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Quote Originally Posted by Eagles987: this team cant do garbage wow Doesn't help when Duquesne shoots 55% 3Pt's (10/18) and 41% from the arhc.
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Eagles987 | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Karnzy: LOL...meaningless thread...your reply is meaningless kid....Taking out the top 2 NFL teams ok will give you that, but if you read the thread Kid you will see that they will not have the 12th man which arguably is a big factor on teams making mistakes on Offense. You sound like a rookie... Are you talking about the 24th ranked Total yards offense in SF that put 308 yds up on Seattle in Seattle? A rookie like you needs to research more... OK -but did you do the same thing for the Broncos? You would need to remove the worst defensive teams the broncos faced to quantify your analysis. Right now your analysis is very flawed.
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Karnzy | 52 |
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FSU +8 1/2***
Good luck
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stuartFL | 1 |
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i have both pegged as well. good luck.
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ALTABLOCK | 29 |
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english 101...
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seattleseahawks | 53 |
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It was a tale of two halves last week as the Seahawks jumped on the
Saints early and carried a 16-0 lead into the 4th quarter before their
dominating defense let up a bit and let the Saints back in the game.
With a 23-8 lead and only 2:40 left on the clock the cover was
back-doored into a push as the Saints scored on a 9 yard TD pass with 26
seconds left on 4th and 6 after the Seahawks played soft, trading
yardage for clock on the drive. With the late scare and non-cover in
combination with a subpar passing performance from QB Russell Wilson,
Seattle seems to have lost some of its luster in the public’s eye.
That, coupled with a dominating second half performance by the 49ers in
their convincing 23-10 win and cover in Carolina, has given us some
value on the Seahawks in this game. San Francisco made plays when they
had to and were the better team for sure but they will be facing a
different animal in the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Not only have
the Seahawks been dominating at home (16-1 SU and outscoring opponents
29.4-12.9), but they have dominated this 49er team twice on this field
in the past 13 months, winning last season 42-13 and earlier this year
29-3. Throw in the fact that the 49ers are coming off of three
consecutive road games (the last two in different time zones) and have
played physical games the past three weeks against the Cardinals,
Packers and Panthers and you have a team that could be a bit fatigued.
Add to that the fact that they are playing against the best team in the
league by my metrics in the most difficult venue to play in as a
visiting team and you have an unbelievably difficult task. The 49ers
have been pretty good on the road under Jim Harbaugh but they are only
4-3-1 ATS on the road off of a road game, including their last two.
From a matchup perspective, I have made adjustments based on personnel for the 49ers using only games that Crabtree has played to calculate offensive numbers and using only games Aldon Smith has played to calculate defensive numbers (I didn’t use the Carolina game for Smith as he was just coming back and only played 12 snaps). Seattle has been pretty healthy outside of offensive line combinations and Percy Harvin so no adjustments were made. With Crabtree the 49ers are clearly better offensively and he has made a positive difference in both the run and the pass games. Match-up calculations and common sense predict that the 49ers will try to run the ball as they have been good, even on the road, and have been even better with all of their personnel. I don’t think that the loss of FB Miller and the questionable status of backup FB Tukuafu will make much of a difference as the 49ers run game is well schemed but it certainly won’t be a benefit. The Seahawks are good defending the run, particularly at home where they allow 96 yards at 3.7 ypr against teams that gain 107 yards at 4.2 ypr on average and present some unique problems because they are even better on the back end. If the 49ers can’t run the ball effectively here it will be very difficult to win. Using all games this season, the Seahawks have the best pass defense in the NFL and allow just 180 yards at 5.0 yps to teams that gain 228 yards at 6.2 yps on average. The 49ers pass offense is improved with Crabtree in the lineup (+.42 adjusted yps difference versus without him in the lineup) but I expect that they will have a hard time here with the combination of excellent overall defense and crowd noise. Russell Wilson is markedly better at home than he is on the road passing the ball (+.4 adjusted yps difference home versus away) but he is well above average using full season numbers as well (averaging 6.9 yps against opponents that allow 6.1 yps). There is a lot of talk about a slump for Wilson as he had his lowest passing output of his career last week but I am not really concerned as his overall body of work is much more indicative of what he will do moving forward. Also, the weather was clearly a factor last week with high winds and a game plan that was predicated on attacking predominantly with the run. An interesting stat on Wilson is that he has also been much better with the lead this season as he has a 17-2 TD/Int ratio as compared to when he is tied or trailing that ratio drops down to 9-7 TD/Int. As important as it is for the 49ers to not fall behind early, it is equally as important for the Seahawks. He’ll face a tough 49ers pass defense that has allowed 219 yards at 6.1 yps to teams that gain 233 at 6.4 yps on average with Aldon Smith in the lineup but I expect him to play well here, especially since everyone is talking about how much better Colin Kaepernick is (which is not the case). Wilson unfortunately won’t have WR Percy Harvin to throw to but the Seahawks have played almost the entire season without him anyway and I still have them rated as the best team in the NFL. My model, adjusted for personnel, has the Seahawks favored by 6.9 points and they also qualify in a 57-27-2 situation while benefitting from a negative 9-27-1 situation that plays against the 49ers. Dr. Bob’s situation from last week is also in play here once again (16-33 against SF with a 5-11 record in the Championship Round and is 0-3 in division playoff games and 0-3 against teams playing their fourth consecutive road game). Weather should not be a factor in this game with no wind and temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Everyone seems to like the 49ers in this game and I particularly like cases where numbers, situation and spot all line up on the other side of public opinion, which is what we have here. I will have a 2-Star Best Bet on Seattle but I think that line is likely to go to -3 (-120) at some point this weekend so I recommend not playing Seattle now and waiting for the line to go to -3 (-120) or better. If the line goes to -3 (-120), as I think it will, then I will grade the play at -3 (-120) and will send an email alert that the line has moved. If the line doesn't move to -3 (-120) then I will grade the game based on the line an hour before kickoff. I could have waited for the line to move to -3 (-120) before sending out the analysis but I thought it was better to alert everyone that I will be on Seattle and that I'm waiting for the line to move to -3 (-120) and that I recommend you to do the same. |
TRAIN69 | 51 |
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It was a tale of two halves last week as the Seahawks jumped on the
Saints early and carried a 16-0 lead into the 4th quarter before their
dominating defense let up a bit and let the Saints back in the game.
