS. 2-0 for the past 3 days, and 8-1 since Sunday.

Again, this is just tallying numbers I've been noting. This does not conclude anything at all. It just assists me at times and adds to my leans every now and then.

If someone out there can conclude anything from this data, I'm all ears. 

GL TO ALL.

uste_13
NBA Betting > Everyone is on DENVER, hmm TRAP? > View Post
uhmmm, i think you were the who's been TRAPPED? Won myself on denver!

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
DEN won. So far, 1-0. GSW pending. Tally of the day after the card today. BOL!

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
To further analyze the WEDNESDAY trends, here are the numbers I have tallied for the past WEDNESDAYS starting January 2

NOTE: ATS only

JAN 2
fave to dogs 
6-6

public to fades
4-8
_____________________________________________________

JAN 9
fave to dogs
3-8

public to fades
4-7

________________________________________________

JAN 16
fave to dogs
2-8

public to fades
3-7
_______________________________________________________


That's it! Just do the math. 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
hmm, you're right! nope, I'm not seeing a new trend, and if I do, I'll post 'em up quick. So far I'm posting what the numbers show. No BS. 

Hey Mavin, if you could be so kind to post the trends that you have collated long before this, (for each day e.g. monday, tuesday...) of the week), I'd be very happy to test the numbers on it. 

From the time that I had been taking notes on this trends, I have been making good fortune. Having started this Sunday, I'm 6-1, and 2-0 for two consecutive days. Last week, I was 11-3. So, hopefully, this run continues and the trends I'm tallying will help us more.

I have not been regularly posting my picks since I have a day job and capping is just a hobby for me. Just a recap my pks for today are DEN ATS and GSW ATS.

BOL TO EVERYONE. 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
I really cant exactly recall where or who I heard it from, but they said that weekends, wednesdays and fridays are dogs/fades day..I'm not really sure about that so taking notes and tallying has been my way of checking if this is really what it is..

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
OKC@GSW +2.0
pk - GSW +2.0

IMO the bookies want us to believe that since GSW was beaten by LAC, and OKC won against LAC, ergo OKC wins at GSW? hmmm..

OKC is playing its 3rd game in 4 outings. PLUS the 2 games they played was against (IMO) elite teams. One of those match-up even ended up in an OT loss. Fatigue must be setting in..

RLM angle is also seen in this match up. Public pounding OKC, and still the line moved in favor of OKC. Classic recipe for the RLM. As I have tallied in my personal notes, RLM resulted in a 10-4 ratio. Out of 14 times I've applied this theory, I won 10 times and lost the rest. Not bad. I guess I'd be applying it one more time.

BOL TO ALL!
BTW, I only write about ATS trends, I've never played totals. But if someone out there could educate me about connections or trends of the totals in relation to spreads, I'd be very happy. THANKS!

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
As promised, here are the stats I've collated this past few days

MONDAY (1/21)
- Martin Luther King's day - HOLIDAY
- Monday was said to be a FAVE day, but since it's a HOLIDAY, I deemed it more fit to the weekend trend of DOGS and FADES day.

FAVES to DOGS (ATS ONLY)
7-1-1

PUBLIC to FADES (ATS ONLY)
7-1-1

TUESDAY (1/22)
- Said to be a FAVE day. 
- Let's see the trend...

FAVES to DOGS (ATS ONLY)
3-1

PUBLIC to FADES (ATS ONLY)
3-1

WEDNESDAY
- Said to be a DOGS and FADES day.
- For all the expert pick lurkers out there, expert picks last Wednesday turned out 0-3
- here are my picks and short write ups

DEN@HOU -2.0
pk - DEN +2.0 (2u)
This is not my write up but damn I've got to share this one. Really well written. Go see for yourself. This is from "swolesbee"

