shivaseven

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shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers *** > View Post
I like the PACK in this situation and I think Hundley will look better after a week of preparation. Saints are a dome team that runs a precision offense and not so sure if a late October game works best for these kinds of teams. This line adjustment feels like it's about a FG too much and hard to figure out how the SAINTS can be a six point favorite on the ROAD. It's I.P.T (injured player theory) as most teams rally in their first game after losing a star player.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 7 > View Post
I really think Denver is the right side this weekend. I think it's really hard to judge the psyche of the Forty-Niners right now. I would have thought that last week down 17-0 after two consecutive overtime losses on the road would have been a spot to throw in the towel, the didn't and ended up clawing back in to the game and getting the cover. I'm leaning JAGS and not sure what you'll get from the up and down Ravens with MINNY off of a big win versus PACK.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers *** > View Post
I thought both the Patriots and the Buccaneers put in pretty shoddy efforts tonight. If you cashed on the Patriots tonight, don't get fooled into thinking they are back on track, but then like you said with the extra rest and the JETS on deck ...!

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 4 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by HarDix:
Always a bad idea to wager a game so far in advance.

LeagueCapper you are an amazing capper, and I have huge respect for you.  This should be a learning lesson though.  Wait it out, see lineups, bet right before the game.

Best of luck brother.


What are you talking about? If you are betting favorites it's almost always a good idea to bet into the lines early in the week, It's common knowledge that closing lines are, for the most part, a lot sharper than opening lines.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 4 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Not into totals much either, but I expect the Cowboys to move the ball easier than they have in the past so i'd lean over if I had to


Speaking about the MNF - TNF angle this trend is in play twice this week (SFR-ARZ, LAR-DAL) and is one more reason to like the DAL-LAR over.

op:day=Monday and p:day=Thursday and NB and o:NB

OU: 23-5-2 (8.73)

For those unfamiliar with the coding: Opponents play on MNF with no bye versus an opponent who plays on TNF with no bye.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers *** Best Play of the Month > View Post
Dolphins, Eagles, Ravens, Jags are all in very difficult scheduling spots this week end.

Teams playing at home off of two consecutive home losses against an opponent who is on the road for the third time in four games are ATS 5-1. I know 5-1, not much meat on the bone, but the cover margin is a whopping 15.92 which leads me to think this is a good spot for LAC. The only thing that makes me squeamish is trying to get a handle on the franchises trajectory, but so far the play calling and game management leave a lot to be desired.

p:HL and pp:HL and H and NB and oS(A, N=3)=2 and o:NB and op:DIV

ATS: 5-1-0 (15.92)

I'm hearing a lot of buzz about the Giants and have uncovered some tech trends and was wondering what's your take on this game.


shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Best Play of the Month *** Showdown in Green Bay > View Post
LEAGUE CAPPER:

Interesting play on SDG. Over the last 9 games the Packers have been absolutely fantastic in the first half of games outscoring their opponents 237-57. If I was playing this game, and I just might, I'd leave a little powder dry for a second half or fourth quarter bet on the Chargers if they are trailing large. It seems the Pack with big leads at home play a bit more conservatively in the second half. Stevie Johnson is out for SDG - ouch! What makes me nervous is SDG's decimated OL vs a Pack defense that leads the lead in sack percentage and has 16 sacks in the last three games. McCoy is a good bet in non-divisional games going 15-10-1 versus the numbers and ATS 7-3 out of conference as most wiseguys chalk this up to teams lack of familiarity with McCoys creative offensive schemes. I guess we will see a lot screens, dump-offs, and short passes to running backs to negate the problems up front. I think you are on the right side value wise, but not sure if it chalks up as a best bet. Good luck!!

