totalguy

Member Since:October 2002
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totalguy
MLB Betting > INDIANS IDIOT MANAGER > View Post
What's his name?

totalguy
MLB Betting > No Run 1st Inning Daily > View Post
Good to know that you haven't lost any money on these NOs because you will. YES or no play. Historically the YES hits at just over 50% and is highly correlated to the full game O/U.

totalguy
MLB Betting > No Run 1st Inning Daily > View Post
You probably should put the lines you are playing on all these NOs as you are likely playing a lot of chalk. You can't win playing the NO. 95% of the time the correct play is either YES or no play. You'll figure that out soon enough. GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > does sonny gray > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by DanTos8715:
can't blame gray for this

they can't hit


Exactly.  2ER in 8IP for Gray.  Good enough for the win most nights.

totalguy
College Football > Bovada not offering some games > View Post
Shocking.

totalguy
College Football > What do you guys think of http://www.sportsbookbashers.com/ > View Post

totalguy
MLB Betting > A TEAM to Score YES/NO 1st Innings!!! [8/20/2013] > View Post
Over the long run, you're gonna need +105 or better on games where the O/U is between 7 and 9.  Those are all coin flip games over the long run on the first inning prop.

GL with your plays.

totalguy
MLB Betting > FORCE TO GO TO ANGEL GAME TONIGHT > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by whodamanny76:
I think you should skip the game and spend some extra time in English class !




totalguy
MLB Betting > A TEAM to Score YES/NO 1st Innings!!! [8/20/2013] > View Post
Did you get +money on each of those lines?  All 6 of those games are basically coin flips, between 48% and 52% chance on the YES.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > yanks hit a lucky 3 run hr oh well big deal > View Post
Cool story bro.

totalguy
MLB Betting > This may be crazy..but im on the draw +1050 in tor/nyy > View Post
Without digging into the numbers, I would suspect that the % of games going into extra innings is correlated to the size of the ML favorite.

totalguy
MLB Betting > This may be crazy..but im on the draw +1050 in tor/nyy > View Post
The hold on those 3 way MLB bets is usually 3 to 4 times higher than the hold on the 2 way bets.  It's ridiculous.



totalguy
MLB Betting > This may be crazy..but im on the draw +1050 in tor/nyy > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:

doesn't know that an mlb draw is just another recently created prop with extremely high hold percentage usually played by suckers 


THIS^^^

totalguy
MLB Betting > ***ARMADILLO SPORTS - MLB*** > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

For August its Yes 129   No 128 really close


Yup.  Like it's been the last 9 seasons I've been playing/tracking this prop.  The YES hit 52-53% of the time from 2005-2007 and now around 51% of time since then.

totalguy
MLB Betting > ***ARMADILLO SPORTS - MLB*** > View Post
Looking at those first inning pitcher stats, you would think that the YES rarely hits on that prop.  Actually, the YES hits more often than the NO.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > HOTT NO RUN$ IN FIR$T INN > View Post
It all depends on the line with the first inning prop.  You're likely getting bent over badly on those NO prices.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > Something's Fishy > View Post
Looks like this thread is getting moved too.

totalguy
MLB Betting > First inning detroit no score > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by rammerjammer10:
I played $50 in yes score in 1st inning. +105


The first inning prop on all games of O/U from 7 up to 9 are pure coin flips.  Any time you can get +odds on the first inning prop on any of these games, take it.  Give me +odds on a coin flip every time.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > First inning detroit no score > View Post
If you have the YES at +115, I'd hammer that instead.  That a +6.3% EV.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > First inning detroit no score > View Post
-145?  Wow that is a ridiculously bad line!!!  That's an EV of -11.6%.  I don't think I've ever seen an EV that bad on the first inning prop.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > First inning detroit no score > View Post
It all depends on the line.  For the NO on a 8.5 O/U game, you need +110 or better.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > this game will decide stl season > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by redsxfn3321:
Hahahahaha lololol at decide their season. 40 games left. You mean this will decide your betting season


This.  Nothing creates more myopia than sports betting.

totalguy
MLB Betting > come on Min...score more....get 3 more points > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by capaxone:
I got in late... over 9.5...arggg one more point pls


And there you go.  You get to keep your lunch money.  Congrats!

totalguy
MLB Betting > come on Min...score more....get 3 more points > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Holdat2:
joe mauer just made a layup


That looked more like a safety.

totalguy
MLB Betting > come on Min...score more....get 3 more points > View Post
You're asking a lot.  Baseball "points" are hard to come by.

GL

totalguy
MLB Betting > Dodgers 3 to 1 to win the world series > View Post
A little too excited about the Dodgers. A 60% chance of them winning it all would make them over a -400 favorite in each of their 3 postseason series.

totalguy
MLB Betting > 0-13 MINNESOTA TWINS FRIDAY THREAD! > View Post
Sorry friend but there's no money to be made long term chasing random data such as day of week results.

totalguy
MLB Betting > 0-13 MINNESOTA TWINS FRIDAY THREAD! > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by fitchris562:
The great thing about riding a streak with a few wins is you can stop when the train stops. You don't have to stay on. Now it's time to ride the Twins TGIF Win Streak!


So silly Chris.

totalguy
MLB Betting > B.S. > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by cisco:


Tomorrow is the last day for new chases. I've been in the systems & strategies section since day one.


I'll probably have football & baketball coming up. Check over there or my google docs.




He doesn't understand what you're doing and is being sarcastic.

totalguy
MLB Betting > vince scully... > View Post
Vin is a true legend and a national treasure.
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