With a 23-8 lead and only 2:40 left on the clock the cover was
back-doored into a push as the Saints scored on a 9 yard TD pass with 26
seconds left on 4th and 6 after the Seahawks played soft, trading
yardage for clock on the drive. With the late scare and non-cover in
combination with a subpar passing performance from QB Russell Wilson,
Seattle seems to have lost some of its luster in the public’s eye.
That, coupled with a dominating second half performance by the 49ers in
their convincing 23-10 win and cover in Carolina, has given us some
value on the Seahawks in this game. San Francisco made plays when they
had to and were the better team for sure but they will be facing a
different animal in the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Not only have
the Seahawks been dominating at home (16-1 SU and outscoring opponents
29.4-12.9), but they have dominated this 49er team twice on this field
in the past 13 months, winning last season 42-13 and earlier this year
29-3. Throw in the fact that the 49ers are coming off of three
consecutive road games (the last two in different time zones) and have
played physical games the past three weeks against the Cardinals,
Packers and Panthers and you have a team that could be a bit fatigued.
Add to that the fact that they are playing against the best team in the
league by my metrics in the most difficult venue to play in as a
visiting team and you have an unbelievably difficult task. The 49ers
have been pretty good on the road under Jim Harbaugh but they are only
4-3-1 ATS on the road off of a road game, including their last two.
From a matchup perspective, I have made adjustments based on personnel for the 49ers using only games that Crabtree has played to calculate offensive numbers and using only games Aldon Smith has played to calculate defensive numbers (I didn’t use the Carolina game for Smith as he was just coming back and only played 12 snaps). Seattle has been pretty healthy outside of offensive line combinations and Percy Harvin so no adjustments were made. With Crabtree the 49ers are clearly better offensively and he has made a positive difference in both the run and the pass games. Match-up calculations and common sense predict that the 49ers will try to run the ball as they have been good, even on the road, and have been even better with all of their personnel. I don’t think that the loss of FB Miller and the questionable status of backup FB Tukuafu will make much of a difference as the 49ers run game is well schemed but it certainly won’t be a benefit. The Seahawks are good defending the run, particularly at home where they allow 96 yards at 3.7 ypr against teams that gain 107 yards at 4.2 ypr on average and present some unique problems because they are even better on the back end. If the 49ers can’t run the ball effectively here it will be very difficult to win. Using all games this season, the Seahawks have the best pass defense in the NFL and allow just 180 yards at 5.0 yps to teams that gain 228 yards at 6.2 yps on average. The 49ers pass offense is improved with Crabtree in the lineup (+.42 adjusted yps difference versus without him in the lineup) but I expect that they will have a hard time here with the combination of excellent overall defense and crowd noise. Russell Wilson is markedly better at home than he is on the road passing the ball (+.4 adjusted yps difference home versus away) but he is well above average using full season numbers as well (averaging 6.9 yps against opponents that allow 6.1 yps). There is a lot of talk about a slump for Wilson as he had his lowest passing output of his career last week but I am not really concerned as his overall body of work is much more indicative of what he will do moving forward. Also, the weather was clearly a factor last week with high winds and a game plan that was predicated on attacking predominantly with the run. An interesting stat on Wilson is that he has also been much better with the lead this season as he has a 17-2 TD/Int ratio as compared to when he is tied or trailing that ratio drops down to 9-7 TD/Int. As important as it is for the 49ers to not fall behind early, it is equally as important for the Seahawks. He’ll face a tough 49ers pass defense that has allowed 219 yards at 6.1 yps to teams that gain 233 at 6.4 yps on average with Aldon Smith in the lineup but I expect him to play well here, especially since everyone is talking about how much better Colin Kaepernick is (which is not the case). Wilson unfortunately won’t have WR Percy Harvin to throw to but the Seahawks have played almost the entire season without him anyway and I still have them rated as the best team in the NFL. My model, adjusted for personnel, has the Seahawks favored by 6.9 points and they also qualify in a 57-27-2 situation while benefitting from a negative 9-27-1 situation that plays against the 49ers. Dr. Bob’s situation from last week is also in play here once again (16-33 against SF with a 5-11 record in the Championship Round and is 0-3 in division playoff games and 0-3 against teams playing their fourth consecutive road game). Weather should not be a factor in this game with no wind and temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Everyone seems to like the 49ers in this game and I particularly like cases where numbers, situation and spot all line up on the other side of public opinion, which is what we have here. I will have a 2-Star Best Bet on Seattle but I think that line is likely to go to -3 (-120) at some point this weekend so I recommend not playing Seattle now and waiting for the line to go to -3 (-120) or better. If the line goes to -3 (-120), as I think it will, then I will grade the play at -3 (-120) and will send an email alert that the line has moved. If the line doesn't move to -3 (-120) then I will grade the game based on the line an hour before kickoff. I could have waited for the line to move to -3 (-120) before sending out the analysis but I thought it was better to alert everyone that I will be on Seattle and that I'm waiting for the line to move to -3 (-120) and that I recommend you to do the same. |