"These are the top 2 teams in the NBA as far as pace goes. Transition is the name of their game for them. Neither team has much of an offensive post presence and neither team is very effective in a halfcourt setting. The difference here is that Denver has very good transition defense(5th in the NBA), Houston does not(26th). When both teams have to run some offense Denver actually is more effective than Houston (I will rarely ever get to say that about Denver). If Houston can't score on the break all they do is try to break a team down off the dribble(Iso plays with Harden), or they run a pick n roll. They really don't have any threats with the roll man and most of their pick n rolls or pick n pops are designed for the ball carrier(Harden or Lin) to get their own shot. Teams are starting to figure this out though and as a result the Houston offense is really struggling lately. Denver matches up-very well because as I mentioned they play great transition defense but also because they are really good at defending the ball handler in the pickn roll. They are top 6 in the NBA in all 3 of these phases: transition defense, isolation plays, and defending the pick n roll ball handler.

Denver also has 2 other HUGE advantages. 
Bench play and offensive rebounding. Denver doesn't have a low post presence per-say but they are the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Last game Faried alone had 9 offensive rebounds lol.  This in my opinion could be the difference as Houston has nobody on their roster capable of keeping Faried of the boards. Denver has the 6th best bench in the league, Houston has the 20th. Denver will bring Andre Miller, Corey Brewer, Wilson Chandler, and Javale Mcgee off the bench. Houston brings Toney Douglas, Patrick Beverley(d-league call up), Markus Morris, Greg Smith, and Delfino off the bench. 

The way to beat Denver is to slow the pace down, make them play half court offense, box out their bigs, and attack them with a low post presence. Houston absolutely has no chance at doing any of that."

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101539315&page=1

- I also noticed that the Reverse Line Theory is applicable in this one. Public pounding on HOU, and the line moved from -2.5 to -2.0 still in favor of HOU. hmmm.. Reverse Line Theory tallied (in my personal notes) at 10-4. Took DEN right away.

CONT. ON ANOTHER PAGE...





uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by uste_13:
I am testing another theory on today's card. I'll be choosing sides depending on the line movement (if there is) and the public view. The only bet I've made today is on IND and PHI. Other bets stated here are for the purpose of seeing if this theory is correct (or not). Fingers crossed. If this turns out great, we can definitely increase our chances of beating the books.

This theory is basically going against what the bookies expects us to do.

"REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY APPROACH"

IND@MEM -6
pk - IND
- The public is clearly on the IND side on this one. On the other hand, line moved from -7 to -6. The bookies are baiting us on taking the MEM by decreasing the line, so I did the complete opposite. I did put a unit play on this one. Hopefully it turns out great.

SAC@NOH -6
pk - SAC
- Same thing with the IND-MEM matchup. Line moved in favor of NOH so I picked SAC. That simple. 

HOU@CHA +7
pk - HOU
- Line moved in favor of CHA. Picked HOU.

MIN@ATL
pk - ATL
- There is a slight movement in favor of MIN. Picked ATL.

BRK@NYK -3.5
pk - NYK
- There is a very slight increase in the line in favor of BRK. Picked NYK.

SAS@PHIL +6 (POD)
pk - PHIL
- Line movement favors SAS. Picked PHIL in this matchup with 1unit wagered. 
- Line moved for SAS in spite of the public betting on SAS. PHI enjoys the home court advantage, PLUS a revenge factor angle. This also has the FATIQUE FACTOR THEORY, SAS playing 3rd game in 4 outings. 

I was not able to read the other games so i'll stick with this. 

AGAIN, this is only for the sole purpose of testing if this trend is applicable or not. The picks I have made does not take into account other factors so as to make this experiment a control of other settings to come. It is also a MONDAY, and last week I observed that FAVORITES won and covered most of the card. 

PS. Hopefully, no one ends up bashing me for this. LOL

Once again, whatever ur picks are, BEST OF LUCK. 



So far, 6 games have been played and 3 more to go. The tally shows the following:

MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY - Monday/Holiday

RP Approach
1win-3loss-1push (sas@phil still ongoing)
- this approach is not that useful as I thought...

Dogs to Faves ratio
  4dogs-1fave-1push

Consesnsus 
4faders-1public-1push 

standing today:
IND@MEM - won 1u
SAS@PHIL - won 1u

2-0 today

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
So far, RAA tallies at 1-1.