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 1 > View Post
Note: Fisher after week 4 as a DOG

ATS: 60-41

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 1 > View Post
I agree with your comments on the STL-SEA game but a bit reticent because of HAWKS OL and I'm looking to play against HAWKS this year. Fisher always given kudos for his record as a dog, but I've noted he is more productive in this role later in season as he is only ATS 17-21 in the first quarter of the season throughout his career. 

team=Rams and D and game number<5 and season>=2012

ATS: 4-6 (-2.95)

team=Titans and D and game number<5 and 1994<=season<=2010

ATS: 13-15 (-1.25)

Thanks for posting up and looking forward to reading your stuff through out the season.

shivaseven
NBA Betting > *** NBA Monday *** > View Post
Cut'n and pasting - just saw this on another site and thought I'd pass it along. No opinion, either way, on this bet. GOOD LUCK

The Celtics are 9-1 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Has NE already lost the SB even if they haven't? > View Post
DEFLATEGATE will have zero effect on the outcome of this game. Jeremy Lane's comment that GRONK isn't that good, probably won't have any effect on the game, but it's just not that smart.

shivaseven
NBA Betting > *** NBA Thursday *** > View Post
LC a lot of guys are saying keep grinding, not me, I say take 3 days off. Press when you are in a groove and when you're not - back off! It's a long season, man! Good luck going forward.

shivaseven
NBA Betting > *** NBA Thursday *** > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:


 


Is this guy on Covers BB?


This was great stuff. I'd like to read him.


scalabrine:

pregame.com for my money the best ...

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Super Bowl Writeup > View Post
Your comparison of NEG's psychological state to the BUFFALO (0-4) super bowl teams is far-fetched to say the least. Would never make a bet on that information.

Seattle isn't that explosive on offense, especially at WR so I suspect BB will man up on the corners and concentrate on taking away RW's wheels and Lynch, so I'm looking at the under right now but still thinking about it.

In Seattle's defense, I think the more physical teams with the better run game and defense wins these games. I think this is a difficult game to handicap but I'm leaning NEG and the UNDER but I'm far from having made up my find and wouldn't be surprised to be on the other side on game day. Good luck going forward.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Super Bowl Writeup > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by begginerboy:
I already have Seattle in my futures bet but I'm willing to add on. Seattle just played one of its worst games (on offense) and NE one of its best (against a team that is, in all honesty, not very talented). This has changed public perception so that the line, which was initially set at Seattle -3 (and was -3 at the halftime of the NE game) is now pickem. I've watched this Seattle team all year and that was Wilson's worst performance (for 3.5 quarters). The guy just was not himself (and GB D also had something to do with that). He was not running, his decision making was poor and he was a turnover machine (all very uncharacteristic). Oh, and he was probably playing with a concussion (from midway through the 2nd quarter, I believe). As I mentioned in my write-up to that game, the game would be decided by how Seahawks O played against GB D and for 3.5 quarters they were terrible. Once they got going, GB could not stop them, as they wore that Packer D down. 


But Wilson is the real deal (not many QB's could have overcome that putrid performance, or have had the confidence in themselves to bring their team back) and he will punish that slow, obese D-line of NE's. Just go back and watch the tape of Ravens vs NE. Falcco had so much room to run, and move around, that it was comical. But he is not a runner, like Wilson, so he could not make them pay. Still, Baltimore was very successful at rushing the ball, while Indi has no running game, and I expect Seattle to run all over NE. 

Meanwhile, Indi's D made NE's Blount look like Eric Dickerson. That's won't happen against a stout Seattle D. So it will be Brady vs Seattle's secondary, which to me is a wash. Again, the game will come down to Seattle O vs NE D and I give Seattle the edge there, especially after they laid an egg against GB. 

Psychologically, I give a big edge to Seattle. It is a minor miracle that they have the chance to defend their title (after letting it almost slip away). I believe they will be much sharper in this game, and play looser, with less pressure (especially if they are dogs by kickoff, as this team loves playing with a chip on its shoulder). Now they are playing an equal (in NE) and have a chance to cement their legacy by beating another dynasty (which is a lot better than playing a big underdog that no one expects to win and that you've already beaten by 20 points). 

