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I think that's a sound strategy, but I think I did that once. Florida lost the first half, tied or took a small lead in the second, then blew it at the end. |
HappyKane | 5 |
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I put my Alabama bet in earlier today at 1.5. Slightly annoyed and hoping the extra point doesn't matter. I've bet big on Florida as a short home fav/dog against a better team, and they usually let me down. I strongly considered taking them on Saturday against South Carolina, but they blew it yet again. So I'm a never Florida bettor now. Hope it doesn't bite me in the ass the one time I bet against them. |
LB_Dirtbags | 13 |
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I had UAB ML huge when they were up 12. This one hurt a lot.
The live line moved huge during halftime. The books realized they made a mistake during the first half.
What's next devil? I need a bailout play. Colorado or Stanford? Or rigged NBA? |
gambling-devil | 14 |
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Sup Buddy! Long time. That's actually the game I'm playing tonight too.
Loyola is pretty much a standard play for in many ways. But it was a little too smooth of a play for my liking. I may end up kicking myself, but I think I'm gonna go with Dayton tonight. |
gambling-devil | 3 |
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@Kaufee It's cool man. Betting is about weathering the ups and downs. I had my worst week of the year the week before the Super Bowl. Think I lost like 11 bets in a row. Then I hit the KC + Under, was doing OK, then hit another bumpy road on Saturday, losing that Marquette game. I won tonight, but you never know what tomorrow will bring. I usually play mainly dogs, but it's becoming almost exclusive at this point. I saw a video earlier this year where the guy was like there's 3 possible outcomes in betting. 1. The Underdog Covers 2. The Favorite Covers 3. The Favorite Wins But Does Not Cover
So that has stuck with me lately. Cuz it feels like taking the dog you have more likelihood of winning on a longer term basis.
Covers actually has the game marked as a push with a line of 8, so it probably got there wayyyy late and closed there. I think that's misleading though, cuz when it happens in the NFL, when there's been 7 days with a certain line, and it moves to a push based on the last 5 minutes or something, that's not right in my book. Have a drink and regroup. Go again tomorrow. It's only Monday. |
Kaufee | 24 |
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@Kaufee
No need for name calling. Just discussing the game. With under 10 left and Iowa St hovering around the line, the Iowa St. player missed BOTH free throws TWICE, so it was going on with both teams. And it happens with basketball in general. If you're up 10 pts with under a min left, you're gonna give them that 2 pointer all day knowing that you're going to get fouled immediately after. The cover ultimately came down to the Iowa St. player making both free throws twice, because the Houston players made all their free throws as well. Yes, I found it odd that Iowa St ultimately decided not to foul at the end (I've seen teams foul down 9 with 2 seconds left), but even if Houston makes both, you've got 17 seconds left up 10, and conceding a layup happens often, if not most of the time. The cover was lost well before the end of the game. Iowa St. shot 53% from 3. That's well higher than their whole game percentage. Houston was 7/24. And that was the difference in the cover. Not trying to be a dick. I had at Marquette against UCONN on Saturday, which was a similar type game, where the favorite played like they should have. But that's the luck of the draw. Iowa St. just has a knack for covering, which is why the public was on them today. They've covered 12 out of their last 14 games, and 5 in a row coming into tonight. When a team has defied probability like that, I usually tail or stay away. |
Kaufee | 24 |
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You should feel happy to be honest. The line opened at 9.5 this morning, then went to 9 early. Then 8.5 before game time. I never actually saw 8 personally. And the second half line was -3.5 at most places.
So you should be happy about the push, because everyone else that had Houston lost.
I had Iowa St. +5 first half cuz I got it earlier. That was a lucky push. But Houston should have been up HUGE in the beginning. Iowa St. was like 2-12 from the field and only got 2 total shot attempts in the first 4 mins. They didn't hit their shots and capitalize, and that's why they didn't cover. Also, Iowa St. was covering basically that entire second half except for a couple of mins. |
Kaufee | 24 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:
Purdys fiance makes Taylor Swift loook like the man that she is. I agree with the the other guy. She's a solid 6.5-7. She's above average looking, but she isn't a wow. |
CRRECORDS | 19 |
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Oh yeah, and Travis Kelce spent $1M for the private box for his family and Taylor's family.
He's made 77M in his career (not counting the podcast). He makes $12M a year, let's just say 7M after agent and taxes. So he basically paid 15% of his annual take home on that box.
To clarify though, since they run a sports podcast, I wonder if those tickets could be written off as a business expense after they talk about the game and the experience on their podcast next week. |
DoYouMind69 | 66 |
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There's a lot of bitcoin millionaires out there. And Tesla millionaires.
The young generation is all about "experiences". Just to say you were there, with Mahomes and Taylor Swift. People got money. How many super bowls have you been to? How many super bowls has the average person been to? The other day I saw some young guy on facebook selling a car for $339,000 with 500 miles on it. People certainly have the money. They just did more intelligent things to make it than betting on sports where 90% of people lose, whereas the stock market is up 100% of the time over any 10 year period in history.