NOH won (pkd SAC) 
IND won (pkd IND) + wagered 1u in IND, yeah!


uste_13
NBA Betting > What about Crap-lanta? > View Post
for the record, I think ATL will cover. 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by phixer:
how can you trend today as regular monday. it;s a holiday

You're right my man. If we put the MONDAY factor away from the equation, the reverse psychology is still played. It just so happened that 4 favorites and 2 dogs came out from this experiment. For what it's worth, the results of today's card will be put on the holiday/weekend list and not on a monday trend. 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
Thanks MAVIN.

As an additional info on this experiment I'm doing, I'm leaning on 4 FAVES and 2 DOGS. Plus the MONDAY FAVE DAY angle. If this turns out well, MONDAYS will definitely be a  day!

OOPS. No jinxing just yet! 

Will tally the findings after today's games.

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
I am testing another theory on today's card. I'll be choosing sides depending on the line movement (if there is) and the public view. The only bet I've made today is on IND and PHI. Other bets stated here are for the purpose of seeing if this theory is correct (or not). Fingers crossed. If this turns out great, we can definitely increase our chances of beating the books.

This theory is basically going against what the bookies expects us to do.

"REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY APPROACH"

IND@MEM -6
pk - IND
- The public is clearly on the IND side on this one. On the other hand, line moved from -7 to -6. The bookies are baiting us on taking the MEM by decreasing the line, so I did the complete opposite. I did put a unit play on this one. Hopefully it turns out great.

SAC@NOH -6
pk - SAC
- Same thing with the IND-MEM matchup. Line moved in favor of NOH so I picked SAC. That simple. 

HOU@CHA +7
pk - HOU
- Line moved in favor of CHA. Picked HOU.

MIN@ATL
pk - ATL
- There is a slight movement in favor of MIN. Picked ATL.

BRK@NYK -3.5
pk - NYK
- There is a very slight increase in the line in favor of BRK. Picked NYK.

SAS@PHIL +6 (POD)
pk - PHIL
- Line movement favors SAS. Picked PHIL in this matchup with 1unit wagered. 
- Line moved for SAS in spite of the public betting on SAS. PHI enjoys the home court advantage, PLUS a revenge factor angle. This also has the FATIQUE FACTOR THEORY, SAS playing 3rd game in 4 outings. 

I was not able to read the other games so i'll stick with this. 

AGAIN, this is only for the sole purpose of testing if this trend is applicable or not. The picks I have made does not take into account other factors so as to make this experiment a control of other settings to come. It is also a MONDAY, and last week I observed that FAVORITES won and covered most of the card. 

PS. Hopefully, no one ends up bashing me for this. LOL

Once again, whatever ur picks are, BEST OF LUCK. 


uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
Just a quick observation. Been keeping tallies of discreet trends over the past week. Noticed that underdogs win/cover most of the time during weekends, just like last night. Monday last week, I also noticed that all the favorites, except MIA, won and covered. Hmmm. Any thoughts on this would be very appreciated. :)

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
So far, favorites have been covering all the games today except for MIA. Just 2 days ago, underdogs have also covered all games except for MIA giving a blowout. 

Just my thoughts 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
I will definitely update the tally on those theories  every now and then. My bookie only plays ATS games so covering every game is a must for me to bank in goodies. 

RLM (4-3)
TTG (4-1)
FFT (5-0)

Again, no single theory is absolute. These will only help us in making wiser decisions. GOODLUCK TO ALL! 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by x3shift:


already on sac . i also read the news about them moving to seattle.. such a shame. sucks to a city that does everything to keep them there. all about



If SAC covers today, fatigue theory gets 6-0. They better do, coz I just put 3units on them. 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
SAC -5.0 (my bookie)

FATIGUE FACTOR - CLE is winded up for sure. 4th game in 5 days. Played against LAL last night and was given a blowout. PLUS SAC rested and fumed to win coming from being given a blowout too. SAC NEEDS this win to get going again.