Meanwhile, NE is playing with a lot of pressure in trying to cement their legacy. Why? Because of all that has happened since winning 3 super bowls. Two SB defeats (in heartbreaking fashion), allegations of cheating (which have surfaced yet again throughout these playoffs) which cast a shadow over their legacy, knowing that this might be their last chance (with Brady and Bill), all of this will weigh heavily on this team (as will the media questioning them about cheating allegations for the next two weeks) and will make them play tight, especially in the big moments (not to mention, they won't be able to use the tricks they used to defeat the Ravens and Indi). 

Recall what happened to the Bills, after one crushing defeat at the hands of the Giants. They never recovered. NE has now had two crushing defeats, at the hands of the same Giants (ironically enough). Call it the curse of losing to the Giants in the SB (which Denver also suffered from, for a while). Once you win a SB or two, it's easy to win another but once you start losing them, it's easy to lose the next one. This will be a big mental hurdle for the Pats, in this game; especially if they fall behind.

Finally, while not home field exactly, Seattle is very familiar with this venue (as it is in their division) and has played some big games there. The memory of those wins, along with the familiarity of the stadium, will give them a certain comfort level that NE won't have.  

Good luck!


Interesting write-up but I believe that your analysis that Seattle has the psychological advantage in this game is pure speculation; that is hard to quantify. I'm not saying your wrong or right. However, there will be a home field advantage as SEA-PHX is a short hop for hawk fans so add 1.0 to Seattle's power ratings.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Seattle New England Vegas tells us something > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:
The big question is how will Seattle adjust to finally playing their first decent team in over two months and the best QB in the league .

I think it will show  early in this game the why the hell did i lay over a TD with Seattle posts will be out there probably before half time 

If you are following this logic you can get GBY +4 -105 is the play on the halftime line. This year DOGS on the halftime line ATS 7-1-1 not that that will have anything to do with this wager but hard not to miss that HAWKS have played better in the second half of recent tilts. That's the play I like.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Seattle New England Vegas tells us something > View Post
I wonder what kind of day Wilson will have running the ball. In week 1 he ran 7 times for 29 yards. Green Bay sometimes has problems with the read options as the last two times they exited the playoffs when CK ripped them to shreds on the ground. Keep an eye on Wilson.

2012 playoffs Kaepernick: 16-181 yards
2013 playoffs Kaepernick:   7-98 yards

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Seattle New England Vegas tells us something > View Post
MYSTICRICH: You know what the real teaser nightmare is for the bookmaker? Not having a SEA-NEG teaser covering but having both games fall within the teaser numbers for all four teams. It's entirely possible if SEA and NEG win from anywhere between 1 to 14 points and you have a 7.0 point teaser. It's entirely possible.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Seattle New England Vegas tells us something > View Post
Mysticrich:

NE opened at 7.0 and moved down to 6.5 - that wasn't public money moving the line down.

Historically 6.5 DOGS are a money winner and 7.0 favorites come in at 52.5% which is about the break even point when laying -110. Maybe, the market is telling us something.

D and line=6.5  ATS 185-145
F and line=7.0  ATS 226-207-25


shivaseven
NFL Betting > Before you Pound Seahawks this Weekend to Win by 8+ > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Shivaseven, you are forgetting the experience factor and the maturation of Wilson (how can you cap that). I'll take this year's Wilson over last year's even if last year's team was better.

BB, you make great points about Wilson and team maturity but I still think last years club was a lot deeper up front on defense and with the loss of Harvin and Tate they lack a bit of explosiveness on offense. I still think last year's HAWKS are 2.5 points better on a neutral. Last years HAWKS beat a very, very good 49er team to make it to the Super Bowl. This years team hasn't faced a top-notch team in the second half of the season. We will see!

shivaseven
NFL Betting > Before you Pound Seahawks this Weekend to Win by 8+ > View Post
LC, I posted this at another forum and it kind of feeds into this topic - always looking to take an intelligent contrarian opinion.

I'm trying to look at the HAWKS big picture and I'm wandering what direction the organization is heading and how it might effect their performance in the rest of the playoffs. So, if the 2013 Super Bowl champion Seahawks played this year's Seahawks on a neutral field in the playoffs what would be the point spread? I'm trying to gauge how good these HAWKS are and have to give them full marks for getting things done down the stretch but take a look at their schedule: Rams, Panthers, Raiders, Giants, Chiefs, Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams, and Panthers. Not exactly a stretch of murderers row and what if they face a PATS team that is vastly superior to this crew. They caught a lot of teams at the right time, no need to go into lengthy explanations as you guys are all following this closely.