The S&P 500 was around 700 back in 2009. It's now 5,000, and that's not including quarterly dividends. That's 7x your money in 13.5 years. |
DoYouMind69 | 66 |
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replied to
Warriors +6500 to win it all is the best value you will ever seen in your life.
in NBA Betting Worth a shot in my opinion. Just wished Chris Paul would have stayed healthy, so they could iron out all the kinks of him being in the rotation early on in the season. When he comes back, I'm not sure they know what he's gonna be. My guess would be the second unit lead. |
JimmyGape | 11 |
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NBA is the most frustrating sport to bet on because of these sick runs they go on. Like back in the day an 18 pt lead you'd win 85-90% of the time.
Nowadays I feel like it's almost 50/50.
Like last night Portland was up 9 with 4 mins left in the 3rd, and they were down 12 with like 10 mins left in the 4th. Denver went on like a 19-0 run. Denver actually pushed the -15 cover for 1 possession. Utah was down 12 in the third quarter and ended the quarter up 4. The Nets were down 21 pts tonight and cut it to 4 or 5 I think. Then Dallas had it back up to 17 like 3 minutes later. Then the Nets got it back down to 5 4 mins after that. Chicago was down 22 at the half and won the game by 6.
In my opinion, this is what makes the NBA completely unwatchable. I'd never watch an NBA game just for fun until like the conference championships in the playoffs. And even then why even watch until the 4th quarter. I'd rather watch and bet college basketball any day over NBA. They have runs, cuz it's basketball, but you don't go on a 20-0 run in 5 mins like in the NBA. |
cheech1972 | 11 |
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I have the +15 and im getting nervous though. Denver -15.5 was +2200 a little while ago. Not that crazy now. |
Jerseyshore88 | 11 |
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At +470 ML i think that’s a ton of value for a team thats been winning 95% of th game. it’s 50/50 that they win in my opinion. |
Jerseyshore88 | 11 |
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Atlanta |
Paal | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ChOmP:
@slamspurs Goff maybe not this year but do you really think Detroit will pay him close to 50Mill !? Tuas worth 50 mill? Or close to it ?? I honestly don’t think either of these QBs are worth that much that’s insane to me..especially if they don’t make a deep run in the playoffs Daniel Jones made out like a bandit.. I’m pretty sure teams see that crap and understand now those one year wonders on there last year are sometimes just that.. a one year wonder kind of like Jaylen Hurts move been beating this drum for a while.. Jaylen had a one hit wonder year where everything fell into place perfectly with his type of play.. and don’t get me wrong he’s pretty good but in the end he is the Jaylen hurts of Alabama.. he can make some great throws but in the long term he’s a running quarterback..I may look like a fool in the future but I’ll die on this hill.. The Eagles fully rely on there passrush and the defense.. when that is not working it’s a HUGE problem considering they spent a lot hyper focused on the Dline neglecting everything outside of that defensively..Jaylen cannot carry the team this team is good when ahead.. also I would love to point this out about there defense.. there best player does not get enough credit.. Hassan Reddick is the defense if he is having a bad game it shows he is there bigtime playmaker..Reddick goes the defense goes... but Arizona exploited that defense even more.. you take Reddick out of the equation and that defense is not the same.. that team has locker room issues and dealing with adversity issues.. I love how Sirianni says “this is the time where we stick together” and he literally demotes the DC lmao you thought the defense is bad now just wait.. playoffs is a different beast and Matt Patricia is not the answer..
Tua and Goff will get paid the same reason that Daniel Jones got paid. It's not easy to find a franchise QB in this league. And it would not go well with the fan base if you have a playoff team (and in these 2 cases a legit Super Bowl contender), but let go of your QBs and drop out of the playoff hunt just because you didn't want to pay an extra $5-10M to your quarterback. |
ChOmP | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Ilost:
I hate Pittsburgh so much but the line says pound them. You can't take a team u know will rest and not care. Especially if they fall behind. If Lamar doesn't start the line will jump to 6 right away. I'm on them for a m.l. par with the raiders. Paying 1.5 to 1 great values. Book it !!! Thank me Sunday night. And g.l.
The line doesn't say pound em. The line says the Steelers have everything to play for, and the Ravens have zero to play for. Except it's not -6 or 6.5 because this is one of the biggest rivalries in sports, and Huntley has shown to be a decent QB when he has played. I'm skeptical. The last two games were the first time Mason Rudolph has had two good games in a row in his career. And his stat line wasn't even that great. He had 0 touchdown passes. The Steelers just killed them on the ground, which is an anomaly because Najee Harris has been horrible the whole season. |
Ilost | 13 |
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Claw, I'm not sure you can use any stats or numerical analysis in Week 18 where Sean McVay has already said he's resting all the starters except Puca until he gets the record. And I think he only needs like 2 catches and 30 yards to get there. With that said, I dunno if I'd give 4 points when the Niners are resting starters as well and starting Darnold at QB. |
theclaw | 52 |
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We'll see what he has in the tank. Probably find a lot more running room if teams aren't stacking the box and daring Lamar to throw like they did with Zach Wilson. |
Digitalkarma | 25 |
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I'm not reading all that past the first couple sentences. I think Atlanta beats New Orleans this weekend. I think Carolina makes a game of it against Tampa Bay, but they eventually win and Atlanta gets sent home.
I've seen the Falcons play this season. I've never seen a team try to give away a game repeatedly like they do. They don't have the offense, nor the defense to get out of the first round. They were the second to last team to lose to Washington this season. |
desertspade | 18 |
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