cesimmns | 5 |
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The Chargers lost a heartbreaker in their home opener on Monday Night Football in Week 1 after leading by 21 points in the third quarter to the Houston Texans. They were beaten rather convincingly in the stats overall, being outgained 263-449 at 5.2 to 6.0 yards per play and dominated in the time of possession. They really lost the game after multiple second half mistakes featuring every unit, including a penalty on a field goal attempt that was later converted into a touchdown, several third and very long conversions, and a Brian Cushing interception that was returned for a touchdown. This was an emotional loss on a national stage and now they travel across the country to play a 10:00AM PST start against a non-conference team with a new and difficult offense to prepare for. Philadelphia opened with a convincing win at Washington, leading 26-7 at halftime while blanking the Redskins offense in the first half. The Eagles clicked on offense right out of the gate, featuring an offensive line that blocked well, a running back in LeSean McCoy that demonstrated great speed and quickness, and a scheme and play calling aptitude that put players in positions to be successful. I was nearly equally impressed with the Philadelphia defense in the first half as they demonstrated creativity, lack of convention and a well-designed and executed game plan that featured multiple delayed and varied gap blitzes. Some of their early effectiveness was no doubt due to the rust of the QB, who had not played in preseason, but it also spoke to their ability to game plan around the weaknesses in the Redskins offensive scheme. I have this game lined right around 7 so the number looks to be fair based on my adjusted ratings for Week 2. I do, however, have a very good situation that plays on the Eagles here and is 91-30-4. I am a little concerned about the spot for the Eagles as they are in a National spotlight sandwich having played on MNF last week with a Thursday night game at home against their old coach Andy Reid next week. However, I believe that it is still early in the schedule for a look ahead spot as the raw energy and hope of a new season/coach/system is strong. In addition, the starting DL of the Chargers played quite a bit in their Monday night loss. With a lack of significant rotation, limited depth, and with Houston having a significant advantage in time of possession (36:31 to 23:29) there could be some tired players having to travel several time zones and play a hyper-speed offense.
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LeagueCapper | 66 |
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Only playing two sides today.
Miami +3 Mephis +6 (got this on Thursday morning before line move) Good Luck. |
stuartFL | 3 |
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Home court advantage in the playoffs is 4 1/2 points, so the Knicks being favored by 5 points in game 1 of this series suggests that they're just 1/2 a point better than the Pacers. That's ridiculous. New York is a very good team when Amare Stoudemire isn't messing them up and the Knicks are 36-11 straight up and 31-16 ATS without Stoudemire and with Carmelo Anthony in the lineup. New York is 18-5 ATS home in those games, including 14-1 ATS when not laying more than 7 points. Indiana, meanwhile, is only 2-7-1 ATS this season when visiting a team with a win percentage of greater than .600 and the Pacers apply to a 9-30-1 ATS game 1 situation. The Knicks are an underrated team that plays well at home
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stuartFL | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by garryfafer: im 70% sure that pacers will win ,this season they are strong ,ny is stronger ,but with the injuries + carmelo makes 10/35 shots ,only 10good of 35 ,plus hes little injury What injuries??? Last time I checked everyone is healthy for this series.
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garryfafer | 13 |
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Baltimore. They remind me of the Giants. They just win..
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originator | 48 |
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You mean the legacy of him and his coach cheating for all those "winning" years? How ironic, no SB ring since spygate.... darn him and his team.
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TheSituation559 | 31 |
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oh, come on... those were bullshit calls. Get out of here!
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BigWinner888 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by petey15: love coming here for some good jokes hahah pats cover -10 easy coming from a Masshole... |
kjrpat | 16 |
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No. Baltimore covers easily. |
tonyrome | 4 |
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Sorry but this thread needed a bump...
What a total d bag.
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BiggDoug | 181 |
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Eat poop
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originator | 21 |
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Big dugg is taking a big poop
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BiggDoug | 181 |
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BiggDoug | 181 |
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