2013 Seahawks -2.5 vs 2014 Seahawks

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Divisional Round *** > View Post
New England in spots weren't particularly good against the run, didn't run the ball well all day, and didn't come with much of a pass rush. I'd say that isn't a winning formula but Brady willed them to a win.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Divisional Round *** > View Post
I found a Carolina +7.5 -120 1st half as I figure the number is too much to pass up, especially with 1st half OU at 20. I don't know if it will cash but lots of value. Looking at Seattle over the 2014 season this bet would have went ATS 11-5, at home ATS 6-2, on the road ATS 5-3. These teams have a tendency to play low scoring games when they match up and down the stretch CAROLINA played two excellent defensive games on the road against Atlanta and New Orleans. Carolina and Seattle have played each other for three consecutive years so defenses will be somewhat familiar with what's being thrown at them. I see value with this play especially with the low total. Whether it cashes, we will see. Good luck going forward.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Divisional Round *** > View Post
LC, if you're going to play the Panthers, why not take 1H line at +7 as Seattle has a tendency to play better in the second half of games. That's how I'm going to play this thing if I pull the trigger. Good Luck

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Divisional Round *** > View Post
You might be right with regards to ATS 3-17 as I copied the numbers from some other source and the database I use goes only so far back but whether you are looking at 6 or 8 game win streaks both come in at SUP 4-4, ATS 1-7. By the way, I agree with your PATS take but will probably play it safe with a teaser bet. Good luck going forward!

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Divisional Round *** > View Post

I haven't bet this game yet but I'm throwing out this trend as food for thought - an embarkation point for further discussion. I used the following trend to cash a ticket on the Ravens the year they won the Superbowl. Teams that are on an 8 game winning streak and are now playing a divisional home game off of a BYE are ATS 3-17. You're probably saying "hey wait a sec Seattle has only won 6 games" - yeah, you're right but if you run the numbers with a six game streak, as Seattle is currently enjoying, you get some pretty good numbers. Here's the SDQL for this situation:

week=19 and week=p:week+2 and streak>=6 and F

SUP 4-4

ATS 1-7

I think this is a good system because you're getting value, the odds makers have probably hung a couple of extra points on Seattle, and the last thing a streaking team needs is a break from their routine, a momentum buster so to say ... Anyways that SUP 4-4 looks tempting even thought it's a small sample size. Interesting discussion here - good luck going forward.

I love this system play because it is counterintuitive and the numbers clearly spell out that something is going on here despite the small sample size (ATS 3-17) how else could you account for streaking playoff teams going down in flames at such a high rate.


shivaseven
NFL Betting > Your P.D.M.(points dont mater) near year's end update.... > View Post
These numbers are running very close to the historical norm and it's a massive database, but thing is just pick a winner - sometimes not as easy as it sounds. Good luck going forward.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** > View Post
The end of the first half - Patriots had the ball and a first down deep in their own territory and Miami had a full slate of timeouts. BB decided to run the ball into the line three times instead of running a regular set of offensive plays. NE punts and Miami gets a real nice punt return and with first down and about 11 seconds left in the half the Dolphins hit a 30 yard TD pass down the left sideline. One of the few times that BB has blown it.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Just looking for write-ups Fade. To his credit he did respond.

Wow, I disagree with this comment 110 percent. I think LC is a good handicapper but if you don't allow for constructive criticism these forums are rendered useless. Every time someone disagrees with LC shouldn't be misconstrued as a someone who is a hater.

shivaseven
NFL Betting > *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** > View Post
I took the Lions in a teaser figuring that a rookie QB on the road vs the Lions' defense will have a tough time - and don't forget that Megatron is back, but most of the trends back the Vikes in this spot.

Lions off a 30 point offensive performance ATS 1-13

Teams on a 3 game homestand that have won the first two games ATS 33-57-1
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