Nonetheless, whatever your picks, may it be the Seattle Supersonics, BEST OF LUCK! 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
Here's a little contribution of mine. Hope it helps 

For the past few days, I have been tallying and tailing games according to some "theories" I have learned on this thread, other threads and some personal observations. First I'll state and describe the theories, then I'll state the How to win part and lastly, the tally how it went the past few days (about a week). Please do note that the tally is not my standings/wagers, but rather the game results as a whole. I study the line and use these theories in choosing winners. If it wins then 1-0, it it loses, then 0-1.So here goes... (hope this doesn't confuse anyone )

Reverse Line Movement Theory
This is when an (obvious) underdog and a (obvious) favorite is set-up in such a way that the line moved in favor of the favorite despite the heavy public betting on the favorite. They say that this line movement attracts the bettors to wager on the side which the line (movement) favors, so as to make Vegas "richer" by making the underdogs win/cover the game. 
How to win? They say that betting on the underdogs makes winners most of the time. This is where the saying "fading the public" comes from.
The tally (4-3)


The TRAP Games
This is when a line is called "fishy." 
For example, OKC@WAS +1.0
Obviously, people will jump on OKC, sleep, and then wake up as winners after the game. This is pretty self-explanatory. This are the type of lines where the spreads does not actually conform to what people perceive as fairly set spread. If the line stinks, then it's fishy indeed.
How to win? Go with the underdogs! WTF BUT WHY?!! Let's go back to the OKC@WAS +1.0. FOR VERY OBVIOUS REASONS, people will bet on OKC. If all turns out well, the consensus will show about 70%-90% of bets on this side. For you to understand this, let's say that you are the bookie. As the bookie, what side do you want to cover? The favorites?..then pay them ALL the BIG BETS they wagered? Or have the dogs win and get that 70%-90% bets from the public? 
The tally (4-1)



Fatigue Factor Theory
This is when a team is playing its 4th game in 5 days, 5th game in 7 days,etc. This also applies to 4 road games back to back. Well, you get the picture. When one team is rested, and the other is winded up, expect for a let down.
How to win? Well, go for the rested ones. Simple. This Theory is tricky, but (personally) effective. Look for teams that have played 4 games in 5 days. Look also for those teams that played 2OT the night before...those that played with the MIA, OKC and LAC in 3 days straight..even a well rested WAS will kill any team that is fatigued.
The tally (5-0)


The theories stated above are NOT FACTS and does not apply to ALL games. OKC are called road warriors and the fatigue theory wont make you winners against this team. RLM does not work all the time, favorites are called favorites because they can crash teams if they wanted to. And lastly, TRAP games may not be a trap after all. But if used wisely and backed up with a good mind, I'm pretty sure that every now and then, these will make some of us winners.

BOL TO ALL!
p.s. Thanks MAVIN 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
@melosjumper

Care to elaborate? Wanna hear your train of thought on this kind of games..


uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
DAMN SWEEP!!!! 0-4!!!   

Bookie been beating me bad for 3 weeks now. Hopefully to bounce back on tomorrows games...

Here they are (latest lines)  

OKC@WAS +10.0
SAS@NOH +7.5
CLE@CHI -8.5
DAL@UTA -4.5
ORL@POR -6.5

Just leaning on the SAS and OKC on this one. Also the away teams look promising. Any thoughts?

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
bye bye 2u 



uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
bye bye 2u 



uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
so far so good..AMIR JOHNSON 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
 MAVIN

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
No Biggie, Enjoi 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
@Enjoi

Haha was just putting some humor in my post, sorry If it got you reading sh*t. 

As your name says, ENJOI the posts and the games! 
Keep it light buddy 

uste_13
Website Promotions > Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how > View Post
BTW, I wagered on the Raptors not to actually win (well hopefully it pays off too....fingers crossed) but also to test the theory of playing along the side of the bookie.

Raptors or Thunders, Miami or Washington. BEST OF LUCK TO US! 
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